Iran 拡大するs 地域の "empire" ahead of 核の 取引，協定
By Samia Nakhoul
BEIRUT, March 23 (Reuters) - With Iran moving closer to a を取り引きする world 力／強力にするs to constrain its 核の programme in return for an end to 許可／制裁s, Arab 分析家s and leaders are 焦点（を合わせる）d more on how Tehran is working unconstrained to 強化する its 支配する on Arab 明言する／公表するs, from Iraq to Lebanon, and Syria to Yemen.
The man behind what some see as an 試みる／企てる to create a new Persian and Shi'ite "empire" on Arab land is Major General Qassem Soleimani, 指揮官 of the al-Quds 旅団 of the エリート Islamic 革命の Guard 軍団 (IRGC).
Since he 現れるd from the 影をつくる／尾行するs last autumn, Soleimani seems to be omnipresent on the 戦場s of the Middle East.
Photos of Soleimani, 60, almost an invisible man until the Sunni jihadis of Islamic 明言する／公表する (IS) overran cities in northern and central Iraq last year, are now everywhere.
He is seen directing 操作／手術s in the 戦う／戦い to 再度捕まえる from IS the Sunni city of Tikrit, birthplace of Saddam Hussein. He is snapped in Syria 申し込む／申し出ing 弔慰s on the 殺人，大当り of a 親族 of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian 大統領，／社長 he has helped 粘着する to 力／強力にする during four years of war.
In Beirut he is photographed praying at the 墓／厳粛／彫る／重大な of Jihad Mughniyeh, son of the late 指揮官 of the IRGC-支援するd Hezbollah 議会の group. Jihad was killed in Syria in January.
一方／合間, the heterodox Shi'ite Houthi movement in Yemen has 掴むd 力／強力にする in the 資本／首都, Sanaa, to Iranian acclaim and the alarm of Sunni Arab 明言する／公表するs such as 隣人ing Saudi Arabia, Iran's 地域の 競争相手.
Such is Soleimani's personal sway that a Syrian 対立 website has put up a spoof 選挙 poster 説: "投票（する） for Qassem Soleimani, 大統領 of Syria."
GAME CHANGER?
Iran may be serious about a 核の 取引，協定 that ends its pariah status and the 手足を不自由にする／（物事を）損なうing 許可／制裁s. But it has been maximizing its strength across the Middle East and, because Iranian 軍隊s and 連合した 民兵s are spearheading the fight against IS in Iraq and Syria, Sunni Arab leaders believe the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs will do nothing to stop this.
This month, U.S. 国務長官 John Kerry 保証するd Saudi leaders there would be no "grand 取引" with Tehran 大（公）使館員d to any 取引，協定. Yet in a news 会議／協議会 at which Kerry 定評のある that Soleimani was 伴う／関わるd in Tikrit, his host, Saudi 外務大臣 Saud al-Faisal, almost 爆発するd.
"The 状況／情勢 in Tikrit is a prime example of what we're worried about," said Prince Saud. "Iran is taking over Iraq."
That is why, 地域の 分析家s say, it is not so much the 見込みのある 核の 取引，協定 that is panicking the 湾 and its Sunni 同盟（する）s such as Egypt, but what a U.S.-Iran 親善 may bring.
暴君 al-Qassemi, a commentator in the 部隊d Arab 首長国s, says: "The Iranian 取引，協定 is a game-changer for the 地域 and I think it is going to encourage Iran to 追求する an even more assertive 外交政策.
"This 取引，協定 is the grand 取引 Kerry is 否定するing it is. It is giving Iran carte blanche in 交流 for e mpty 約束s. Iran is on the ascendant. Iran has the winning 手渡す in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen."
Riad Kahwaji, 長，率いる of the Dubai-based INEGMA think 戦車／タンク, 警告するd of "all-out sectarian war" between Sunnis and Shi'ites.
"The events in Iraq, Syria and Yemen 示す that Iran is on a 大規模な 不快な／攻撃 under the cover of a U.S.-led war on テロ行為, to 伸び（る） 戦略の depth that has 延長するd its areas of 支配（する）／統制する all the way to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean."
SECTARIAN FIRESTORM REKINDLED
The schism between Sunnis and Shi'ites dates from すぐに after the 夜明け of Islam 14 centuries ago. In modern times, this often translated into 競争 between the Wahhabi fundamentalism of Sunni Saudi Arabia and the Shi'ite 神権政治 of Iran.
