From Bangladesh flood 地図／計画する to the Bank of England, a "炭素 泡" is born
By Nina Chestney and Bruce Wallace
PARIS, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Poring over a Bangladeshi flood 地図／計画する as a London 財政上の 分析家 12 years ago, 示す Campanale had no idea the moment would spawn a 財政上の 概念 powerful enough to rivet central 銀行業者s, 怒り／怒る oil moguls and 燃料 a grassroots movement to get 投資家s to 捨てる their 化石 燃料 holdings.
The 地図／計画する was in the prospectus of a British 会社／堅い 捜し出すing to raise money to build a coal-解雇する／砲火／射撃d 力／強力にする 工場／植物 in Bangladesh. Not only was Campanale angry that a company would pump more 炭素 放出／発行s into the 空気／公表する from a low-lying country 攻撃を受けやすい to 気候 change in the form of rising sea levels; he was also mystified that 投資家s didn't see the 財政上の 危険s that went with it.
"I was 感情を害する／違反するd that the markets weren't 選ぶing up the 危険s, given what we knew about coal and 気候 change," Campanale 解任するs. "I thought: 'This is mad'."
More than a １０年間 later, Campanale's eureka moment has grown into a powerful - and vigorously contested - theory: that energy 投資家s are sitting on a $2 一兆 "炭素 泡" because 広大な 量s of coal, oil and gas companies' reserves will never be 抽出するd if the world is to 限界 itself to a rise in 全世界の 気温s of 2 degrees Celsius over pre-産業の levels.
The 概念 has rippled out from that Bangladeshi 地図／計画する to bec ome part of the 気候 change lexicon. It has formed the basis for 警告s about "立ち往生させるd 資産s" by Bank of England 知事 示す Carney and 奮起させるd groups like Norway's 君主 wealth 基金 to divest billions in 化石 燃料 holdings.
It has also been embraced by green 行動主義者s usually 敵意を持った to market 解答s for 気候 change, 点火（する）ing a 全世界の （選挙などの）運動をする to get 投資家s to divest from 化石 燃料s. It has resonated across 全世界の 気候 change 会談 in Paris this week, even if it has not yet entered the formal 協議事項.
MONEY NOT MORALITY
The 概念 "転換d the argument fundamentally from an 倫理的な or moral 問題／発行する into one which has an 衝撃 on 危険 to 大臣の地位s", says Charlie Thomas, 経営者／支配人 of Jupiter 資産 管理／経営's 生態学 基金, valued at 429 million 続けざまに猛撃するs ($648 million).
化石 燃料 companies vigorously 論争 the （人命などを）奪う，主張する that their 資産s will ever be 立ち往生させるd, many 説 the phrase is a political lever for 過激な green 行動主義者s, not a レンズ for serious 財政上の 分析. Oil and gas 会社／堅いs bristle at 存在 lumped into the 審議 と一緒に 炭素-集中的な coal.
But Campanale 持続するs the 開拓するing work he and his 同僚s 行為／行うd was never about politics.
"We weren't thinking of a political narrative at all," he says. "We said there are 危険s riddled across the system, and that the answer to the 炭素 泡 was to 演説（する）／住所 the regulatory challenges."
In the years に引き続いて the Bangladeshi prospectus, Campanale began honing the 問題／発行する with Nick コマドリs, a former HSBC 分析家, and Jeremy Leggett, an oil and gas 顧問-turned-環境の-行動主義者. In the 早期に days, they called the 現象 "unusable reserves". It didn't stick.
After the failed 2009 気候 首脳会議 in Copenhagen, Leggett wrote an opinion piece in Britain's 後見人 newspaper 最高潮の場面ing long-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 危険s to coal 投資s. The article caught the attention of Joanna Messing, (n)役員／(a)執行力のある director of the Growald Family 基金, a philanthropic 基金 co-設立するd by the youngest child of David Rockefeller.
Messing made a 冷淡な call to Leggett, asking about his theory and "whether he had an idea about how to take 活動／戦闘", she said.
基金ing from the Rockefellers and others quickly followed, 許すing Campanale, Leggett and ex-WWF 政策 助言者 James Leaton in 2010 to 開始する，打ち上げる 炭素 Tracker, a London-based think 戦車／タンク 焦点（を合わせる）d on the 財政上の 衝撃 of 気候 change.
