Canada's GDP 回復するs in January, likely up 0.4% in February

Canada's January GDP at 0.6% against 0.4% 予測(する)

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February GDP likely to have grown by 0.4%

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幅の広い-based growth led by end of strike in Quebec

(令状s throughout with background, その上の 詳細(に述べる)s)

By Promit Mukherjee and Ismail Shakil

OTTAWA, March 28 (Reuters) - Canada's 甚だしい/12ダース 国内の 製品 堅固に 回復するd in January 越えるing 期待s and February's 予選 見積(る)s point to another 拡大, data showed on Thursday, tempering 圧力 on the Bank of Canada (BoC) for an 早期に 率 削減(する).

The economy grew by 0.6% in January, its fastest growth 率 in a year, which the 統計(学) Canada called a 幅の広い-based 拡大 led by a bounce 支援する in education services 利益ing from an end of public 部門 strikes in Quebec.

February's GDP is also likely to have grown by 0.4% with main 出資/貢献s from 採掘, quarrying and oil and gas extraction, though other 産業s will also likely 与える/捧げる, it said.

分析家s 投票d by Reuters had 予測(する) a GDP growth of 0.4% on a month-on-month basis in January. December GDP was 改訂するd to a 0.1% 収縮過程 from 無 growth 最初 報告(する)/憶測d.

Money markets わずかに trimmed their bets for a first 25 basis point 率 削減(する) in June to 69% from just over 70% before the GDP numbers were 解放(する)d. They 広範囲にわたって 推定する/予想する the BoC to 持つ/拘留する its 重要な 夜通し 率 at the same level on April 10 and a 率 削減(する) in July is fully 定価つきの in.

The Canadian dollar pared losses after the numbers, with the loonie 貿易(する)ing 0.01% stronger to 1.3579 against the 米国紙幣 at 1340 GMT. The two-year 政府 社債 産する/生じるs also rose by 4.6 basis points to 4.188%.

The strong start to the year and the 予測(する) for February show that the GDP is likely to の近くに the first 4半期/4分の1 better than the BoC 0.5% growth 発射/推定.

The data "明確に 示唆するs there is no 緊急 for an 即座の 削減 in 利益/興味 率s," Andrew Grantham, 上級の 経済学者 at CIBC, wrote in a 公式文書,認める.

The central bank has 持続するd its 重要な 政策 率 at a 22-year high of 5% since July, but BoC's 治める/統治するing 会議 in March agreed that 条件s for 率 削減(する)s should materialize this year if the economy 発展させるs in line with its 発射/推定s.

Canada's economy has 避けるd 後退,不況 in the 直面する of 高金利s which the BoC has 持続するd at a 22-year high of 5% for the last eight months in 成果/努力s to rein in インフレーション.

But high borrowing costs have nibbled at 消費者 spending and 商売/仕事 投資s, keeping growth 大部分は muted. Its growth 立ち往生させるd in the second half of last year and GDP was flat or 消極的な on a 月毎の basis in four out of the last six months of 2023.

The BoC will 解放(する) new 発射/推定s along with its 率 告示 on April 10.

"The surprisingly healthy start to 2024 points to above-可能性のある growth in Q1, which could make the BoC a bit いっそう少なく comfortable with the インフレーション 見通し," said Doug Porter, 長,指導者 経済学者 at BMO 資本/首都 Markets in a 公式文書,認める, 追加するing that a June 率 削減(する) 発射/推定 will depend on the next インフレーション 報告(する)/憶測.

Canada's インフレーション 率 surprisingly 冷静な/正味のd to 2.8% in February, its slowest pace since June.

Growth in January was 幅の広い-based, with 18 out of 20 部門s 拡大するing 生産(高) in the month, Statscan said. Real 広い地所 and 賃貸しの and 賃貸し(する)ing grew for the third 連続した month, as activity at the offices of real 広い地所 スパイ/執行官s and 仲買人s drove the 伸び(る) in January, it said.

全体にわたる, the services-producing 産業s grew 0.7%, while the goods-producing 拡大するd 0.2%.

に引き続いて three 連続した 月毎の 増加するs, the 採掘, quarrying and oil and gas extraction 部門 拒絶する/低下するd 1.9% in January, as two of three subsectors 契約d.

(付加 報告(する)/憶測ing by Dale Smith Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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