COLUMN-石油輸出国機構+ may have played its final card with voluntary 天然のまま 削減（する）s: Russell
By Clyde Russell
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The 付加 天然のまま 生産（高） 削減（する）s by 石油輸出国機構+ should do two things, and neither of them are likely to please the group of oil 輸出業者s.
Firstly, the 削減 of about 2.2 million バーレル／樽s per day (bpd) for 早期に next year should put to 残り／休憩（する） the idea that 全世界の 需要・要求する growth for 天然のまま is strong.
Secondly, it should beg the question as to if this is 効果的に 石油輸出国機構+'s last roll of dice, and whether the group can 現実に 削減（する） any more if the price of oil continues to 軟化する.
石油輸出国機構+, which consists of the Organization of the 石油 輸出（する）ing Countries and 同盟（する）s such as Russia, met on Thursday to discuss 供給（する） 政策, having 延期するd the 会合 from Nov. 26 in an 明らかな 試みる／企てる to reach 協定.
What the group did agree was total 生産／産物 抑制（する）s of 2.2 million bpd from eight members, a 人物／姿／数字 that 含むs an 拡張 of the 存在するing voluntary Saudi and ロシアの 削減（する）s of 1.3 million bpd.
The market reaction to the 石油輸出国機構+ 声明 was subdued, with （判断の）基準 Brent 天然のまま 未来s giving up their earlier 伸び（る）s to end at $82.85 a バーレル／樽 on Thursday, 負かす／撃墜する わずかに from the previous の近くに of $83.10.
The price 活動／戦闘 most likely 反映するs the market 見解（をとる） that the 石油輸出国機構+ 活動／戦闘 is probably not enough to 強化する the 全世界の 供給（する）-需要・要求する balance in the first ４半期/4分の1 十分に to 誘発する a 決起大会／結集させる.
It also may show a 確かな degree of scepticism of the voluntary nature of the 付加 生産／産物 削減（する）s, which raises questions as to whether they will 現実に be 配達するd.
The broader picture for the 天然のまま oil market is whether 石油輸出国機構+ is doing enough to 持続する prices above $80 a バーレル／樽, w hich is likely to be the 最小限 preferred price for the 本体，大部分／ばら積みの of the group's members.
The 拡張 of Saudi Arabia's voluntary 1 million bpd 生産（高） 削減（する）, in place since July, and of Russia's 300,000 bpd 削減, and the 付加 900,000 bpd for other members brings the total 削減（する）s 誓約（する）d by 石油輸出国機構+ to about 5 million bpd.
This level of 生産／産物 curtailment does very little to support the bullish 事例／患者 for 全世界の 需要・要求する growth this year, which 石油輸出国機構 and the International Energy 機関 (国際エネルギー機関) are still 予測（する）ing.
It's also important to work out what is the most important determinant of oil prices in the longer 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語, outside of short-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 moves based around news headlines.
Is it 需要・要求する 予測（する）s, 明言する／公表するd or 的d 生産／産物 levels, or the actual 容積／容量s of 天然のまま oil moving around the world.
The price of 天然のまま is 始める，決める by the seaborne market, and therefore 大部分は ignores the 衝撃 of 天然のまま produced and 消費するd 国内で, or even oil 輸送（する）d over 国境s by pipelines.
SEABORNE SHIPMENTS
The 容積／容量 of seaborne 天然のまま 輸入するs has grown so far in 2023, with data from 商品／必需品 顧問s Kpler showing that in the first 11 months of the year a total of 41.96 million bpd of seaborne 天然のまま was 輸入するd.
This is up 1.86 million bpd from the 人物／姿／数字 of 40.10 million bpd for 2022, によれば Kpler.
While seaborne movements aren't the only 構成要素 of 需要・要求する growth, they are arguably the major 決定するing factor in the setting of the 全世界の price.
The seaborne market is showing solid growth, but probably not enough to 相殺する the 増加する in 供給（する） from 非，不，無-石油輸出国機構+ 生産者s, such as the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs, Brazil and Guyana.
It's also 価値（がある） 公式文書，認めるing that much of the 楽観主義 in the 需要・要求する 予測（する）s by 石油輸出国機構 and the 国際エネルギー機関 is centred around Asia, in particular 中国, the world's biggest importer, and India, the third-largest.
中国's 天然のまま 輸入するs were 11.36 million bpd in the first 10 months of the year, up 1.21 million bpd from the level for 2022 as a whole.
India saw arrivals of 4.62 million bpd in the first 10 months of the year, によれば LSEG data, up 462,000 bpd on the 4.14 million bpd for 2022.
However, while the two Asian heavyweights show reasonable growth in 輸入するs, 証拠不十分 in the 残り／休憩（する） of Asia means the world's 最高の，を越す-輸入するing 地域 shows little growth 全体にわたる.
Asia's 天然のまま 輸入するs in the first 10 months of the year were 26.93 million bpd, によれば LSEG data, up 1.34 million bpd on the 25.59 million bpd 記録，記録的な／記録するd for the whole of 2022.
全体にわたる, the picture that 現れるs is that 需要・要求する growth is likely to disappoint 予測（する）s, and 非，不，無-石油輸出国機構+ 供給（する） is 会合 most of the growth in seaborne 需要・要求する.
It's therefore not that surprising that 石油輸出国機構+ is trying to 強化する 供給（する） その上の for the start of 2024.
But their evident struggles to reach a new 取引，協定, and the voluntary nature of that 協定, raise questions as to how much more the group can do.
The opinions 表明するd here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. (Editing by Stephen Coates)
