まっただ中に イスラエル 騒動, markets want 連続 at central bank 舵輪/支配

Bank of イスラエル 知事 Amir Yaron's 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 ends in Dec

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Markets want Yaron to stay for another five years

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Yaron seen 保存するing central bank independence

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Shekel at 3-year low, 傷つける by judicial 改革(する) 計画(する)

By Steven Scheer

JERUSALEM, Sept 21 (Reuters) - 財政上の markets are hoping 総理大臣 Benjamin Netanyahu keeps Bank of イスラエル 知事 Amir Yaron for a second 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 to 保護(する)/緊急輸入制限 the bank's independence and 供給する 安心させるing 安定 to an economy 動揺させるd by political 騒動 this year.

Yaron has not shied away from 批評 of the 意見の不一致を生じる judicial 精密検査する 計画(する) 押し進めるd by Netanyahu's 国家の-宗教的な 連合 that has 重さを計るd on Israeli 株 and sent the shekel to a three-year low against the dollar.

Unease over the 改革(する)s, which have 誘発するd one of the biggest waves of 抗議する in イスラエル's history, have had 重要な 経済的な costs, he said.

Yaron's five-year 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 ends at the end of 2023 and he has been tight-lipped on his 計画(する)s, only 説 he would 発表する a 決定/判定勝ち(する) on whether to put himself 今後 for a second 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 after the ユダヤ人の holiday season ends on Oct. 7.

In 2018, when Netanyahu 任命するd Yaron, an Israeli professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania who had lived in the 部隊d 明言する/公表するs for two 10年間s, there was little ファンファーレ/誇示 and market reaction was muted.

"In the 現在の circumstances, the 火刑/賭けるs are much higher because there is already 恐れる about curtailing the independence of the central bank," Karnit Flug, who に先行するd Yaron as 知事 from 2013-2018, told Reuters.

"Therefore, markets and credit 率ing 機関s are reading more into the question of 'yes' or 'no' to a second 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語. They look at what it means for the independence of the 会・原則."

率ing 機関s Moody's, S&P and Fitch have 警告するd of 損失 to イスラエル's institutional independence from the judicial 改革(する)s, which the 政府 says is to stop overreach by unelected 裁判官s but which many see as a 脅し to イスラエル's democratic values.

YES-MAN OR BACKBONE?

It is possible Yaron would not 受託する a second 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 even if asked, in which 事例/患者 the markets' 焦点(を合わせる) would switch to whether Netanyahu 任命するs a yes-man 交替/補充 or someone with backbone.

"Who will be 知事 is a major 関心 for 投資家s abroad," said Leader 資本/首都 Markets 長,指導者 経済学者 Jonathan Katz.

"The best シナリオ is another five years for Yaron," he said, 公式文書,認めるing that Yaron 代表するs an 独立した・無所属 知事 who doesn't 洞穴 to political 圧力 and speaks his mind.

"Second best is another 国祭的な recognised 人物/姿/数字 who is 見解(をとる)d as a 通貨の 専門家," Katz said.

The 選択 markets 恐れる most, 分析家s say, would be if Netanyahu makes (疑いを)晴らす he did not want Yaron to serve a second 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語, and gives the 地位,任命する to a political 同盟(する).

"He does not have to say 'I'm not giving a second 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語' but he can say it in a way that everybody understands that he did not ーするつもりである to reappoint (Yaron) and if he does that then this would be terrible," said Nadine Baudot-Trajtenberg, an 経済学者 who served as Flug's 副 知事.

Yaron has characterized his 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 as 'challenging'. He has had to を取り引きする the 経済的な fallout of five 選挙 cycles, the Covid pandemic, the ウクライナ共和国-Russia conf lict and a spike in インフレーション.

Jacob Frenkel, Bank of イスラエル 長,指導者 in 1991-2000, hopes Netanyahu will 後継する in 納得させるing Yaron to stay on, 公式文書,認めるing his 出資/貢献 to the 安定 of イスラエル's economy and stellar international 評判.

"イスラエル cannot afford losing this important 錨,総合司会者 of 安定," Frenkel said.

SCENARIO PLANNING

It is not (疑いを)晴らす if Netanyahu wishes to 認める Yaron a second 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語, 特に given Yaron's 批評 of the 政府's 計画(する) to rein in the 司法の - an 問題/発行する that has been 投資家s' 最高の,を越す 関心 in 2023.

With the 女性 shekel helping to 押し進める up インフレーション and 利益/興味 率s, Yaron has caught flak from some 上級の members of Netanyahu's 連合 - 含むing 脅しs of 法律制定 - over a jump in 率s that has 傷つける mortgage and other 貸付金 支えるもの/所有者s.

It is possible Yaron no longer wants to put up with such political 干渉,妨害. When asked this month by Reuters what he wishes to see in a 後継者, Yaron said: "Whoever is the 知事 has to continue to be 独立した・無所属 and to 表明する the professional opinion in 事柄s 関心ing the Israeli economy."

Flug, who 選ぶd against a second 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 and now is 副/悪徳行為 大統領,/社長 of 研究 at the イスラエル 僕主主義 学校/設ける, said "a lot of what I am thinking now is really something that I had 関心s about five years ago, に向かって the end of my 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 as a 知事."

A few years earlier in 2010, Stanley Fischer 受託するd a second 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 and helped イスラエル 天候 the 全世界の 財政上の 危機. He stepped 負かす/撃墜する 中央の-称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 and in 2014 became 副/悪徳行為 chairman of the U.S. 連邦の Reserve.

Bringing in someone of the status of Fischer was a 抱擁する クーデター for the then 大蔵大臣 Netanyahu and since then he has preferred 国祭的な known 人物/姿/数字s who are Jew ish or Israeli to lead the central bank.

Israeli マスコミ have 報告(する)/憶測d that Netanyahu is considering Efraim Benmelech - a professor of 財政/金融 at Kellogg School of 管理/経営 at Northwestern University. Benmelech told Reuters "there is nothing to 報告(する)/憶測 at this point" and has not received a formal 申し込む/申し出. Netanyahu's office 拒絶する/低下するd to comment.

If Yaron leaves and no 後継者 is in place by year end, a 類似の 状況/情勢 to 2018, then 副 知事 Andrew Abir would be 事実上の/代理 知事.

(報告(する)/憶測ing by Steven Scheer 付加 報告(する)/憶測ing by Maayan Lubell Editing by Christina Fincher)

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