POLL-East Asian 在庫／株s 直面する 騒然とした end to year, 2017 likely better
By Sumanta Dey
BENGALURU, Oct 4 (Reuters) - East Asian 在庫／株s 直面する a 騒然とした end to the year, buffeted by 高くする，増すd 危険 of a U.S. 利益／興味 率 引き上げ（る） in December and worries about 中国, but a Reuters 投票 also 示唆するs 投資家s can 推定する／予想する better returns in 2017.
現れるing market 公正，普通株主権s have 成し遂げるd unevenly in 2016 after 中国's 経済的な 減産／沈滞 and 通貨 価値低下 in January 始める，決める the トン for a bumpy ride.
Repercussions from Britain's 投票（する） to leave the European Union and a U.S. 大統領の 選挙 in November have also 支配するd money flows and several 公正，普通株主権 strategists said the 見通し over the next six months was かなり 煙霧のかかった.
Given these 可能性のある 危険 factors could 誘発する／引き起こす sudden outflow from 現れるing markets, the Shanghai 合成物 索引 , which is already 負かす／撃墜する more than 15 パーセント this year, is 予測（する） to end 2016 at 3,000 points, just below Friday's の近くに of 3,004.70. 予測（する）s 範囲d from 2,900 to 3,240.
That end-year 予測（する） has been 終始一貫して downgraded throughout the year, from 3,300 points in an April 投票 to 3,050 points in a July 投票.
South Korea's Kospi 索引 and Taiwan's Taiex 索引 are also 始める，決める to 落ちる from here until year-end, the 投票 taken in the past week showed.
"If the Fed raises 率s later this year, the 重要な thing will be what sort of signal it 供給するs for the path of 率s going 今後. At the moment markets are not 推定する／予想するing many 率 引き上げ（る）s (in 2017) but I think they may be complacent," said Julian Evans-Pritchard at 資本／首都 経済的なs.
"A signal of a steeper path for Fed 率s next year would 誘発する／引き起こす 新たにするd strength in the dollar and 証拠不十分 in the Chinese yuan and it will raise 関心s about possible 介入s from the People's Bank of 中国. In the past such 関心s 港／避難所't done any good for 現れるing markets."
Fed 議長，司会を務める Janet Yellen said last month she 推定する／予想するd one 率 rise this year if the U.S. 職業 market continued to 改善する and major new 危険s did not arise, 主要な 経済学者s and 財政上の markets to price in a December move.
But 未来s data show 投資家s are pricing in the chances of a follow-up 率 引き上げ（る） in 2017 at just about one-in-four even as far out as September, compared to Fed policymakers who 予報する two moves next year.
中国, the world's second largest economy, has 刻々と slowed in 最近の years as overcapacity in many 産業s, an overvalued 住宅 market and 悪化するing 全世界の 貿易（する） flows put the ブレーキs on activity.
This comes at a time during which Beijing has been trying to reposition growth toward 消費 rather than 輸出（する）s.
While 中国's economy is starting to show 調印するs of stabilisation, the 合意 の中で 経済学者s is that it still remains 不振の and a build-up of 負債 remains a 危険.
BETTER 2017
The 投票 showed 2017 will be a better year for most east Asian 在庫／株s as 減ずるing 通貨の 政策 不確定 in developed markets and 一般に better growth in the 全世界の economy 増加するs 投資する or appetite for riskier 資産s.
While Chinese 在庫／株s are 予測（する） to rise 9 パーセント across 2017, South Korean 公正，普通株主権s will climb 5 パーセント, によれば the 投票.
"The KOSPI will 延長する 伸び（る）s in 2017 as major economies are 推定する／予想するd to 強化する 徐々に, which will support South Korea's 輸出（する）s," said Sim Byeong-chan, 分析家 at Hyundai 安全s in ソウル.
Taiwan's 株式市場 is the only major 索引 投票d on in Asia which is 推定する／予想するd to 落ちる next year.
The 見通し for a better 2017 is not just 限られた／立憲的な to east Asia as 在庫／株s in the wider 地域, such as in Australia, India and Japan are also 推定する／予想するd to 成し遂げる better.
India's BSE Sensex 索引, which is up 8 パーセント so far this year, is 予測（する） to rise nearly 3 パーセント to 29,000 by the end of December and その上の to a 記録，記録的な／記録する high of 30,400 by 中央の-2017. By the end of 2017 it will rise to 32,000.
Australian 株 are likely to rise 6 パーセント over the next 15 months to 5,800 by end-2017, driven by 記録，記録的な／記録する-low 利益／興味 率s and buttressed by 回復するing 物価s.
Japanese 在庫／株s are 始める，決める for an 年次の 減少（する） in 2016, ending a four-year 'Abenomics' 決起大会／結集させる, but 分析家s 推定する／予想する the Nikkei to 貿易（する） at 18,500 by end-2017, a 伸び（る） of over 11 パーセント from 現在の levels.
(投票 data: )
(Other stories from the Reuters 全世界の 株式市場s 投票: ) (投票ing by bureaus in Bengaluru, ソウル, Shanghai and Taipei; 付加 報告（する）／憶測ing by Dahee Kim in ソウル and Carol 物陰／風下 in Taipei; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
