Is the 塀で囲む of 巡査 供給（する） finally coming? Andy Home
By Andy Home
LONDON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - This was supposed to be a year of 供給（する） 黒字／過剰 for the 巡査 market.
Yet here we are in September and 明白な 在庫, 特に that on the London Metal 交流 (LME), is still 極端に low, while tightness ゆらめくs across the nearby LME spreads.
The International 巡査 熟考する／考慮する Group's (ICSG) most 最近の 月毎の update 査定する／（税金などを）課すd the 全世界の 精製するd 巡査 market as 存在 in a 450,000-tonne 赤字 in the first five months of the year, or a 308,000-tonne 赤字 once movements in Shanghai 社債d 在庫／株s are factored into the equation.
So where 正確に／まさに has that much-discussed 塀で囲む of 供給（する） gone? The answer comes in several parts but it starts, as ever, with what's coming out of the ground.
And while 地雷d 巡査 生産／産物 has been rising, up five パーセント in January-May によれば the ICSG, it has been rising いっそう少なく than 推定する／予想するd.
That in part is 負かす／撃墜する to the normal start-up 頭痛s of bringing new 地雷s on stream but in greater part it is 負かす／撃墜する to Indonesia's 禁止（する） on 輸出（する）s of 巡査 concentrates from the Grasberg and Batu Hijau 地雷s.
That 禁止（する） is now 解散させるing. Freeport McMoRan, which operates Grasberg, has 再開するd 出荷／船積みs, while Newmont 採掘 , which operates Batu Hijau, is の近くに to doing so.
With classic 商品／必需品 market タイミング, 輸出（する） flows from Indonesia will 再開する just as pre viously-延期するd new 地雷s finally start ramping up 生産／産物.
治療 and 精製するing 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金s, paid by 鉱夫s to smelters to have their concentrates 変えるd into metal, have leapt to multi-year highs over the last few weeks.
That says smelters at least think the 塀で囲む of 供給（する） is 切迫した. But how long will it take to 料金d through into the 精製するd 巡査 market?
SUPPLY HITS
It's 価値（がある） 解任するing that no-one 推定する／予想するd Indonesia's 禁止（する） on the 輸出（する） of unprocessed minerals, introduced at the start of the year, to 衝撃 巡査. The 受託するd 知恵, always a dangerous thing, was that the 禁止（する） was a nickel and aluminium story, given Indonesia's 役割 in 供給（する）ing nickel 鉱石 and bauxite to 中国.
It was the Indonesian 政府's 決定／判定勝ち（する） to put in place an 増大するing 輸出（する） 税金 on 巡査 concentrates that led to the months-long stand-off with Freeport and Newmont.
Freeport 削減（する） operating 率s at its 巨大（な） Grasberg 地雷 to around half, 提携させるing 生産／産物 with what the country's only smelter could take. Newmont idled Batu Hijau in June after its concentrate 貯蔵 施設s were maxed out.
At the time of its Q2 results Freeport 概算の the 輸出（する） 禁止（する） had 原因（となる）d the loss, or "deferral" as the company calls it, of around 125,000 tonnes of 巡査 in concentrates in the first half of 2014.
Batu Hijau produced 36,000 tonnes of 巡査 in the first half of this year, compared with 初めの 十分な-year 指導／手引 of 110,000-125,000 tonnes. There has been no 生産／産物 at all since 早期に June.
Indonesia, in short, has cost somewhere around 200,000 tonnes in lost, or "deferred", 生産／産物 so far this year.
It's not been the only 供給（する） 攻撃する，衝突する.
延期するs and start-up problems at new 地雷s such as Toromocho in Peru have played their part. 明言する／公表する Chinese company Chinalco has 改訂するd several times its 指導／手引 numbers for Toromocho 予定 to （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限ing 問題／発行するs. Its 最新の 予測（する） is 生産／産物 of 100,000 tonnes 含む／封じ込めるd 巡査 this year, compared with an 初めの 人物／姿／数字 of 190,000 tonnes.
But such slippages are by no means unusual when it comes to bringing on line a 地雷 the size of Toromocho, which will produce 300,000 tonnes per year of 巡査 once running at 十分な capacity.
Indonesia, by contrast, was both 予期しない and 重要な ーに関して／ーの点でs of its 衝撃 on raw 構成要素s availability this year.
SUPPLY SURGE
The Indonesian 影響 will now 病弱な.
