Commentary: The dangers of putting Putin under 圧力
By Peter Apps
June 22 (Reuters) - How will Vladimir Putin 答える／応じる to the growing challenges against him? The ロシアの 大統領，／社長, who turns 65 in October, might presently look unassailable - but 持続するing that 支配する will get harder every year.
Compared to British 総理大臣 Theresa May or U.S. 大統領 Donald Trump, the ロシアの 大統領，／社長 直面するs scant 内部の 対立. 最近の anti-汚職 抗議するs, however, 供給するd him a 思い出の品 that no leader can remain in 力／強力にする forever.
Putin will almost certainly 勝利，勝つ the March 大統領の 選挙s. His 投票 ratings remain high, and ロシアのs have little appetite for the 大混乱 that his 落ちる might bring.
But that doesn´t mean there are no 競争相手s waiting for him to つまずく.
Most obvious for now is 対立 進歩 Party leader Alexei Navalny, whose success in getting thousands of デモ参加者／実演宣伝者s out on the streets 関心s Putin and those around him. ロシアの 公式の／役人s have tried to slow Navalny 負かす／撃墜する by bringing 多重の 合法的な challenges against his 権利 to run for 大統領，／社長; he was 宣告，判決d to a 30-day 刑務所，拘置所 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 after 存在 逮捕（する）d ahead of this month´s 抗議するs.
If history is any guide, Navalny´s path to any place on a 大統領の 投票（する） could get even tougher. The anti-汚職 行動主義者 lost much of his eyesight after unknown 加害者s threw a caustic liquid in his 直面する earlier this year. He must be painfully aware that many Putin critics have died in 怪しげな circumstances in 最近の years. Others have ended up in 刑務所，拘置所 or 追放する.
For now, the 41-year-old Navalny might prefer to wait. Putin has no natural 相続人 and even if he 粘着するs to office in the manner of Zimbabwe´s 93-year-old Robert Mugabe, the ロシアの leader´s 力／強力にする will 病弱な with age.
Mugabe has 生き残るd in part because few have been willing to 危険 a 対決 when they felt they could let nature take its course. He has struck 取引，協定s with 上級の 支持者s and 対立 leaders, all of whom have been positioning themselves for years to move 急速な／放蕩な once he is gone.
It´s an example ますます discussed amongst ロシアのs and Russia-選挙立会人s. Such a long-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 戦略 could work for Navalny. That could also be the 計画（する） of 51-year-old 総理大臣 Dmitry Medvedev, who held the 大統領／総裁などの地位 while Putin sat it out under Russia´s 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語-限界 法律s to re-qualify for another 大統領の run.
Once regarded 純粋に as a 権力のない Putin prot?g?, Medvedev is now seen as having his own powerbase amongst modernizers and 穏健なs. Many of those around Putin may 借りがある their 力／強力にする and wealth to him, but few are 簡単に slavish acolytes. They all have their 協議事項s - and those who are younger will need to 生き残る after the ロシアの leader has gone.
Even without an 即座の 脅し, Putin must be feeling the 圧力. And history shows that a Putin under 圧力 is more likely to be ruthless about striking out at real and imagined enemies both at home and abroad.
That danger might be 悪化させるd by the 予測できなく of the Trump 行政 and the growing number of 状況／情勢s where U.S. and 連合した 軍隊s are in ますます の近くに proximity to those of Russia. Monday´s 狙撃 負かす／撃墜する of a Syrian jet by the U.S. 海軍, for example, has その上の ratcheted up 緊張s between Moscow and Washington. A の近くに 空中の 対決 between ロシアの and U.S. 航空機 over the Baltic on Monday is 広範囲にわたって 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑うd to have been a 返答 to Washington´s 活動／戦闘s over Syria.
For now, most Russia 選挙立会人s believe Putin´s 優先 has been to reassert Russia as a geopolitical heavyweight that can pitch itself in the same league as countries like the U.S. and 中国. 最終的に, though, he is likely to put 持続するing 国内の 力／強力にする ahead of international stature.
Until the 反乱s of the "Arab Spring," which Moscow 非難するd ひどく - although not 排他的に - on the Obama 行政, Putin and the wider ロシアの 設立 appeared mostly happy to work within the Western-built, globalized and 大部分は democratic world. Certainly, they took advantage of its 貿易（する） and banking 適切な時期s to 濃厚にする themselves and 上げる Russia´s 明言する／公表する coffers with energy sales and 商売／仕事 取引，協定s.
Now Moscow has 転換d 焦点（を合わせる） to 動揺させるing and delegitimizing the 会・原則s of the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs and Europe. U.S. and European 許可／制裁s に引き続いて Russia´s 併合 of Crimea may have 加速するd this 傾向 - although most 分析家s believe Putin and those around him still want to 持続する at least some 接近 to Western 財政上の systems.
Moscow´s 申し立てられた／疑わしい 干渉，妨害 in 選挙s in the U.S., フラン and どこかよそで are 明確に part of this 動揺させるing 傾向. So is the ロシアの 介入 in Syria, designed not just to 支え（る） up Bashar al-Assad but show the 残り／休憩（する） of the world - 含むing ロシアのs - of the dangers when people rise against 当局.
If Putin feels 脅すd at home, he might also be tempted to 選ぶ more fights outside of Russia´s 国境s.
There is no 不足 of places that could happen. Western countries worry about direct 軍の or covert 活動／戦闘 against the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, 以前は part of the Soviet Union but now members of 北大西洋条約機構. Countries like ウクライナ共和国 and Georgia, which lean West but 欠如（する） 北大西洋条約機構 会員の地位, may be even more 攻撃を受けやすい.
This year has already seen posturing by Russia and 北大西洋条約機構 in the Baltic, with more large 軍の 演習s planned by both for this year. Some Western 公式の／役人s 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑う Moscow may choose to leave 軍隊／機動隊s in its 同盟（する） Belarus after its large "Zapad" 演習s in September. That would essentially leave the country under ロシアの 軍の 支配, the Baltic 明言する／公表するs more encircled and the 残り／休憩（する） of Europe 深く，強烈に unsettled. . (報告（する）／憶測ing by Peter Apps)
