Why the 転換 to electric cars may surprise oil groups
By Tom Bergin
LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - While many 自動車 (n)役員／(a)執行力のあるs 予報する electric 乗り物s will 代表する a 重要な 株 of 乗り物 sales in ten years, some oil companies 推定する／予想する electricity to still play only a bit part in 輸送（する） 20 years from now
Here are some of the 推論する／理由s why their 見通しs 変化させる:
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
The Oil 見解（をとる）: BP, Exxon's oil market 見通しs published this year do not について言及する driverless 乗り物s. The International Energy 機関 said it had not yet 熟考する／考慮するd the 衝撃 of 自治権のある 運動ing on oil 需要・要求する.
What the carmakers say: Driverless 乗り物s will become a 重要な part of sales toward the end of the next １０年間. They will account for an even larger 株 of miles driven, since the 科学（工学）技術 is 推定する／予想するd to lead to a 削減 in car 所有権 and 増加する in the use of taxi or ride 株ing services, with 乗り物s often operated as part of (n)艦隊／(a)素早いs owned by carmakers or other companies.
Carmakers say electric 乗り物s are more suitable 壇・綱領・公約s for such 自治権のある 乗り物s than ガソリン 力／強力にするd cars. EVs are also seen as attractive for (n)艦隊／(a)素早い owners since high utilization 率s make their lower operating costs attractive and because the より小数の moving parts in EVs, compared to 燃焼 engines, means いっそう少なく 維持／整備 is 要求するd.
BATTERY TECHNOLOGY
The Oil 見解（をとる）: "There remains a 重要な degree of 不確定 surrounding how BEVs will 打ち勝つ 制限s 関係のある to price, 範囲 and 緩和する of 非難する," 石油輸出国機構's 2040 見通し, published in November said. BP said in Feb that it was ありそうもない 殴打／砲列s could compete with oil in cost 条件 before 2035.
"侵入／浸透 of electric 乗り物s and electricity more 一般に is likely to be pretty 限られた／立憲的な over the next 20 years. That's based on the 分析 含む／封じ込めるd in the 科学（工学）技術 見通し published last year, that it takes time until 殴打／砲列 科学（工学）技術 is able to compete" said Spencer Dale, BP 長，指導者 経済学者.
What the carmakers say: 殴打／砲列 非難する times are 落ちるing to いっそう少なく than an hour, and General モーターs' new 2017 Chevy Bolt is the first of several EVs planned for the coming few years with a 範囲 of 200 miles.
殴打／砲列 costs are dropping so that, Ford says these will be below the $100 per kWhour level at which electric 乗り物s would become cost 競争の激しい with 内部の 燃焼 engines 力／強力にするd 乗り物s, by 2025.
CHINA
The Oil 見解（をとる）: 増加するing car 所有権 in 現れるing markets like 中国 will 運動 growth in oil 需要・要求する over the coming １０年間s. BP 予報するd a 63 パーセント 増加する in Chinese oil 消費 - which it put at 12 million バーレル／樽s last year - by 2035. Chinese 運転者s are ありそうもない to want to buy the expensive EVs beloved of many 豊富な western 消費者s.
"EVs are not likely to be a game changer for the growth of oil 需要・要求する over the next 20 years, where the 増加するing 繁栄 in 現れるing Asia is likely to 押し寄せる／沼地 the 衝撃 of even a very 早い 増加する in electric cars," BP Group 長，指導者 経済学者 Spencer Dale in a paper published on Monday.
What the carmakers say: 中国 is 申し込む／申し出ing large incentives to encourage 反対／詐欺 sumers to buy EVs and 推定する／予想するd Chinese 需要・要求する is 運動ing GM's 計画（する）s to roll out 10 new electric 乗り物s, GM CEO Mary Barra said in October.
Beijing is also 圧力（をかける）ing Chinese carmakers to be leaders in developing EVs. "That's a very 批判的な 面 of the 戦略 that the Chinese 政府 has for its own 自動推進の 産業," （頭が）ひょいと動く Shanks, Ford CFO, told 投資家s last year.
COMBUSTION ENGINE EFFICIENCY
The Oil 見解（をとる）: The most cost 効果的な way to 減ずる 放出／発行s and 増加する the energy efficiency of 乗り物s is through continued 改良 of 燃焼 engines and 採択 of hybrids. "改善するing 燃料 economy in ガソリン-燃料d cars is one of the most cost-効果的な ways to 減ずる GHG 放出／発行s, 特に when compared to electric cars," Exxon's 2040 見通し, published earlier this year said.
What the carmakers say: It is becoming harder and more expensive to squeeze efficiency 伸び（る）s from 燃焼 engine 科学（工学）技術.
"It is also important strategically to ramp up the electric 乗り物s to 会合，会う the CO2 2020 的s. Without electrified cars, you can't 会合，会う 2020 的s in Europe, for example, and other parts of the world," BMW chairman Harald Krueger said in August.
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
The Oil 見解（をとる）: Electricity is likely to be unsuitable for 力／強力にするing light トラックで運ぶs and long-distance road haulage in coming １０年間s. "The distances travelled and 負担s 輸送（する）d 大いに 増加する the 需要・要求するs made on electric 殴打／砲列s, making an 早期に electrification of these markets いっそう少なく likely," BP Group 長，指導者 経済学者 Spencer Dale said in 早期に December.
What the carmakers say: Some 自動車 companies 含むing Daimler, Nissan and Volvo say electrification is 選ぶing up in 商業の v ehicles. Ford said 支配するs that often 免除された electrified 商業の 乗り物s from 料金s for 接近ing city centres are 運動ing 利益／興味 in electrification の中で (n)艦隊／(a)素早い owners. "It is a 部門 that is very 役立つ to electrification," Hau Thai-強い味, Ford モーター Company, Group VP, 購入（する）ing said in September. (報告（する）／憶測ing by Tom Bergin; editing by Janet McBride)
