中国's lead 輸出（する）s 解除する LME 在庫／株s but 使い果たす Shanghai: Andy Home
By Andy Home
LONDON, July 25 (Reuters) - 中国's 輸出（する）s of 精製するd lead remained 強健な over the first half of this year, 延長するing a 貿易（する） pattern that has been running since the の近くにing months of 2021.
The 安定した stream of Chinese 出荷／船積みs has served to plug 供給（する） gaps in Western markets and helped 補充する 使い果たすd London Metal 交流 (LME) 在庫／株s.
LME 在庫 has more than 二塁打d to 51,850 metric トンs since the start of the year. It's still low by any historical 基準 but now 越えるs the tonnage sitting in Shanghai 未来s 交流 (ShFE) 倉庫／問屋s.
中国's 輸出（する） impulse is keeping the 地元の market tight, which appears to be attracting a lot of 思索的な attention to the Shanghai lead 契約.
CONSISTENT NET EXPORTER
中国 was a 重要な 逮捕する importer of lead in 精製するd form over the 2017-2020 period but flipped to 逮捕する 輸出業者 in 2021 as Western smelter 終結s 強化するd 供給（する） chains and drove physical 賞与金s to 記録，記録的な／記録する highs.
The 輸出（する） flow showed 調印するs of slowing between March and May but 選ぶd up pace again in June with outbound 出荷／船積みs totalling 15,000 metric トンs, the highest 月毎の total since January.
Cumulative 輸出（する）s in the first half of the year were 74,500 metric トンs, 負かす／撃墜する by only 15% on the first half of 2022, when the country shipped the most 精製するd lead since 2006.
輸入するs, 一方／合間, 量d to a 極小の 1,200 metric トンs in the first six months of this year, meaning 中国 remained a 一貫した 逮捕する 輸出業者 over the period.
輸出（する）s in the first ４半期/4分の1 went to as far as Europe and the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs but have since become more Asia-centric.
The three 最高の，を越す 目的地s over the first half of 2023 were Taiwan (17,500 metric トンs), Vietnam (16,100 metric トンs) and Bangladesh (10,300 metric トンs).
LME STOCKS REBUILD
Some of 中国's outbound 出荷／船積みs have been trickling into the LME 倉庫／問屋 system.
The 量 of Chinese lead on LME 令状 増加するd from 無 at the end of January to 6,750 metric トンs at the end of June.
令状d 在庫／株s of Taiwanese brand lead also rose はっきりと from 5,400 to 11,650 metric トンs over the same period, 示唆するing a 排水（気）量 flow resulting from 中国's 輸出（する）s to the island.
It's noticeable that all the LME 在庫／株s 再構築する has played out at just two 場所s - Kaohsiung in Taiwan and Singapore - attesting to the 衝撃 of 中国's 輸出（する）s on availability in the Asian market.
There are still no 登録（する）d lead 在庫／株s in the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs and only 1,200 metric トンs in Europe, all of it in the form of cancelled 令状s を待つing physical 負担-out.
However, the 供給（する） 赤字 outside of 中国 should be starting to の近くに thanks to the April 再開する of Germany's Stolberg smelter 連合させるd with 需要・要求する 証拠不十分 from the 自動推進の 部門, the 支配的な 使用者 of lead in the form of lead-酸性の 殴打／砲列s.
The Chinese market, by contrast, now shows 調印するs of 強化するing.
CHINA TIGHTNESS
While LME 在庫／株s have been rising, ShFE 在庫 has been 事情に応じて変わる.
Shanghai 在庫／株s 頂点（に達する）d at 77,216 metric トンs over the Lunar New Year holiday in February but have since fallen 支援する to 39,555, now up only 4,338 metric トンs on the start of January.
This time last year they stood at almost 90,000 metric トンs and two years ago the y were の近くに to 170,000.
Low 交流 在庫／株s have kept Shanghai time-spreads tighter than those on the LME and appear to be fuelling a burst of 思索的な activity.
Market open 利益／興味 on the ShFE lead 契約 has 殺到するd to a life-of-契約 high of 181,269 契約s. Activity has mushroomed in tandem with a sharp price rise, 示唆するing money is entering the market on the long 味方する.
The Shanghai bulls have so far made little 衝撃 on the London market, where three-month lead remains locked in a 狭くする $2,000-2,200 範囲, last 貿易（する）ing at $2,160 per metric トン. The 相違 between the two markets 示唆するs the dynamic of lead's east-west balancing 行為／法令／行動する is 転換ing 支援する to 中国. If so, the country's 最近の 役割 as lead 供給者 of last 訴える手段／行楽地 to the 残り／休憩（する） of the world may be about to change.
The opinions 表明するd here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
(Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
