Did pandemic central banking work? Fed review to 注目する，もくろむ インフレーション, 職業s tradeoffs
By Howard Schneider
ATLANTA, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. 連邦の Reserve's 誓約（する） in 2020 to 支える "幅の広い-based and inclusive" 雇用 through loose 通貨の 政策 was considered a bold 返答 to the pandemic, putting its muscle behind the idea that low 失業 and low インフレーション could coexist.
The 続いて起こるing インフレーション 殺到する has put that 見解（をとる） under a スポットライト, with scrutiny likely to 強める over the next year as Fed 公式の／役人s 準備する for a 幅の広い policymaking review that 議長，司会を務める Jerome Powell has said will 開始する in late 2024.
There's been no suggestion the Fed will 減少（する） language 追加するd to its 政策 枠組み three years ago nodding 暗黙に to the 伸び（る）s disadvantaged groups get from tight labor markets and showing a 乗り気 to take 危険s with higher インフレーション ーするために let the 失業率 落ちる as low as possible.
公式文書，認めるing the 失業率 gap between 黒人／ボイコットs and whites tends to 狭くする as the 職業 market 強化するs, the Fed's 戦略 does seem on 跡をつける to produce more equitable 結果s, said Miesha Williams, an associate professor of 経済的なs at Spelman College in Atlanta, where Powell is to appear Friday.
"There's this goal to be inclusive and while it may be new, it is going to take some アイロンをかけるing out," she said.
But the experience of the last three years already has led some Fed 退役軍人s to call for a 新たにするd 焦点（を合わせる） on 先買権によって獲得するing インフレーション before it 加速するs and others to say it may be time to consider redefining the インフレーション 的 itself, all while Powell points to a 深い discussion over 形態／調整ing central bank 政策 for the 地位，任命する-pandemic world.
After インフレーション's breakout and the 緊急発進する to 含む／封じ込める it, even strong 支持するs of 積極的な Fed attention to joblessness agree changes may be needed so 未来 公式の／役人s aren't constrained by the 現在の 枠組み's かかわり合い to loose 政策 as prices take off.
In an essay to be published next year 株d with Reuters, former Chicago Fed 大統領 Charles Evans, who helped lay the 基礎 for the 現在の 枠組み, argues the rise of インフレーション, driven by stronger-than-推定する／予想するd 需要・要求する and ぐずぐず残る pandemic 供給（する） shocks, show the Fed needs "付加 guard rails," perhaps even an インフレーション "escape threshold" to 許す 率 引き上げ（る）s to begin 関わりなく 誓約（する）s made about 雇用.
After cutting 率s to 近づく 無 to 戦闘 the fallout from the pandemic, the Fed in September 2020 said it would not raise them until 最大限 雇用 was 回復するd and インフレーション was above 2% - an 成果／努力 to 達成する its 2% 的 on an 普通の／平均（する） basis over time after a long period of weak price 増加するs.
Central 銀行業者s are loathe to break such 完全な かかわり合いs for 恐れる of losing 信用性, and the 条件s 始める，決める for a 率 引き上げ（る） are 広範囲にわたって seen as slowing the Fed's 返答 as インフレーション rose throughout 2021: Its first 率 引き上げ（る） did not occur until March 2022.
"My guess is they will have discussions about how quickly and 突然の you can 転換 gears" when 予期しない 開発s 刺激（する） prices higher, Evans said.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
Powell recently pointed to some of the 複雑化s flagged by Evans, 公式文書，認めるing pandemic 供給（する） shocks seemed long-lived and perhaps 要求する higher 利益／興味 率s than would usually be the 事例／患者 for something 公式の／役人s 推定する／予想する to adjust on its own.
Fed 政策 影響する／感情s 消費者 and 商売／仕事 需要・要求する by 影響（力）ing the cost of credit through 利益／興味 率 changes, but the economy's 供給（する） 味方する is regarded as mostly self-訂正するing as 商売／仕事s adapt 生産（高） to 需要・要求する, a 原則 challenged by 非常に長い p andemic disruptions.
More 概して, Powell said the next review would have to 取り組む an even more 根底となる question.
The last one was でっちあげる，人を罪に陥れるd around the experience of the 2007-to-2009 財政上の 危機 and 後退，不況, the slow 回復 that followed, and the years the Fed kept 率s pinned 近づく 無 with no 従来の way to その上の help the economy.
Hoping to 避ける return trips to that "無 lower bound," the 枠組み 転換d to 目的（とする） for インフレーション that 普通の／平均（する）d 2% over time. Periods of high インフレーション would 相殺する those when インフレーション was low as occurred between the 財政上の 危機 and the pandemic.
Those 関心s may not 事柄 anymore if the pandemic has driven インフレーション and 利益／興味 率s chronically higher.
"の中で the questions we will consider is the degree to which the 構造上の features of the economy that led to low 利益／興味 率s in the pre-pandemic 時代 will 固執する," Powell said last month.
The Fed has not 供給するd その上の （警察などへの）密告，告訴（状） about the coming review 過程. The last one 含むd "Fed Listens" events around the country, 許すing 商売／仕事 owners, 労働者s, elected 公式の／役人s and others to talk about the economy and how 通貨の 政策 衝撃s their lives. A major 研究 会議／協議会 at the Chicago Fed delved into different 政策 approaches.
Whatever the 過程, the circumstances are radically changed: The pandemic 時代's 早い growth and high インフレーション are a 近づく 完全にする opposite of the １０年間 先行する it.
A 'NOISY MEASURE'
公式の／役人s have begun flagging the 問題／発行するs they want to 審議.
Cleveland Fed 大統領 Loretta Mester said this week she felt the Fed needs to be more explicit about how 財政上の 安定 factors into 政策, and Chicago Fed 大統領 A ustan Goolsbee said it might be time to consider relaxing an インフレーション 的 he feels is too 明確な／細部 for a "noisy" variable.
"My thing about インフレーション 的s is the 誤った sense of precision to say 2%. What about 2.1?" Goolsbee said in September. "インフレーション is an 極端に noisy 手段 so I do think we have to think about that."
Other policymakers have said they'd prefer a 範囲 instead of a 明確な／細部 的 for 類似の 推論する／理由s.
To former Fed 副／悪徳行為 議長，司会を務める Donald Kohn, however, the lesson of the last few years is different and calls for more old-fashioned policymaking.
Speaking at a Boston Fed labor market 会議／協議会 in November, Kohn said the new 枠組み showed the 危険s of not keeping インフレーション at bay to begin with.
"調査（する）ing" for 最大限 雇用 "can't ignore...インフレーション 危険s," Kohn said, calling for a return to a 戦略 否認するd in the last review.
"I think preemptive 強化するing is best-practice central banking, and I hope they return to 許すing that." (報告（する）／憶測ing by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan 燃やすs and Andrea Ricci)
