ANALYSIS-Dollar 栄冠を与える 損なわれていない as central banks emulate Fed 強化するing pause
By Tommy Wilkes and Ritvik Carvalho
LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - It was supposed to be the start of a dollar 下降. Instead, 投資家s are 規模ing 支援する those bets as a dovish 転換 by the 連邦の Reserve is emulated by central banks 世界的な - keeping 損なわれていない the 米国紙幣's 利益／興味 率 賞与金 over other 通貨s.
The dollar 伸び（る）d 4.4 パーセント in 2018 - its best year since 2015 - as strong 経済成長 許すd the Fed to raise 率s 繰り返して, even as most other developed economies struggled with 女性 勢い.
仲買人s began in late 2018 to bet the dollar was 長，率いるing for a 落ちる from 18-month highs まっただ中に 調印するs the Fed was 近づくing the end of its three-year long 政策 強化するing cycle. Many reckoned it would stop 縮むing its balance sheet 同様に.
Other central banks, from the European Central Bank to Australia, were primed to kick off 率 rises.
But after 落ちるing in December and January, the dollar has 回復するd, and is up 1 パーセント so far in February. Against some 通貨s such as the Australian dollar, it has jumped more than 2 パーセント.
The 推論する／理由? 経済的な 勢い looks worse どこかよそで, 軍隊ing policymakers to 溝へはまらせる／不時着する, 延期する or 軟化する 政策 強化するing 計画（する）s.
So even though the Fed 確認するd its dovish 転換 this week in the minutes from its last 会合, it looks like the dollar will continue to enjoy a 産する／生じる advantage over 競争相手s.
"The dollar's resilience this year has come as a surprise to some," BlackRock 投資 strategist Richard Turnill said.
"Yet the same factors keeping the Fed on 持つ／拘留する - slowing 全世界の growth and 強化するing 財政上の 条件s - are 押し進めるing other central banks toward a more dovish 姿勢."
DOLLAR SUPPORT
Take for instance the European Central Bank. Bets on a 2019 率 rise have been 削除するd 権利 支援する and many reckon the ECB is 始める，決める to kick off a new 刺激 一連の会議、交渉／完成する 経由で cheap bank 貸付金s.
Japan said it could 注入する more 刺激 i f 要求するd, while Australia and Sweden signalled they could rethink planned 率 rises.
JP Morgan 資産 管理／経営's 通貨 長，指導者 投資 officer, Roger Hallam, 公式文書，認めるs the euro is 広範囲にわたって 予測（する） to 高く評価する／（相場などが）上がる in 2019 に向かって $1.20 from $1.13 現在／一般に. But the 貿易（する） 減産／沈滞 and 調印するs of above-傾向 U.S. 経済成長 could 妨害する the 選び出す／独身 通貨, he said.
Crucially, the market may also need to adjust その上の to a more dovish ECB, Hallam said, 追加するing that "親族 利益／興味 率 differentials are now more likely the move in the U.S. dollar's favour in the coming months."
Even if U.S. 利益／興味 率s fail to rise その上の, they compare favourably with sub-無 率s in the euro zone, Japan, Scandinavia and Switzerland. Australian 利益／興味 率s stand at 1.5 パーセント.
The dollar has 弱めるd this year against 現れるing markets, where bigger 産する／生じるs are 誘惑するing 投資家s, but there are 調印するs that the 率 引き上げ（る）ing cycle in 発展途上国s has come to a 停止（させる） too. India this month 削減（する） 率s and is 予測（する） to 削減（する） again in April.
As for 全世界の liquidity, the 集団の／共同の balance sheets of the Fed, ECB and the 日本銀行 shrank in late-2018 for the first time since 2015.
While that was おもに 負かす／撃墜する to the Fed, the shrinkage is 予報するd to move slower from here -- the U.S. central bank this week 確認するd it would soon 発表する 計画（する）s to stop 減ずるing the size of its balance sheet.
Steve Donze, 上級の 大型の strategist at Pictet 資産 管理／経営, 予測（する）s the Fed shrinkage will 結論する at end-2019 with the balance sheet at $3.75 一兆 - and then growing in line with GDP.
Minutes from the 最新の Fed 会合 示唆する the central bank may not be as dovish as markets believe, however. 分裂（する） 見解（をとる）s の中で Fed policymakers 示唆する the central bank may not yet have ended its three-year （選挙などの）運動をする to raise 率s, but has 単に put it on an 延長するd pause.
"The market has gotten ahead of itself in how much dovishness we can 推定する／予想する from the Fed. The market wil l have to 訂正する itself and that should 供給する some support for the dollar," said Andreas Koenig, 全世界の FX 長，率いる at Amundi 資産 管理／経営, Europe's largest 基金 経営者／支配人.
投資家s, however, are not 予報するing 抱擁する 伸び（る）s from here - on a 貿易（する）-負わせるd basis the dollar's real 効果的な 交流 率 is already above 20-year 普通の／平均（する）s, 潜在的に 限界ing その上の upside.
相場師s, 一方／合間, have pared 支援する their dollar positions but they remain 逮捕する long the 米国紙幣 by a large 利ざや.
(Editing by Sujata Rao and Toby Chopra)
