Ageing Europe needs the migrants it doesn't want
By Paul Taylor
PARIS, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Europe is ageing faster than any other 地域 of the world. It 不正に needs 移民，移住（する）s. But many Europeans don't want them.
The "old continent" may be able to 相殺する the 衝撃 of a greying 全労働人口 until around 2020 by bringing more women and 年輩の people into work, encouraging mobility within Europe and making better use of 存在するing migrants, EU and 経済協力開発機構 専門家s say.
But in the medium to long 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語, the European Union will need to attract 重要な numbers of 技術d 労働者s from beyond its 国境s - and 打ち勝つ growing public 対立 最高潮の場面d by the rise of 人民党員 anti-移民／移住 parties.
"If you の近くに the door (to 移民／移住), you will 支払う／賃金 an 経済的な price," says ジーンズ-Christophe Dumont, an 専門家 on 移住 at the Organisation for 経済的な 協調 and 開発, a Paris-based intergovernmental think-戦車／タンク.
"For now, we can make better use of migrants who are already here, matching their 技術s better to 労働 market needs. In the longer 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語, it will not only be about matching 技術s, it will also be about numbers," he said.
Going by 現在の 傾向s, Europe's 産業の powerhouse Germany, along with Spain and Poland, will see its 全住民 縮む 今後, slowing 可能性のある 経済成長.
Germany's 82 million 居住（者）s will dwindle to 74.7 million by 2050 and their 普通の／平均（する） age will rise to nearly 50, assuming 不変の levels of 移住, acco rding to EU 統計（学） 機関 Eurostat. Some 発射／推定s are even more 悲惨な, putting the German 全住民 as low as 65 million by 2060.
That will mean "serious 労働 供給（する） 強制s" in some of the strongest EU economies - Austria, the Netherlands and Finland 同様に as Germany - によれば a European （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限 熟考する／考慮する by Joerg Peschner and Constantinos Fotakis that took a baseline 経済的な 回復 of just 1 パーセント.
By contrast, Britain, フラン, Ireland and to a lesser extent Italy can 推定する／予想する healthy 拡大. Britain will have overtaken the Germans by 2050 as the EU's most populous nation with 77.2 million - if it stays in the 圏 - while フラン will have caught up with Germany on 74.3 million.
関わりなく their place on the 規模, many European countries still 回復するing from six years of 経済的な 危機 are 存在 tugged in the opposite direction from demographic realities by a tide of anti-移民／移住 political rhetoric.
海洋 Le Pen in フラン, Nigel Farage in Britain and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands are attracting working-class 投票者s by 激怒（する）ing against freedom of movement of 労働者s within the EU, from the poorer east and south to the wealthier north.
They 告発する／非難する the EU of 開始 the flood gates to "職業 stealing" migrants, 運動ing 負かす／撃墜する 給料 and living 基準s and raising 罪，犯罪 率s.
For a 一連の graphics on Europe's ageing problem, click here:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/14/europedemographics/索引.html
DEMOGRAPHICS DRIVE DEMAND
The （激しい）反発 against 移民／移住 誘発するd ローマ法王 Francis to 控訴，上告 in the European 議会 for an "年輩の and hagga rd" continent to show a more welcoming 直面する to those who cross the Mediterranean Sea in search of a better life.
Another 圧力（をかける）ing argument for 合理的な／理性的な 審議 is the growing 衝撃 of the demographic 逆転 on the 基金ing of 年金s and healthcare, 特に in countries such as Germany and Spain which will have the oldest 全住民s.
As the 地位，任命する-World War Two baby にわか景気 世代 retires, the 割合 of over-65-year-olds to the working age 全住民 is 始める，決める to rise 劇的な, while the number of under-15s 拒絶する／低下するs by nearly 15 パーセント by 2060, によれば 発射／推定s by Eurostat.
At 現在の, the age dependence 率 is 27.5 on 普通の／平均（する） in the 28-nation EU, but Germany and Italy are 井戸／弁護士席 above that level. The 率 is 事業／計画（する）d to jump to 49.4 in 2050, when there will be only two people of working age for every retiree.
Most EU countries have raised their 退職 age to 65 or beyond and are making 国民s 与える／捧げる longer for a 十分な 年金 - but その上の 増加するs 嘘（をつく） ahead.
一方／合間 there's the 衝撃 on Europe's economy of having a big chunk of the 全住民 焦点（を合わせる）d on "needs, rather than wants," to consider, as Paul Hodges, co-author of the e-調書をとる／予約する "にわか景気, Gloom and The New Normal", explains.
"Demographics 運動 需要・要求する," he said. "Older people have いっそう少なく need for houses, cars and 消費者 goods and have to make do on lower incomes as they move on to 年金 age, slowing the wheels of the economy."
Before the 財政上の 危機 爆発するd in 2008, 経済成長 in the euro zone 普通の／平均（する）d 2 パーセント a year, 概略で made up of a 1 パーセント 伸び（る） in 雇用 and 1 パーセント in 生産性.
That growth 可能性のある, regarded as necessary to 持続する the 現在の level of European 福利事業 準備／条項, 崩壊（する）d during the 危機 and has yet to return in most countries.
Without 雇用 伸び（る）s from 移住, Europe will need an improbably big 上げる in 生産性 to 支える its living 基準s - or see them 拒絶する／低下する.
(Editing by マイク Peacock and Sophie Walker)
