GRAPHIC-苦痛 貿易（する） or same 貿易（する）? 投資家s 辞退する to 倍の on 後退，不況 bets
By Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones and Alun John
LONDON, July 13 (Reuters) - It was not meant to be this way. The big 貿易（する）s 支持する／優勝者d at the start of 2023 look redundant thanks to AI mania in 株式市場s, and long-予報するd 後退，不況s that were supposed to 解雇する／砲火／射撃 up 直す／買収する，八百長をするd income have 証明するd elusive.
Slowing growth was meant to make it a mediocre year for world 在庫／株s. Yet here they are up 13%, with the 'big tech' 始める，決める up over 70%.
社債s were supposed to 決起大会／結集させる as 後退，不況s brought 率 削減（する）s, but borrowing costs and 10-year U.S. 財務省 産する／生じるs are higher and everything risky, from bitcoin to 現れるing market 負債, has 粉砕するd it out the park.
Data 示唆するs 後退，不況 危険s remain high, but 給料 and U.S. and European 利益／興味 率s are also still rising - so stick or 新たな展開?
Here are five big calls 投資家s are now making.
1/ STICK WITH BONDS
Francesco Sandrini, 長，率いる of multi-資産 戦略s at Amundi, Europe's largest 基金 経営者／支配人, said the group started the year 肯定的な on 財務省s as it positioned for an end to U.S. 率 rises and the world's largest economy turned lower.
"We were wrong, like all the 資産 経営者／支配人s in the world," he said.
"We may be wrong for another couple of ４半期/4分の1s," he 追加するd, 説 a meaningful 経済的な 減産／沈滞 was "a 事柄 of time".
投資家s 投票d by Reuters in January 推定する／予想するd 10-year 財務省 産する／生じるs to 落ちる to 3.25% by end-2023 but sticky インフレーション and hawkish central banks have kept 産する／生じるs higher.
Those 産する／生じるs are now 近づく 4%. U.S., German and British 2-year 産する／生じるs just touched their highest since 2007-2008.
And the 財務省 産する／生じる curve, 広範囲にわたって 見解（をとる）d as a 激しく揺する-solid 後退，不況 指示する人（物）, is more inverted than any time since the 早期に 1980s.
主要な／長／主犯 全世界の 投資家s 長，指導者 全世界の strategist Seema Shah said she 持続するd her 見解（をとる） that 政府 社債s would do 井戸／弁護士席 with 後退，不況 still likely by year-end.
2/ FOMO IN FULL SWING
Bets against 公正，普通株主権s have been left in tatters as the frenzied excitement around 人工的な 知能 has sent the 最高の-sized U.S. tech companies that now 支配する the 全世界の 索引s up a 連合させるd 73% this year.
But those stellar 伸び（る）s also mean the largest 10% of U.S. 在庫／株s now （不足などを）補う 75% of 全体にわたる U.S. 公正，普通株主権 market cap. This 集中 level, によれば 絶対の 戦略 研究, is the highest since 1932.
JP Morgan 警告するd in a 公式文書，認める to （弁護士の）依頼人s: "FOMO (恐れる of 行方不明の out) is in 十分な swing, there is complacency 存在 built into 在庫／株s,", pointing to the low levels of 塀で囲む Street's '恐れる 計器', the VIX volatility 索引.
Trevor Greetham, 長，率いる of multi-資産 at 王室の London 資産 管理／経営, said he had been buying 公正，普通株主権s "on contrarian grounds" since October but now stood ready to move into 社債s and gold.
Florian Ielpo, 長，率いる of 大型の at Lombard Odier 投資 経営者／支配人s, is 用心深い that 重要な 指示する人（物）s such as U.S. 製造業の data and European 購入（する）ing 経営者／支配人 indices are souring.
"It is important to understand that 感情 is bullish and the 大型の-経済的なs are bearish and you need to reconcile the two," he said. "Can we lead off 感情 for another two ４半期/4分の1s? I 疑問 it".
3/ LAND OF THE RISING YEN
The big FX bet for 2023 was for the 率-極度の慎重さを要する yen to 強化する 予定 to U.S. 率 削減（する）s and Japan ending ultra-loose 通貨の p olicy.
No 調印する yet though, and the yen, which started 2023 around 131 per dollar, is now sitting just under 140 after a late June trip to 145.
The dollar 索引 is below January levels as the euro , 続けざまに猛撃する and スイスの フラン 決起大会／結集させる.
Athanasios Vamvakidis, 長，率いる of G10 FX 戦略 at Bank of America, 推定する／予想するs the 米国紙幣 to 強化する again, with the euro 落ちるing to $1.05 from around $1.10, thanks to the Fed keeping U.S. 率s high before the 結局の 後退，不況 supports the 通貨 on 安全な-港／避難所 企て，努力，提案s.
He 予測（する）s dollar/yen at 147 by end-September.
Morgan Stanley just turned "tactically bullish" on 中国's yuan に引き続いて its poor start to the year.
4/ FRAGILE CHINA
Spluttering data, 所有物／資産／財産 market woes and meek 経済的な 刺激 have also 破産した／（警察が）手入れするd new year bets of a Chinese 小型の-にわか景気.
在庫／株s there have underperformed and 'junk'-率d Chinese 負債, mostly in the 所有物／資産／財産 部門, has 苦しむd another relapse.
証明するing the 予報官s wrong in a 肯定的な way, 現れるing market 地元の 通貨 負債 has 配達するd an 8% 'total return' year-to-date, one of the strongest six-month 業績／成果s in the past 10 years.
That's thanks to the developing world 存在 ahead of the curve ーに関して／ーの点でs of switching from 率 引き上げ（る）s to 削減（する）s.
This has 削減（する） the 付加 利益／興味 率, or 'spread', 投資家s get for buying 地元の FX 現れるing market 社債s rather than U.S. 社債s の近くに to かつてない lows, which has been enough for Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan to dial 負かす／撃墜する their bullish calls this week.
5/ CLATTERED COMMODITIES
There might not have been a 後退，不況 yet but 商品／必需品s have been clattered this year as if ther e had been.
JPMorgan points out that 投資家 positioning across energy, base metals, 穀物 and oilseeds and 環境の/炭素 markets is 大部分は on a par, or even 女性 than, levels seen at the 頂点（に達する） of COVID-19 panic.
主要な／長／主犯 全世界の 投資家s' Shah said she still 推定する／予想するd 商品／必需品s to continue to struggle "because a combination of U.S. 減産／沈滞 加える 中国 減産／沈滞 should mean weak 需要・要求する."
Longer-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 供給（する） 強制s meant the 部門 was 価値（がある） moving 支援する into, though, on any 調印するs of stronger Chinese 刺激 or that U.S. 需要・要求する will 回復する once the 心配するd 後退，不況 is over.
(報告（する）／憶測ing by Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones and Alun John Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and 示す Potter)
