GLOBAL ECONOMY-High noon in Brussels: Italy 準備するs for 予算 対決
By Balazs Koranyi
FRANKFURT, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's 政策 会合 will be relegated to a sideshow next week as the 口論する人 over Italy's 予算 takes the main 行う／開催する／段階.
The Italian 政府 is looking to 上げる spending in the hope of 工学 faster 経済成長.
But its 解決する to 違反 European Union 会計の 支配するs will be put to the 実験（する） as it 直面するs a rebuke from the （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限, downgrades by credit 率ing 機関s, and a market selloff that may negate the very 刺激 it has hoped for.
Italy has until Monday to explain to the （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限 its 違反 of 支配するs and 直面するs the 拒絶 of its 予算, which may 結局 lead to 許可／制裁s. Neither 味方する has any incentive to 支援する 負かす／撃墜する for now.
For the Rome 政府, standing up to Brussels could translate into 投票（する）s, while for the （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限, giving in would create a dangerous precedent that could 動揺させる the euro zone, 特に since the 圏 has already been lenient with Italy's 過度の spending.
The 行き詰まる is 高くつく／犠牲の大きい. Italian 社債 産する／生じるs 攻撃する，衝突する their highest level since 早期に 2014 on Friday and the 賞与金 投資家s 需要・要求する in comparison to German 負債 is at a five and a half year high.
This could 攻撃する，衝突する the economy as Italy sits on a 負債 pile 価値（がある） 130 パーセント of GDP, the second-highest 負債 割合 in Europe after Greece, which has just 出口d a bailout.
"The European 過程 might not be central," Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a 公式文書，認める to （弁護士の）依頼人s.
"最終的に it is the market 軍隊s, 潜在的に 誘発する／引き起こすd by the 率ing 機関s, and the reaction of the real economy to the 強化するing in 財政上の 条件s, which will 調印（する） the 運命／宿命 of the 現在の 実験 in 会計の 緩和するing in Italy."
Moody's and 基準 and Poor's are both 推定する／予想するd to review their Italian ratings before the month's end and downgrades to one level above junk are 推定する／予想するd by many.
While much of this is already 定価つきの in, any commentary that would raise the prospect of a 削減（する） to 'junk' could 誘発する／引き起こす a sell off as it would carry 関わりあい／含蓄s from a loss off 接近 to central bank 施設s to 除外 from 投資家 大臣の地位s.
Yet even these 明らかな 危険s are ありそうもない now to 軍隊 the 政府 to 支援する 負かす／撃墜する and その上の escalation is likely before a 妥協 is 設立する.
"So long as 財政上の market 圧力s remain manageable, we find it 合理的な／理性的な for the 政府 to stick to its 戦略 of 持続するing 緊張s with EU 会・原則s, given that it continues to 支払う／賃金 off ーに関して／ーの点でs of 人気," Barclays 追加するd.
Commerzbank said an 結局の 解答 may be to 財政／金融 more Italian spending from underutilised 構造上の 基金s instead of 直接／まっすぐに 重荷（を負わせる）ing the 予算.
ECB
Italy is also 推定する／予想するd to be a 最高の，を越す item for the ECB, which is all but 確かな to keep 政策 on 持つ／拘留する on Thursday and likely put off discussion about its reinvestment 政策 until December.
Having already made （疑いを）晴らす that Italy's 政府 is 損失ing 商売／仕事s and 世帯s, ECB 長，指導者 Mario Draghi is 推定する／予想するd to repeat that no help is coming if 投資家s start ダンピング Italian 資産s 一団となって／一緒に.
Italian 公式の／役人s have 示唆するd the ECB should use its 2.6 一兆 euro 社債 購入（する）s 計画／陰謀, 予定 to end in December, to support stabilise markets.
"It seems that the message needs to be made loud (er) and （疑いを）晴らす (er) that quantitative 緩和 is part of the 通貨の 政策 枠組み and cannot be used to help individual 国家の 政府s," BAML said.
The ECB 的s an インフレーション 率 just below 2 パーセント and has 拒絶するd the idea of going beyond this 委任統治（領）, 特に to help one particular euro area country over another.
Yet Italy's difficulties could also （一定の）期間 trouble for the entire 圏, which may 結局 証明する too difficult to ignore.
A loss of 信用／信任 could spread and drag growth, 軍隊ing the ECB to 持続する 刺激 longer than it hoped. With much of its firepower already exhausted fr om years of support, it has 事実上 no 範囲 to 延長する its 社債 購入（する） 計画／陰謀. (報告（する）／憶測ing by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
