Two months to go and 英貨の／純銀の 選挙 危険s 限定するd to 選択s
By Anirban Nag
LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - いっそう少なく than two months before a 深く，強烈に uncertain British 総選挙, the 続けざまに猛撃する stands at a six-year high, 示唆するing 投資家s are ignoring political 危険s to 持つ／拘留するing the 通貨.
英貨の／純銀の's rise to its highest against a 通貨 basket since September 2008 is おもに 原因（となる）d by the 弱めるing of the euro as the European Central Bank begins its 社債-buying programme on Monday. 強健な data has also helped 解除する 英貨の／純銀の, with 投資家s pricing in a chance of a 率 引き上げ（る） in 早期に 2016
英貨の／純銀の's 伸び（る）s, though, mask 重要な hedging and 思索的な bets against the 続けざまに猛撃する in the derivatives market. The cost of hedging against sharp swings in the 続けざまに猛撃する against the dollar and euro around the time of the 選挙 -- in May and June -- have risen to 二塁打 digits.
"Although the 最近の 位置／汚点／見つけ出す price 活動／戦闘 does not 示唆する market 関心s about the 選挙 危険 and the build-up of the 危険 賞与金, this is not the 事例／患者 in the 選択 market, which has been ひどく pricing in political 危険 賞与金," said Petr Krpata, 通貨 分析家 at ING.
Hedge 基金s, for example, are taking no chances, unlike last year. Many were caught napping before the Scottish independence 投票（する） in September, which 誘発する／引き起こすd a 大規模な 一区切り／（ボクシングなどの）試合 of volatility and a 拒絶する／低下する in the 続けざまに猛撃する. Now they are buying 選択s, betting on 英貨の／純銀の 証拠不十分.
The three-month 暗示するd volatilit y for 英貨の／純銀の/dollar 貿易（する）s at just over 10 パーセント, compared with 9.5 パーセント for the six-month and 9.4 パーセント for nine-month 選択s.
The two- and three-month 危険 逆転s, a 計器 of 需要・要求する for 選択s on a 通貨 rising or 落ちるing, are showing more bias for 英貨の／純銀の 証拠不十分 against the dollar.
"We are buying three-month 英貨の／純銀の/dollar downside 選択s," said Howard Jones, partner at RMG Wealth, a 経営者／支配人 of 全世界の 大型の and foreign 交流 戦略s. "The UK has been 製図／抽選 投資s because of political 安定. That might not be the 事例／患者 after May."
NECK AND NECK
Opinion 投票s show the 判決，裁定 保守的な Party and the 対立 労働 neck-and-neck, making a hung 議会 a strong 見込み after the May 7 投票（する）.
At the same time, the Scottish 国家の Party, the party that （選挙などの）運動をするd to 分裂（する） Scotland from the 部隊d Kingdom, is seen making inroads and might enter a 連合, keeping alive the prospect of a break-up. The 選挙 will also decide whether the UK 持つ／拘留するs a 国民投票 on European Union 会員の地位.
にもかかわらず these, 英貨の／純銀の 貿易（する）s at more than seven-year highs against the euro and recently 攻撃する，衝突する an eight-week high against the dollar, before 落ちるing.
"This 選挙 is very uncertain, and while 英貨の／純銀の's correlation 歴史的に to previous 選挙s has not been strong, this time it could be different," said Richard Falkenhall, 通貨 strategist at SEB. "We think the 不確定 created will see 英貨の／純銀の lose ground in coming months."
最近の 選挙s have been a bit more predictable, 支えるing Britain's position as a 安全な 港／避難所 for 投資. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ GRAPHIC ON PAST UK ELECTION, SCOTTISH VOTE AND STERLING http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/2015/03/09/115938651c.htm ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
投資家 関心s 含む the prospect of heavier spending, higher 税金s, 財政上の-部門 規則 by a centre-left 労働-led 政府 and the 可能性 of Britain's leaving the European Union under the 保守的なs, who have 誓約（する）d a 国民投票 on 会員の地位 within two years.
Daragh Maher, a strategist at HSBC, said in a 公式文書，認める that a 保守的な-led 政府 could see 英貨の／純銀の come under selling 圧力 before any EU 国民投票. And any 救済 that a 労働-led 連合 with the Scottish 国家の Party would not 捜し出す an EU 国民投票 could 証明する short-lived.
"An 付加 downside for 英貨の／純銀の is that the SNP's 目だつ 役割 in 政府 could raise fresh 関心s about the likely longevity of the 部隊d Kingdom, and the prospect of a new 国民投票 on Scottish independence," he wrote. (報告（する）／憶測ing by Anirban Nag, graphics by Vincent Flasseur; Editing by Larry King)