THE BUBBLE SURFACES
Their 打開 was a 2011 報告（する）／憶測 called "Unburnable 炭素 - are the world's 財政上の markets carrying a 炭素 泡?", which 結論するd that 80 per cent of world's reserves would have to stay in the ground if the world was to 会合，会う its 2 degree 的.
炭素 Tracker printed only a hundred or so copies, 分配するing them to London 投資 経営者／支配人s and 分析家s.
"I did think at the time that, once we'd 開始する，打ち上げるd the 研究, it was '職業 done'," Campanale said.
But they 押し進めるd the 概念 at 財政上の 集会s, ロビーing (n)役員／(a)執行力のあるs at the 年次の Davos 経済的な 会議 and 支持を得ようと努めるing Bank of England 長，指導者 経済学者 Andrew Haldane with the idea of a sub-prime mortgage-style 脅し to the 財政上の system.
It was their Rockefeller 関係 that introduced the 概念 to American 行動主義者 circles. A program director at the Rockefeller Brothers 基金 gave one of the copies to Canadian author and 行動主義者 Naomi Klein, who passed it along to 目だつ U.S. 環境保護主義者 法案 McKibben.
McKibben, a long-time writer on 気候 change who 変えるd his 網状組織 of readers into the powerful 350.org grassroots movement, says it took him some time to work out the 報告（する）／憶測's significance.
But the に引き続いて summer, his article "全世界の Warming's Terrifying New Math", published in Rolling 石／投石する magazine, introduced the 炭素 泡 to a new audience of students and church groups, grist for their nascent （選挙などの）運動をするs to get 投資家s to divest from 化石 燃料s.
FROM ROLLING STONE TO SNOWBALL
It was "maybe the most-株d thing I'd written since my 初めの 調書をとる／予約する on 気候 change way 支援する in 1989," McKibben said.
The 宗教的な Sisters of St. Dominic of Caldwell, New Jersey, got the message. In April 2013, they 提案するd a 決意／決議 at ExxonMobil's 株主 会合 arguing that "sooner or later, 制限s on 炭素 放出／発行s will be necessary", によれば Exxon's SEC とじ込み／提出するing.
"This has led 経済学者s to 恐れる a '炭素 泡' as 現在の 投資s may be 立ち往生させるd," they wrote. The 動議 was 拒絶するd by 73.3 パーセント, but the phrase had been used in a U.S. 公表，暴露 for the first time.
In the last few months alone, New York's 弁護士／代理人／検事 general has 軍隊d one coal 関心, Peabody, to 公表する／暴露する its own 査定／評価s of the 危険s it 直面するs from any 増加するd 規則 of 温室 gas 放出／発行s, and begun 調査／捜査するing oil 巨大（な） Exxon Mobil Corp on 類似の grounds.
After first ignoring the 問題／発行する, the energy 産業 has begun to fight 支援する, though 分裂（する）s have appeared in the 過程.
Oil and gas companies, 特に in Europe, ますます distance themselves from coal, which they regard as far more 攻撃を受けやすい to the 泡 argument.
"Of the 2.8 一兆 tonnes of 炭素 泡, two-thirds of it is coal," 王室の Dutch 爆撃する's 長，指導者 財政上の officer Simon Henry told Reuters. He says only 1.5 パーセント of the total is held by international oil and gas companies. "This idea of 立ち往生させるd 資産s is just arithmetic nonsense."
Indeed, coal is 苦しむing most. On the eve of the Paris 会議／協議会, a $34 billion 明言する／公表する 年金 基金 in Sweden pulled out of 28 coal companies, and Allianz, Europe's biggest 保険 会社／堅い, said it would 中止する 投資するing in coal-激しい 採掘 and 公共事業（料金）／有用性 会社／堅いs.
"What was an obscure 報告（する）／憶測 three years ago is now the talking points of the World Bank, the 国際通貨基金 and so on," says McKibben. "It's become （疑いを）晴らす we 簡単に have to keep the 炭素 in the ground." ($1 = 0.6623 続けざまに猛撃するs)
(付加 報告（する）／憶測ing by Valerie Volcovici in Washington and Ron Bousso in London; Editing by Jonathan Leff and Kevin Liffey)
