小売 投資家s watch and wait as Scottish independence 投票(する) 狭くするs

By Simon Jessop and Nishant Kumar

LONDON, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The prospect of major 財政上の fallout from a "yes" 投票(する) in Scotland's independence 国民投票 in two weeks time could have a big 衝撃 on 小売 投資家s, but there are no 調印するs yet they are moving their money.

An 独立した・無所属 Scotland has an 増加するd chance of becoming a reality given the 最新の opinion 投票s. And this has put the スポットライト on what independence will mean for Scotland's $250 billion economy, 含むing what 通貨 it would use, all of which will have major 関わりあい/含蓄s for 投資s in Scottish-based companies.

Credit 率ing 機関 基準 & Poor's, for example, 警告するd last month that a 投票(する) for independence could 誘発する/引き起こす a 消極的な 率ing 活動/戦闘 against 保険 companies operating in Scotland.

But 小売 投資家s are showing no 調印するs yet of 投票(する)ing with their money, partly because there is so much 不確定 over a 範囲 of 問題/発行するs from 税金 to 規則 if there is a "yes" 投票(する) in the 国民投票 on Sept. 18.

A small number of 小売 投資家s put in calls to their 財政上の 助言者 after 投票s showed the gap between the "yes" and "no" 投票(する)s 狭くするing.

"The feedback from our helpdesk is that we're not 存在 deluged with calls, a few a day is the 肉親,親類d of numbers," Tom McPhail, 長,率いる of 年金s 研究 at 基金 supermarket and fin ancial 助言者 Hargreaves Lansdown, said.

"But if there's a major news story, such as the 投票 earlier in the week, it 焦点(を合わせる)s people's attention on the 見込み of a 'yes' 投票(する) and 誘発する/引き起こすs calls," he said.

That 感情 would likely lead to (弁護士の)依頼人s considering their 選択s over the next two weeks, an 分析家 at 投資するing 壇・綱領・公約 Trustnet Direct said although there was no panic yet.

Of the nearly $3 billion pulled from 相互の 基金s 投資するing in UK 在庫/株s this year, two-thirds were 孤立した from money 経営者/支配人s まず第一に/本来 based in Scotland, data from 基金 tracker Lipper showed. But 分析家s said factors 含むing some 合併s and 取得/買収s in the 産業 and poor 業績/成果 were the main 推論する/理由s behind the outflows.

"Whilst we have had communications with 顧客s regarding the 国民投票, nobody has made 言及/関連 to selling 基金s as a result," Edward Johnson, 商業の 経営者/支配人 at 投資 service provider Willis Owen, said.

Institutional 投資家s, such as 年金 基金s and other professional 投資家s, have 注ぐd $9 billion into Scotland-based hedge 基金s 会社/堅いs, 追加するing to a $10 billion 配分 last year, data from Eurekahedge showed.

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The 最新の 投票 that showed 記録,記録的な/記録する support for Scottish independence 原因(となる)d some 財政上の market turbulence, 押し進めるing the 続けざまに猛撃する to five-month lows this week.

But Scotland-based 在庫/株s have recently 逆転するd months of underperformance にもかかわらず the prospect of a possible 分裂(する) from the 部隊d Kingdom, partly because the 即座の 衝撃 of a "yes" 投票(する) is hard to quantify.

小売 投資家s who did make phone calls on Scot land had questions around 問題/発行するs such as their 投資s in 王室の Bank of Scotland, 確かな Scottish with-利益(をあげる)s 基金s, or Scottish 投資 houses, McPhail said.

While some people were nervous, few 手配中の,お尋ね者 to sell, he said.

"The only thing we do know is that if there is a 'yes' 投票(する) it will cost everybody money," McPhail said, referring to the need to replicate 会・原則s such as regulators, 同様に as 供給する training, new 投資 literature and other 操作の tweaks.

For Damian Smyth, 長,率いる of intermediary sales at 同盟 信用 貯金, the 増加する in 容積/容量 of calls over the last week or so had been ごくわずかの.

"It's literally a handful, but the calls we have had are about the 関わりあい/含蓄s for, more than anything else, the 税金 wrappers; and we don't know," he said, referring to the 税金 治療 of 確かな 投資s.

Smyth said 報知係s seemed to be taking 慰安 from 同盟 信用's 計画(する)s to 始める,決める up a separate 合法的な (独立の)存在 south of the 国境 to 保護する UK 投資家s based outside of Scotland.

"It doesn't appear to be 原因(となる)ing 投資家s any real 関心 at this point." (報告(する)/憶測ing by Simon Jessop. Editing by Jane Merriman)

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