塀で囲む St Week Ahead-Frazzled U.S. 在庫／株 投資家s 注目する，もくろむ frothy 財務省 market as Fed ぼんやり現れるs
By David Randall
NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) -
財政上の markets are を締めるing for what could be a momentous week, with a 連邦の Reserve 会合, U.S. 雇用 data and 収入s from 科学（工学）技術 heavyweight Apple Inc かもしれない setting the course for 在庫／株s and 社債s the 残り／休憩（する） of the year.
October has lived up to its 評判 for volatility, as a 殺到する in 財務省 産する／生じるs and geopolitical 不確定 圧力d 在庫／株s. The S&P 500 索引 is 負かす／撃墜する 3.5% for the month, 追加するing to losses that have left it over 10% off its late-July high.
Whether the ride remains rough for the 残り／休憩（する） of 2023 may depend in large part on the 社債 market. The Fed's 'higher for longer' 姿勢 on 利益／興味 率s and rising U.S. 会計の worries 押し進めるd the （判断の）基準 10-year 財務省 産する／生じる - which moves inversely to prices - to 5% earlier this month, the highest since 2007. Higher 財務省 産する／生じるs are seen as a headwind to 在庫／株s, in part because they compete with 公正，普通株主権s for 買い手s.
投資家s worry that 産する／生じるs could rise その上の if the Fed 増強するs its hawkish message at the central bank's Nov. 1 通貨の 政策 会合. Strong U.S. 雇用 data next Friday could also be a catalyst for 産する／生じるs to rise if it 支えるs the 事例／患者 for keeping 率s elevated to 冷静な／正味の the economy and 妨げる インフレーション from 回復するing.
"在庫／株s will start to 回復する when the market believes that 社債 産する／生じるs have 頂点（に達する）d," said Sam Stovall, 長，指導者 投資 strategist at CFRA 研究.
全体にわたる, 未来s markets are pricing in a 近づく-certainty that the Fed does not raise 率s in November, and a nearly 80% chance that the central bank 持つ／拘留するs 率s 安定した in December, によれば CME's FedWatch 道具. Still, policymakers have 事業／計画（する）d they will keep the 重要な p olicy 率 at 現在の levels through most of 2024, longer than markets had 以前 心配するd.
投資家s are playing a "waiting game of how much does each 経済的な data point need to 増加する to put another 率 引き上げ（る） 支援する on the （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する," said Alex McGrath, 長，指導者 投資 officer for NorthEnd 私的な Wealth.
With U.S. 甚だしい／１２ダース 国内の 製品 growth at a sizzling 4.9% in the third ４半期/4分の1, 調印するs that the labor market remains too hot, or the Fed sees the need for その上の 強化するing to 支配（する）／統制する インフレーション, could 燃料 その上の volatility.
"It feels like we are at a 十字路／岐路 whether or not the strong growth we've seen over the summer months will continue over the fourth ４半期/4分の1," and keep worries over インフレーション and 制限する 通貨の 政策 泡ing, said Charlie Ripley, 上級の 投資 strategist for Allianz 投資 管理／経営.
追加するing to the 社債 market's 関心s, the 財務省 is 推定する／予想するd to 発表する its 近づいている auction sizes later this week. Worries about a growing 連邦の 赤字 and 増加するd 供給（する） have helped 押し進める 産する／生じるs higher.
投資家s are also を待つing Apple's results on Thursday, during an 収入s season with 失望s from some growth and 科学（工学）技術 巨大（な）s, 含むing Tesla and Google. The tech-激しい Nasdaq 100 索引 is 負かす／撃墜する 11% from its high, though still up nearly 30% on the year.
Some 投資家s believe the worst of the selling may be over.
A 株式市場 回復する would follow seasonal 傾向s, said Stovall, of CFRA 研究. Since 1945, the S&P 500 has 前進するd by an 普通の／平均（する） of 1.5% in November, making it the year's third-best 成し遂げるing month, he said.
More 概して, some believe the 株式市場's 貿易（する）ing patterns this year point to a 回復する in the fourth ４半期/4分の1.
In the 14 ins tances when the S&P 500 has 伸び（る）d at least 10% through July and then 拒絶する／低下するd in August, as it did this year, the 索引 has 増加するd every time over the last four months of the year, によれば Ned Davis 研究. The 普通の／平均（する） 伸び（る） in those instances has been 10%.
在庫／株s appear "oversold" によれば technical 指示する人（物）s and could 決起大会／結集させる if 経済的な data comes in as 推定する／予想するd, said Randy Frederick, managing director of 貿易（する）ing and derivatives for the Schwab 中心 for 財政上の 研究.
"The 株式市場 is 均衡を保った for a late Q4 決起大会／結集させる."
(報告（する）／憶測ing by David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Richard Chang)
