CEE ECONOMY-Czech economy away from 後退,不況 but no quick 回復する

Prelim Q2 GDP +0.1% q/q (予測(する) +0.2%)

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Prelim Q2 GDP -0.6% y/y (予測(する) -0.5%)

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Data shows 後退,不況 felt in 2022 over, 回復 slow

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世帯 消費 stagnates q/q after 1-1/2 year 減少(する)

(追加するs 詳細(に述べる)s on 世帯 spending, more on 率s 見通し, final two paragraphs)

By Jason Hovet

July 31 (Reuters) - The Czech economy grew わずかに on a 年4回の basis in the second 4半期/4分の1, showing 調印するs of 回復 as 国内の 需要・要求する rose and 世帯 spending stagnated after 落ちるing since the end of 2021, 予選 data showed on Monday.

The Czech data was the first in central Europe to show second-4半期/4分の1 開発s, with a 4半期/4分の1-on-4半期/4分の1 rise of 0.1% coming after stagnation in the first 4半期/4分の1 停止(させる)d a 後退,不況.

Year-on-year, 甚だしい/12ダース 国内の 製品 fell by 0.6%, a touch more than 推定する/予想するd.

The Czech 統計に基づく Office did not give a 決裂/故障 of the data but said 国内の 需要・要求する 与える/捧げるd to growth and 世帯 消費 stagnated on a 4半期/4分の1-on-4半期/4分の1 basis, 潜在的に snapping a skid of six 連続した 4半期/4分の1s.

Central Europe's economies have been 攻撃する,衝突する by the 緊張する of high prices cutting はっきりと into 消費者 activity and growth. Only slight 救済 is 推定する/予想するd in 2023, with most economies 予測(する) to show only 穏健な GDP 伸び(る)s.

In the Czech 共和国, インフレーション fell to 選び出す/独身-digit levels at the end of last 4半期/4分の1 and the central bank is 推定する/予想するing it to 冷静な/正味の その上の later this year. But 利益/興味 率s remain high and the central bank is sh 借りがあるing no 急ぐ to 削減(する) borrowing costs.

資本/首都 経済的なs said the second-4半期/4分の1 data showed 後退,不況 was over but a 回復 would be weak this year.

"The 回復 is likely to be 比較して slow as 世帯s remain 用心深い and 女性 外部の 需要・要求する 重さを計るs on the 輸出(する) 部門," it said.

It said 落ちるing インフレーション and weak growth could 攻撃する the central bank to 利益/興味 率 削減(する)s this year - something markets have been pricing on a big 規模.

Policymakers, though, have been more 用心深い, and markets will 注目する,もくろむ closely comments on Thursday when the central bank 会合,会うs and is 広範囲にわたって 推定する/予想するd to keep its base 率 at 7.00%, where it has been since 中央の-2022.

The worry for some central 銀行業者s is インフレーション sticking above 的 next year and 給料 heating up too much.

For more than a year, high インフレーション has 大打撃を与えるd 世帯s' spending 力/強力にする, and Czech real 給料 fell the most の中で 経済協力開発機構 countries in 2022.

In the second-4半期/4分の1 data, a year-on-year 減少(する) in 世帯 消費 continued to 重さを計る.

製造業の activity has also been 傷つける by 縮むing order 調書をとる/予約するs and 感情 in the 部門 was at a three-year low in June, によれば the S&P 全世界の 購入(する)ing 経営者/支配人s' 索引 (PMI).

The high-率 環境 is 衝撃ing 商売/仕事 計画(する)s.

"高金利s coupled with 経済的な 不確定 are 主要な to lower 投資 activity by 会社/堅いs," said Jakub Seidler, 長,指導者 経済学者 at the Czech Banking 協会, who said there remained a change the central bank would not start 緩和 until next year. (報告(する)/憶測ing by Jason Hovet and Robert Muller in Prague; editing by Christina Fincher and Alex Richardson)

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