But the 倒す of Saddam's Sunni 少数，小数派 支配する by the U.S.-led 侵略 in 2003 and its 交替／補充 by a Shi'ite Islamist 政府 under the sway of Iran has 再燃するd a sectarian firestorm.
The Saudis and their 同盟（する）s have 支援するd Sunni 軍隊s, 含むing 反逆者／反逆するs fighting to 倒れる Assad. Riyadh 正式に 支援するs mainstream 反逆者／反逆するs in this ますます Sunni-Shi'ite stand-off, but support from 湾 明言する／公表するs and 国家のs is believed to have reached jihadi groups.
That is certainly an アリバイ used by Shi'ites to 正当化する 介入.
In Syria, when Assad seemed likely to succumb to the おもに Sunni 反乱 two years ago, Iran （軍隊を）展開する，配備するd its Lebanese 同盟（する） Hezbollah.
Soleimani and the al-Quds 旅団, created in 1980 to 輸出（する） Iran's Islamic 革命, patched together a 網状組織 of 現体制支持者／忠臣 民兵s that is now the backbone of Syrian 支配する.
In Iraq, after the IS 爆発 in 中央の-2014, the al-Quds 指揮官 put together a 類似の 連合 of Shi'ite 民兵s, first to defend Baghdad and the south and now to carry the fight northwards into jihadi 要塞／本拠地s such as Tikrit.
His 同盟（する）s in Iran, 一方／合間, such as Tehran MP Ali Reza Zakani - like Soleimani, の近くに to 最高の leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - 誇る they have three Arab 資本／首都s in the 捕らえる、獲得する, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, with Sanaa soon to follow.
によれば Iran's Rasa new 機関, Zakani said that "had Hajj Qassem Soleimani not 介入するd in Iraq, Baghdad would have fallen, and the same 適用するs to Syria; without the will of Iran, Syria would have fallen".
述べるing events in Yemen as a "natural 拡張" of the Iranian 革命, Zakani 予報するd 14 of Yemen's 20 州s would soon be under Houthi 支配（する）／統制する.
"The Yemeni 革命 will not be 限定するd to Yemen alone" he said. It would 延長する into Saudi 領土s - a 言及／関連 not only to the kingdom's long, porous 国境 with Yemen but the Shi'ite Eastern 州 where Saudi Arabia's richest oil deposits 嘘（をつく）.
FOUR CAPITALS IN THE BAG?
John Jenkins, until last year British 外交官／大使 to Saudi Arabia and now with the International 学校／設ける of 戦略の 熟考する／考慮するs, 示唆するs US inattention to the 地域's 関心s is worrying.
"Already we see Iranian 公式の／役人s 説 that they 支配（する）／統制する four Arab 資本／首都s, and we have seen Houthi 代表s travel to Tehran and Baghdad. This plays into the 湾 Arab narrative that they are 存在 sold 負かす／撃墜する the river," Jenkins says.
"The U.S. presence in the 地域 is as strong as its ever been, but the 湾 Arabs' questions are about the Western will to 行為／法令／行動する. They've seen examples in Lebanon and Syria of US inaction. And Yemen is the tip of the spear as far as the Saudis are 関心d. Behind Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen stands Iran."
While the Obama 行政 捜し出すs to 安心させる Arab 同盟（する）s that it remains committed to them, 分析家s say Washington's 優先 is to stop Iran developing an 原子の 爆弾 and 停止（させる） IS 拡大.
"Obama believes that reaching a 核の を取り引きする Iran could be his 外交政策 遺産／遺物. The Americans are not looking at the を取り引きする Iran ーに関して／ーの点でs of its 地域の 衝撃," says Fawaz Gerges, Middle East 専門家 at the London School of 経済的なs.
"The U.S. を取り引きする Iran would 深く，強烈に 強める a new 冷戦 that has been 広げるing between Saudi Arabia and its 同盟（する）s on one 手渡す and Iran. It would likely 注ぐ more ガソリン on the 激怒（する）ing 解雇する／砲火／射撃s in the Arab 中心地域." (付加 報告（する）／憶測ing by William Maclean,; Babak Dehghanpisheh and Sam Wilkin; Editing by Giles Elgood)
