Advantage 石油輸出国機構 in 全世界の 天然のまま game, but no checkmate: Russell
By Clyde Russell
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The 全世界の 天然のまま oil market is starting to 似ている a gigantic game of chess, with a bold 開始 gambit by 石油輸出国機構 and its 同盟（する）s giving them an advantage, but the game is still far from checkmate.
The 週末 取引，協定 by 12 countries outside 石油輸出国機構 to join the 生産者 group's 協定 to 抑制（する） 天然のまま 生産（高） certainly looks bullish for prices, as it takes the total 量 of oil leaving the market in the first half of 2017 to almost 1.8 million バーレル／樽s per day (bpd).
Brent 天然のまま, the 全世界の （判断の）基準, 反応するd 堅固に in 早期に 貿易（する） in Asia on Monday, 伸び（る）ing as much as 6.6 パーセント from the の近くに on Dec. 9 to as much as $57.89 a バーレル／樽.
Brent has 伸び（る）d nearly 40 パーセント since its 早期に August low of just above $41 a バーレル／樽, and has been rising as 石油輸出国機構 first talked about, and then 配達するd, 抑制（する）s to 生産／産物.
The first 石油輸出国機構 and 非，不，無-石油輸出国機構 取引，協定 since 2001 will see Russia, the world's 最高の，を越す 生産者, shouldering most of the 非，不，無-石油輸出国機構 削減（する）s, with a かかわり合い to 減ずる 生産（高） by 300,000 bpd over the first half of next year.
Other 非，不，無-石油輸出国機構 生産者s such as Mexico, Brunei, Malaysia, カザフ共和国, Oman and South Sudan will 半導体素子 in another 280,000 bpd of 削減（する）s, によれば the 協定 reached in Vienna on Dec. 10.
This will 追加する to the 1.2 million bpd of 削減s agreed to by the 13-mem ber 石油輸出国機構 at their 会合 on Nov. 30.
So far it all looks very 肯定的な for the oil 生産者s. They have 達成するd a 幅の広い-based 協定 that 約束s to 削減（する） 生産（高） by about 2 パーセント of the world's daily 天然のまま 消費, which is certainly 重要な.
They have managed to 打ち勝つ political 緊張s and even 敵意s, such as the 競争 between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with both countries 支援 different 味方するs in さまざまな 衝突s around the Middle East.
And 石油輸出国機構 has also been successful in 納得させるing other 生産者s to join in the 削減（する）s. Taken together, the 石油輸出国機構 and 連合した 非，不，無-石油輸出国機構 生産者s account for の近くに to 60 パーセント of 全世界の 天然のまま 生産（高）.
So, what can go wrong?
CHEATING, SHALE
In a nutshell, there are two major things that could 土台を崩す the success of the 石油輸出国機構, 非，不，無-石油輸出国機構 協定.
The first is 同意／服従. Former Saudi oil 大臣 Ali al-Naimi 攻撃する，衝突する the nail on the 長，率いる after an 演説（する）／住所 in Washington on Dec. 2. "Unfortunately, we tend to cheat," the 産業 退役軍人 said of the 石油輸出国機構 取引，協定.
Certainly, for the 取引，協定 to work, much will depend on the 活動／戦闘s of Saudi Arabia and Russia, as they account for almost half of the planned 連合させるd 生産（高） 削減（する）s.
The Saudis have 示すd that they ーするつもりである to 減ずる the 量 of 天然のまま 供給（する）d to 顧客s from January, Reuters 報告（する）／憶測d on Dec. 9, 特記する／引用するing an 産業 source familiar with Saudi 政策.
顧客s in the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs and Europe will 直面する bigger 削減（する）s than those in Asia, 表面上は because of the large 在庫s in the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs.
But it may also be the 事例／患者 that the Saudis want to 保護する their market 株 in Asia, the 目的地 of about two-thirds of their oil 輸出（する）s.
The kingdom has been locked in an 激しい 戦う／戦い with Russia, Iran and Iraq this year in 供給（する）ing 天然のまま to the 地域's 最高の，を越す two 買い手s, 中国 and India.
While the Saudis have 増加するd 全体にわたる 容積／容量s, they 港／避難所't done so by as much as their competitors, meaning they have lost market 株 and so far this year Russia has usurped their position as the 最高の，を越す 供給者 to 中国.
Iraq will 供給（する） 十分な 契約d 容積／容量s of 天然のまま to three Asian 買い手s in January, Reuters 報告（する）／憶測d on Dec. 9, 特記する／引用するing three sources with knowledge of the 事柄.
And Iran 削減（する） its 公式の／役人 selling price of its light 天然のまま grade for Asian 顧客s to the lowest in four months for January 貨物s, although it did raise it for other 地域s.
Taken with ロシアの Energy 大臣 Alexander Novak's 声明 that his country's 削減（する）s next year will be 漸進的な, it's possible that Asian oil markets will remain やめる 井戸／弁護士席 供給（する）d in the 早期に months of 2017.
It will take some time to work out the level of 同意／服従 with the agreed 生産（高） 削減（する）s, and if there is cheating, the question then becomes whether the Saudis will 許容する this, assuming they are not one of those cheating 同様に.
The other 危険 to the 取引，協定 is the 返答 of the 40 パーセント of world oil 生産（高） not 支配する to the 協定, with the 重要な swing 生産者s 存在 U.S. shale drillers.
An oil price of の近くに to $60 a バーレル／樽 brings them 支援する into play, as can be seen by the rising 演習ing 装備する count in the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs, now in its seventh month of 拡大.
The 解除するing of the 禁止（する） on 天然のまま 輸出（する）s from the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs has also opened the way for 増加するd 生産（高） to make its way to Asian 精油業者s, something that already appears to be happening.
Oil major BP is shipping almost 3 million バーレル／樽s of U.S. 天然のまま to Asia, Reuters 報告（する）／憶測d on Dec. 7. Other 仲買人s are also showing 利益／興味 in developing new 大勝するs, moves that may 土台を崩す the efficacy of the 石油輸出国機構/非，不，無-石油輸出国機構 取引，協定.
It's doubtful that U.S. shale 生産（高） can rise enough to 相殺する the whole 1.8 million bpd 削減（する）s 発表するd by 石油輸出国機構 and its 同盟（する）s, but other 生産者s may also be able to take advantage of rising prices, such as Canada, Brazil and Norway.
Where the oil price 最終的に 長，率いるs in the first half of next year will be decided by whether the 活動／戦闘s of 石油輸出国機構 and its 同盟（する）s match their words, and how can the other 生産者s 反対する-punch.
(Editing by Richard Pullin)
