Nigerian 対立 to 選ぶ 大統領の 候補者 as northwest takes centre 行う／開催する／段階
By Alexis Akwagyiram
ABUJA, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Nigeria's main 野党, which this 週末 selects its 候補者 to challenge 大統領 Muhammadu Buhari in an 選挙 in February, is 目的（とする）ing to make his northwestern 力／強力にする base a main battleground in the contest.
To do so, however, it needs to 安全な・保証する the 支援 of powerful 人物／姿／数字s in the northwest and to 確実にする the party does not fracture over its choice of 候補者, 分析家s said.
Many of the 13 候補者s for the People's Democratic Party (PDP) 指名／任命 defected from Buhari's 判決，裁定 All 進歩／革新的なs 議会 (APC) in 最近の months.
Seven have 関係 with 明言する／公表するs in the northwest, mostly as 現在の or past 知事s, 支えるing the party in a 伝統的な Buhari 要塞／本拠地.
At 火刑／賭ける in the 予備選挙 is the chance to 直面する him in a 大統領の contest which will 決定する who 支配（する）／統制するs a country that is Africa's 最高の，を越す oil 生産者, has one of the continent's biggest economies, and plays a 重要な 役割 in 地域の wars against Islamist 謀反のs.
The northwest, the most 密集して 居住させるd 地域 in the country of 190 million people, is 形態／調整ing up to take centre 行う／開催する／段階 in the race.
"In past 選挙s, Buhari got almost half of his 投票（する） from the northwest and the 地域 will be even more important this time," said Malte Liewerscheidt, West Africa 分析家 at Teneo 知能.
"A lot of people from other 地域s who 投票（する）d for Buhari first-time in 2015 are likely to turn their 支援する on him."
The 地域 is 伝統的に the centre of the イスラム教徒 投票者 base as Nigeria's three most 上級の Islamic leaders - the 暴君 of Sokoto, the 首長 of Kano and the 首長 of Gwando - are based there.
Buhari, a northern イスラム教徒, who won the 2015 選挙 at the fourth 試みる／企てる, took 1.9 million 投票（する）s in Kano 明言する／公表する compared to 215,779 安全な・保証するd by Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian southerner.
An 非公式の 協定 目的（とする）d at 回転／交替ing 力／強力にする between the おもに Mu わずかな／ほっそりした north and mostly Christian south, means a northern 候補者 is likely to be selected by the 対立.
The northerners in the 最初の／主要な contest 含む the 知事 of northwestern Sokoto 明言する／公表する Aminu Tambuwal, former Kano 知事 Ibrahim Shekarau, ex-Kaduna 知事 Ahmed Makarfi, and former Sokoto 知事 Attahiru Bafarawa.
"Assuming that the PDP remains 部隊d, this could put them 支援する on the 地図／計画する in the northwest, a 地域 where the party 得点する／非難する／２０d on 普通の／平均（する） 単に 16 パーセント in 2015," Teneo's Liewerscheidt said.
PDP 国家の publicity 長官 Kola Ologbondiyan 解任するd the suggestion that 支持者s of 不成功の 候補者s may not 支援する the person selected.
"We are all going to work together to 確実にする the victory of our 候補者," he said.
The dent in Buhari's 人気 can 大部分は be せいにするd to the economy.
Nigeria entered its first 後退，不況 in 25 years in 2016, おもに 原因（となる）d by lower oil prices and attacks in the Niger Delta 天然のまま 生産／産物 地域.
It 現れるd from 後退，不況 早期に last year but growth remains 不振の and インフレーション has remained high, above the central bank's 選び出す／独身 digit 的 範囲.
The 衝撃 of the 経済的な 下降 of 最近の years is, for some on the streets of the north's 商業の 中心 Kano, a 推論する／理由 to 拒絶する Buhari.
"Everything went 支援する under Buhari, there's no 進歩 or 開発," said Yusuf Yakubu, who left Buhari's party in June 2017 and joined the PDP.
"If you go to the market, the 仲買人s will tell you the economy has 崩壊（する）d under this 行政. There is really nothing Kano can 停止する and say 'This is how we've 利益d under Buhari'," he said.
But many others on the streets of the city felt that the 大統領，／社長, who is from the 隣人ing 明言する／公表する of Katsina, should be given a second 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語.
"Perhaps we all would not be in Kano 明言する／公表する by now if not for his 行政. Maybe, we would have all been chased out of this 明言する／公表する by Boko Haram," said Abdullmuminu Gezewa, 賞賛するing the 政府's 安全 記録，記録的な／記録する. (付加 報告（する）／憶測ing by Paul Carsten and Desmond Mboh in Kano, Felix Onuah in Abuja; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
