Who cares about the lead market?: Andy Home
By Andy Home
LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - On Tuesday this week base metals prices 宙返り／暴落するd.
The 誘発する／引き起こす appeared to be another 減少（する） of Chinese 悲観論主義, this one 配達するd by 首相 Li, who wrong-footed markets with a low-ball 査定／評価 of the country's money 供給（する） growth.
Shanghai 仲買人s led the 耐える 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金, which 流出／こぼすd over into London, where the その後の sell-off was 加速するd by technical 仲買人s of all 形態／調整s and sizes.
One of the worst 攻撃する，衝突する metals was lead.
London Metal 交流 (LME) three-month lead 崩壊（する）d from $2,200 per tonne to $2,129 at Tuesday's の近くに, the 低迷 延長するing to $2,104 早期に Wednesday.
In doing so, it 横断するd a good part of the claustrophobic $2,000-2,300 範囲 that has defined this market for over a year.
The move also blew open the differential with "sister metal" zinc to almost $200 per tonne, the widest gap seen since 2010. 貿易（する）ing lead and zinc, which more often than not come from the same 地雷s, as a 親族 value pair is one of the London Street's favourite past-times.
And that pretty much sums up lead's 最近の 貿易（する）ing history. 欠如（する）ing any intrinsic narrative, it has been 大部分は left to do its own thing, which has not 量d to very much. Its main relevance is to 行為／法令／行動する as dull 反対する-balance to zinc, a far sexier proposition with its 約束 of 未解決の 地雷 不足（高）.
Such 集団の／共同の 無関心／冷淡 has defined this market for many months with LME open 利益／興味
But someone cares. Beneath the inactive surface it is （疑いを）晴らす that there are big players 持つ／拘留するing long positions. Which begs the question as to whether this unloved metal might yet have the 可能性のある to spring a surprise or two.
************************************************************* Graphic on the LME lead-zinc 割合 貿易（する）: http://link.reuters.com/nem82w *************************************************************
NO NARRATIVE
Lead's problem, from a 貿易（する）ing 視野, is that it 欠如（する）s any distinguishing features.
It should, in theory, be riding shotgun to zinc, one of the 最高の，を越す performers の中で the LME base metals pack this year.
If zinc is a bullish play based on the 井戸／弁護士席-flagged 終結 of some of the world's biggest 地雷s, lead should be benefitting. Every zinc 地雷 that bites the dust will take with it a bit of lead 供給（する）, even if the 衝撃 is 少なくなるd by the 激しい metal's higher 捨てる dependency.
In practice, however, any signals emanating from the lead market 示唆する only comfortable 供給（する） and unexciting 需要・要求する.
LME 在庫／株s movements may be a poor 指示する人（物） of underlying dynamics in the metal markets, but they do at least 供給する a useful fiction with which to weave a good story.
LME zinc 在庫／株s, for example, have fallen by over 18 パーセント this year, even with the 最近の 流入s into 登録（する）d sheds in New Orleans.
LME lead 在庫／株s, by contrast, are up by 6 パーセント at 225,900 tonnes. The 量 of metal sitting in the 交流's cancelled 令状 categ ory （ーのために）とっておくd for drawdown is just 4,975 tonnes. The 割合 of cancelled to total tonnage stands at 2.2 パーセント, the lowest of any of the 核心 LME metals.
Then there is 中国. The country is still a 逮捕する importer of zinc, albeit まず第一に／本来 to 会合，会う financiers' 需要・要求する for collateral rather than 製造業者s' 需要・要求する for metal.
When it comes to 精製するd lead, however, 中国 has been a 逮捕する 輸出業者 since the beginning of last year, 示唆するing no 不足 in the engine-room of 産業の metals usage.
True, the 月毎の 公式発表s from the International Lead and Zinc 熟考する／考慮する Group do 示唆する the lead market is 発展させるing from 黒字／過剰 to 赤字 but an 査定する／（税金などを）課すd cumulative 不足（高） of 22,500 tonnes in the first half of this year is so small as to 落ちる within the 利ざやs of 統計に基づく error.
ーに関して／ーの点でs of bull story-line it's not much to go on, which is why the hot money is in markets such as nickel and zinc, leaving lead to oscillate around its 井戸／弁護士席-trodden, long-standing 範囲.
DOMINANT LONGS
But not everyone, it seems, has abandoned the lead market.
On the LME there is a 支配的な long position, 持つ／拘留するing 50-80 パーセント of all 非，不，無-cancelled lead 在庫／株s <_0LME-WHL> and with a complementary cash position 同等（の） to 40-50 パーセント of 在庫／株s <_0LME-WCH>.
The 外見 of this long has 同時に起こる／一致するd with a 示すd 強化するing of the nearby spreads since late July.
At one 行う／開催する／段階 last month the LME's （判断の）基準 cash-to-three-months spread
That spread has subsequently 緩和するd but was still valued at $12 contango as of Thursday's の近くに, compared with over $20 contango during most of the second ４半期/4分の1.
That 示唆するs latent 緊張 and it may be a 調印する of more tightness to come. The LME's 未来s banding 報告（する）／憶測 <_0LME-FBR> shows a ぱらぱら雨ing of short positions on each of the prime 誘発する days in the next three months (September, October and November).
Nor is this just a London 現象. There is also some sort of bull play in the Shanghai market.
************************************************************* Graphic on the SHFE lead price and open 利益／興味: http://link.reuters.com/rem82w *************************************************************
Open 利益／興味 in the Shanghai 未来s 交流's (SHFE) lead 契約 mushroomed from 20,000 to 60,000 契約s in the space of a few days at the end of July.
The SHFE lead price ロケット／急騰するd higher. It has subsequently 崩壊（する）d again. Indeed, at 14,050 yuan, basis the most active 延長／続編 month, it is now lower than when it started on its みごたえのある but short-lived 決起大会／結集させる.
But SHFE open 利益／興味 hasn't fallen by nearly so much. It is still above 40,000 契約s, 示唆するing that whoever was behind the 初めの 殺到する is 大部分は still there.
明確に, this unloved market still has fans, and big ones at that.
SURPRISE?
But why are they there and what are they hoping for? Upside 可能性のある looks 限られた／立憲的な, 特に after Tuesday's ignominious 低迷.
It's 価値（がある）, however, always remembering two things about the lead market.
Firstly, lead is one of the more cyclically seasonal metals because of its usage in lead-酸性の 殴打／砲列s and their annoying habit of failing when the 天候's too hot or too 冷淡な.
The Northern 半球 winter is therefore often dubbed the "殴打／砲列 kill season" with 交替／補充 殴打／砲列 需要・要求する 生成するing a 選ぶ-up in 需要・要求する for lead over and above the new 殴打／砲列 構成要素 of the market.
"Kill season" is 急速な／放蕩な approaching.
Secondly, lead is one of the least transparent of LME-貿易（する）d metals. That's because of the high 量 of 捨てる that is used in the 供給（する） chain. Other than for those 直接／まっすぐに 伴う／関わるd in the 商売／仕事, 捨てる 代表するs a 集団の／共同の blind 位置／汚点／見つけ出す in any LME metals market.
捨てる 緊張s have in the past 後部d up and bit an unsuspecting LME lead market, where the 焦点（を合わせる） is on 精製するd metal 供給（する） and 需要・要求する dynamics. In other words, by the time everyone's realised there's a 捨てる problem, it's 普通は too late.
Might lead be 均衡を保った to spring one of its 時折の surprises?
The market structuring in both London and Shanghai can't in itself answer that question. But it does say that someone at least cares.
(Editing by William Hardy)
