In the Market: Fed 操縦するing another tricky soft-上陸
By Paritosh Bansal
March 28 (Reuters) - The Fed is の近くに to 配達するing a rare soft 上陸 for the U.S. economy but it 直面するs yet another fraught challenge: 減ずるing cash in the 財政上の system without 混乱に陥れる／中断させるing markets.
With the Fed having already 除去するd some $1.4 一兆 as it 縮むs its balance sheet to end pandemic-時代 support, the 焦点（を合わせる） is ますます turning to when it should stop. The worry is if cash in the banking system, called reserves, 違反 a 確かな 最小限 level, markets would 凍結する up. But no one knows what the 権利 level is.
Last week, Fed 議長，司会を務める Jerome Powell said policymakers were 近づくing a 決定／判定勝ち（する） to slow the pace of quantitative 強化するing (QT) to bring reserves "into a nice, 平易な 上陸." Powell said they are watching "a bunch of different 指示する人（物）s" in money markets to "to tell us when we're getting の近くに."
The Fed's 焦点（を合わせる） is 慰安ing 塀で囲む Street, market 関係者s said, even though the 仕事 before it is hard. It's difficult because the lines are blurry: the Fed is trying to go from "abundant" to "ample" reserves without making them 不十分な. And market signals to guide it are noisy and hard to discern.
の中で the 指示する人（物）s the Fed is likely watching: 銀行準備金s, some 重要な 利益／興味 率s in money markets and cash parked in the Fed's 夜通し 逆転する repurchase 協定 施設, they said.
示す Cabana, Bank of America's 長，率いる of U.S. 率s 戦略, said it will be "やめる a feat" for the Fed to engineer a soft 上陸, where the Fed leaves the 権利 reserve levels in the banking system. But he 追加するd that he thought they had a "decent 発射" now because they were taking a more accommodative 姿勢.
"I would have told you last year, like in November-December, the F ed was very much at 危険 of 行方不明の it," Cabana said.
He 推定する／予想するs the Fed to 発表する 次第に減少するing as 早期に as May, 減ずるing the cap on the 量 of 財務省s it 目的（とする）s to offload every month by half to $30 billion. John Velis, Americas 大型の strategist at BNY Mellon, is of the same 見解（をとる） on the size and タイミング of the 次第に減少する.
It is important for the Fed to get the drawdown 権利, as a 欠如（する） of reserves can 原因（となる） sudden spikes in 率s, 混乱に陥れる／中断させるing 財務省 markets and making it hard for 会社／堅いs to 基金 themselves. That could get 実験（する）d in the coming weeks when along with QT, events such as the April 15 税金 day would 減ずる cash in the 財政上の system while 増加するing 需要・要求する for it. So far, however, market 機能（する）／行事ing has held up.
In 2019, a spike in short-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 基金ing 率s 軍隊d the Fed to put reserves 支援する into the system, something that Powell said the Fed does not want to 実験（する） again, even though it has since 始める，決める up a backstop to support money markets.
ABUNDANT RESERVES
見積（る）s of the 最小限 量 of 銀行準備金s needed 範囲 from about $2.5 一兆 to $3.3 一兆. Such reserves 現在／一般に total about $3.5 一兆.
While they appear abundant, banks' need for cash has 増加するd. Cabana 公式文書，認めるd that reserves had 増加するd to $3.5 一兆 from $3.3 一兆 when QT started in the summer of 2022. He ascribed that to 貸す人s 追加するing reserves in the wake of deposit outflows after the bank 失敗s in March 2023 and to unrealized losses in their 安全s 大臣の地位s.
In 新規加入, 配当 of reserves could 変化させる by bank, making it harder to arrive at what's 十分な - a point that Powell 定評のある last week. "Aggregate reserves appear abundant, but it seems the Fed has an inkling that they are not 井戸／弁護士席 分配するd across the system," BNY´s Velis said.
An 指示する人（物） of 超過 cash is the Fed's 逆転する repo 施設, where 投資家s lend the central bank cash. That has been 減ずるing, but the pace has slowed in 最近の weeks.
見解（をとる）s diverge on when that might 完全に drain and what it says about liquidity in the system. Velis 推定する／予想するs it could go 負かす／撃墜する to 無 by the summer, while Cabana sees it not draining fully until the middle of next year. UBS strategists said it could rise in the second ４半期/4分の1 at the expense of reserves.
MONEY MARKET INDICATORS
の中で the 指示する人（物）s the Fed has said it is watching are two money market 率s - the Fed 基金s 率 at which banks lend to one another, and the （判断の）基準 安全な・保証するd 夜通し 財政／金融ing 率 (SOFR) - in relation to the 利益／興味 on reserve balances (IORB) that the Fed 支払う／賃金s to banks.
Cabana 推定する／予想するs the central bank would want the Fed 基金s to be about 10 basis points higher than where it is now, leaving it 2-3 basis points above the IORB. On SOFR, he 推定する／予想するs the 率 would need to go up 10-15 basis points higher, leaving it 0-5 basis points above what the Fed 支払う／賃金s banks.
That's because total system cash is likely closer to ample levels when 投資家s have to 支払う／賃金 わずかに above Fed 治めるd 率s to acquire it, Cabana said.
The 率 would likely 徐々に rise as reserves 落ちる, but in the 暫定的な 供給（する）-需要・要求する 不均衡s could 原因（となる） 簡潔な／要約する 率 spikes as it did in 2019 - 調印するs for the central bank to watch.
"The Fed will be looking at both the 率 and the volatility that is associated with that to 決定する when they 現実に need to stop QT," Cabana said.
(報告（する）／憶測ing by Paritosh Bansal; editing by Anna Driver)
