塀で囲む St Week Ahead-As energy 株 宙返り／暴落する, 適切な時期 lurks
By Rodrigo Campos
NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Shale 在庫／株s have been hard-攻撃する，衝突する as 投資家s see 利ざやs all but evaporating に引き続いて the slide in 天然のまま oil prices, but the U.S. shale energy にわか景気 is not over.
An 索引 of oil and gas 探検 and 生産／産物 宙返り／暴落するd 8.15 パーセント on Friday as U.S. 天然のまま fell almost 10 パーセント to around $66.36 per バーレル／樽 to 攻撃する，衝突する its lowest in 4-1/2 years.
The slide （機の）カム the day after oil cartel 石油輸出国機構 decided not to 削減（する） 生産（高） in a 会合 in Vienna. 事前の to the 決定／判定勝ち（する）, Saudi 公式の／役人s were 報告（する）／憶測d as 説 the kingdom, with its large 通貨 reserves, was 用意が出来ている to withstand oil prices as low as $70-$80 per バーレル／樽 for up to a year.
But the 女性 shale players may not have that long.
"We do not know if 石油輸出国機構 has ulterior 動機s to let oil prices drift lower and pinch the 全世界の (探検 and 生産／産物) 部門, or if reaching a 合意 on 削減（する）s was just too challenging," wrote 井戸／弁護士席s Fargo 安全s in a Friday （弁護士の）依頼人 公式文書，認める. "What is （疑いを）晴らす is that lower cash flows are 高度に likely to translate into lower E&P spending."
U.S. 天然のまま prices were catching up to Thursday's 活動／戦闘 in Brent as markets across the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs were の近くにd for the Thanksgiving holiday. Friday's was a half-day 開会／開廷／会期.
"We'll wait to see the 傾向 next week when there's 十分な market 容積／容量, however it's （疑いを）晴らす that as oil prices come 負かす／撃墜する there will be 圧力 for the 女性 of the companies in the 部門, 特に 探検 and the ones that are 高度に indebted," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential 財政上の in Newark, New Jersey.
The 全体にわたる energy 部門 of the S&P 500 fell 6.3 パーセント on Friday, 追加するing to its year-to-date losses, now at 10.3 パーセント.
Fourteen of the 部門's more than 40 在庫／株s are within 2 パーセント of a 52-week low and the 部門's 負わせるing on the S&P 500 has dropped to 選び出す／独身 digits, の近くにing below 8 パーセント after Friday's shellacking, によれば Reuters data.
Nearly 90 パーセント of the 部門's 株 are 貿易（する）ing below their 100-day moving 普通の／平均（する）.
However, the sharp 拒絶する／低下するs also create an 適切な時期.
"We recently moved from an underweight to a 中立の 負わせる 率ing in energy, so directionally we agree with the idea that this 証拠不十分 is a buying 適切な時期, but it is very hard to tell where the 底（に届く） is," said Tony Roth, 長，指導者 投資 officer at Wilmington 信用 in Wilmington, Delaware.
"天然のまま seems to have no 床に打ち倒す 権利 now, and we could easily see the price 減少（する） into the low $60s."
With the big 在庫／株 price 減少（する）s, others see a run to consolidation. The 部門 subindex is 負かす／撃墜する 12 パーセント in 2014, with year-to-date losses of more than 20 パーセント in seven companies.
"I think we'll see some healthy consolidation take place," said Brian Jacobsen, 長，指導者 大臣の地位 strategist at 井戸／弁護士席s Fargo 基金s 管理／経営 in Menomonee 落ちるs, Wisconsin.
"Some may wither on the vine, but 科学（工学）技術 has 改善するd to make it profitable to 抽出する at a lower price point than last year. As a res ult, we'll probably see some opportunistic buying."
Jacobsen and Krosby said the slide in oil prices and the 部門's 株 does not mean the にわか景気 in the energy 部門 in the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs is ending, but will likely enter a new 行う／開催する／段階 of 開発.
"The renaissance isn't over," said Jacobsen. "It's just 円熟したing." (報告（する）／憶測ing by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Nick Zieminski)
