GRAPHIC-Data 扶養家族? Five questions for the ECB
By Dhara Ranasinghe and Ritvik Carvalho
LONDON, Jan 21 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank 持つ／拘留するs its first 会合 of the year on Thursday as 関心 grows about weak 経済成長 at home and 危険s abroad from 全世界の 貿易（する） 緊張s and Brexit.
Having ended its 刺激 計画／陰謀 in December, ECB 長，指導者 Mario Draghi is likely to be 圧力（をかける）d on how the central bank will 演説（する）／住所 その上の 経済的な 証拠不十分.
Here are some of the 重要な questions on the レーダ for markets.
1. Will the ECB change its 査定／評価 of the 危険s 直面するing the economy?
A string of disappointing data, 顕著に from powerhouse economy Germany, 示唆するs a slowing of growth 勢い is perhaps deeper than 心配するd.
Draghi said last week the 減産／沈滞 could last longer than 推定する／予想するd and that the economy still needed support. But he 追加するd that the 圏 was not 長，率いるing for a 後退，不況.
In December, the ECB tweaked its 声明 to 反映する 増加するd 経済的な worries but kept a 言及／関連 to balanced 危険s. 経済学者s 推定する／予想する that 言い回し to remain in place this week and 追加する that a 転換 to say the balance of 危険s to growth points 負かす／撃墜する is more likely in March, when the next 始める，決める of 経済的な 予測（する）s are 予定.
While some argue that the balance of 危険 査定／評価 could be downgraded, if this was done, markets would look for a 政策 返答 and 非，不，無 will come. So, the argument against changing the 査定／評価 is to keep 期待s muted.
For an interactive 見解／翻訳／版 of the chart below, click here https://tmsnrt.rs/2HmeskS.
2. What about the 指導／手引 that 率s will stay on 持つ／拘留する through the summer. Could that change?
No 即座の change is 推定する／予想するd this week, but the 率 指導／手引 is 明確に in 焦点（を合わせる） given weak data and 関心 about the 衝撃 of 開発s outside the 圏 such as a Chinese 減産／沈滞 and Brexit. A 政府 shutdown could also 傷つける the U.S. economy, 追加するing to 全世界の growth worries.
Since the ECB last met, markets have 再評価するd the 率s 見通し for major central banks. Bets on U.S. 率 引き上げ（る）s this year have been 定価つきの out.
Euro zone money market pricing 示唆するs 投資家s do not 推定する／予想する the ECB to 解除する 率s until 井戸／弁護士席 into 2020. In December, a 10 bps 引き上げ（る） this year was 心配するd.
経済学者s have also 転換d their 見解（をとる）s: ABN AMRO believes the ECB will signal that 率s will be left on 持つ／拘留する through 2019 by the June 会合. HSBC does not 推定する／予想する any change in the ECB's deposit 率 until at least the end of 2020.
3. When does the ECB 推定する／予想する インフレーション to move higher?
緩和 インフレーション 複雑にするs the ECB's 率-引き上げ（る） 計画（する）. インフレーション in the 圏 緩和するd more than 推定する／予想するd in December to 1.6 パーセント, moving away from the ECB's just-under 2-パーセント 的.
Some 慰安 for the ECB, and perhaps something Draghi may 焦点（を合わせる） on if questioned about インフレーション, is the 選ぶ-up in underlying price 圧力s as 行う growth 増加するs.
A 下落する in euro zone インフレーション and growth was 心配するd so it is not enough to unravel 期待s of a 率 引き上げ（る）, Sabine Lautenschlaeger, the most 目だつ 強硬派 on the ECB (n)役員／(a)執行力のある Board, said in an interview last week.
4. Has the weak data encouraged the ECB to start discussing new multi-year 貸付金s to banks?
Minutes from the ECB's last 会合 showed policymakers are likely to 審議 new multi-year 貸付金s to banks, a potent 刺激 道具, in coming months as they navigate a "壊れやすい and fluid" 全世界の 状況.
投資家s are keen for 詳細（に述べる）s on what a new 始める，決める of 貸付金s to banks may look like. That means a question on new bank 貸付金s may come up at the 圧力（をかける） 会議／協議会 even if 分析家s say it's still 早期に days for the ECB to give any 詳細（に述べる）s.
The multi-year 貸付金s 注入する liquidity into the 財政上の system by giving incentives to 商業の banks to lend to companies and 消費者s. The previous four-year TLTROs 満了する／死ぬ in 中央の-2020 and 貸す人s will need to start deciding about a year before their 成熟 on how to 取って代わる them.
5. Is the ECB 用意が出来ている for a no-取引，協定 Brexit?
Britain's March 29 最終期限 for leaving the European Union is 急速な／放蕩な approaching, but 総理大臣 Theresa May's 出口 取引，協定 has just 苦しむd a resounding 敗北・負かす in 議会.
While a high degree of 不確定 remains, 関心s about the UK leaving the EU without a 取引，協定 have 緩和するd.
危険 逆転s in the British 続けざまに猛撃する 示唆する 通貨 markets are いっそう少なく worried about prospects of a no-取引，協定 Brexit.
While the popular market 計器, which shows the 割合 of calls to puts on a particular 通貨, still 最高潮の場面s 警告を与える, it has 回復するd from the extreme bearishness on the 続けざまに猛撃する in November.
The 財政上の 部門 is 用意が出来ている to 対処する with any fallout from a no-取引，協定 Brexit, the ECB's Francois Villeroy de Galhau said last week.
"Draghi may be asked about what the ECB would do in the event of a no 取引，協定," said Frederik Ducrozet, a strategist at Pictet Wealth 管理／経営 in Geneva.
"...The path of least 抵抗 would be to use the 今後 指導／手引 to not 引き上げ（る） 率s this year at the 最小限."
(報告（する）／憶測ing by Dhara Ranasinghe, Graphics by Ritvik Carvalho; 付加 報告（する）／憶測ing by Saikat Chatterjee; editing by John Stonestreet)