Freeport has already 再開するd 出荷／船積みs of 巡査 concentrates after reaching a を取り引きする the Indonesian 政府. Newmont should follow すぐに, 裁判官ing by comments on Monday from the country's 省 of 地雷s.
The 再開 of Indonesian 供給（する） will take place just as three new 地雷s start 追加するing to 全世界の concentrates 供給（する）.
The Caserones 地雷 in Chile, owned by Japan's Pan 太平洋の 巡査 and Mitsui & Co Ltd, was 予定 to have started 操作／手術s in January but only made it into 商業の 生産／産物 at the end of May. It is 的ing 生産／産物 of around 75,000 tonnes this year, half its 名目上の capacity.
Closer to 初めの time-（米）棚上げする／（英）提議する but over-予算 has been the Sierra Gorda 地雷, also in Chile. ポーランドの（人） owner KGHM 発表するd first 生産／産物 at the end of July with ramp-up to 十分な モミs t-行う／開催する／段階 capacity of 120,000 tonnes per year 推定する／予想するd to be 達成するd 早期に next year.
Brazil's Vale, 一方／合間, 完全にするd the second-段階 開発 of its Salobo 地雷, 追加するing 100,000 tonnes of 年次の capacity, during the second ４半期/4分の1.
Toromocho is also ramping up, albeit more slowly than 推定する／予想するd, while Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia and Bisha in Eritrea have already made it past the teething-problem 行う／開催する／段階 of （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限ing.
Indeed, the 衝撃 of both is （疑いを）晴らす to see in 中国's 輸入する 人物／姿／数字s. 輸入するs of 巡査 concentrates from Mongolia have 普通の／平均（する）d above 100,000 tonnes per month (本体，大部分／ばら積みの 負わせる) for the last three 報告（する）／憶測d months (May to July). That's more than 二塁打 the 月毎の 普通の／平均（する） over the course of 2013.
輸入するs from Eritrea have totalled 117,000 tonnes (also 本体，大部分／ばら積みの 負わせる) so far this year, 反映するing the ramp-up in 生産（高） from Bisha, owned by Nevsun 資源s, which （機の）カム on line in Q3 2013.
BOTTLENECKS
In short, there's a lot of 巡査 about to 攻撃する，衝突する the concentrates market at the same time.
Which is why 治療 and 精製するing 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金s, the best 計器 of raw 構成要素s availability in the 巡査 market, have ロケット／急騰するd to around $120 per tonne and 12 cents per lb over the last month or so.
These are very high numbers. The last time that 年次の 取引，協定s were done anywhere 近づく this level was 支援する in 2005.
And that in itself may help to 除去する one of the bottlenecks that has 妨げるd rising concentrates availability 料金d through into greater 精製するd metal availability.
中国, the world's largest 集中 of smelting capacity, has 現実に seen 精製するd 巡査 生産／産物 growth slow this year, 大部分は 予定 to a flurry of 維持／整備 shutdowns in the first half.
いっそう少なく 維持／整備 in the second half 連合させるd with greenfield smelter 事業／計画（する）s and a 歴史的に high incentive 転換 price should help 送信する／伝染させる the building raw 構成要素s 殺到する into the 精製するd market-place.
The efficiency of that 伝達／伝染 過程 will still be 影響する／感情d by one other bottleneck and one that may 証明する to be more sticky.
This new 世代 of 地雷s will not produce concentrates of the same 質 as older 世代s. By-製品 impurities will 要求する "dirty" concentrates to be blended with "clean" concentrates.
The prime example of this is Chilean 明言する／公表する 生産者 Codelco's Ministro Hales 地雷, which entered 生産／産物 last year. Its concentrate has arsenic levels too high for Chinese smelters to take without blending, which is why Codelco has done a を取り引きする 貿易（する）ing house Ocean Partners to blend 構成要素 at the latter's Taiwan 施設 before sale to 中国.
The 必要物／必要条件 to blend slows the 地雷-to-metal 過程 and it looks 始める，決める to become part of the 巡査 market in the years ahead, not least ーに関して／ーの点でs of fracturing the pricing model for concentrates between "clean" and "dirty" 構成要素s.
正確に／まさに by how much it will slow the raw 構成要素s 伝達／伝染 chain is now the 重要な question.
Because what's not in 疑問 is that the 塀で囲む of 巡査 供給（する） is finally arriving. Those 歴史的に high 治療 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金s tell us so. (Editing by David Evans)
