After Tripoli 強襲，強姦, Libya's next 戦う／戦い could be over banks
By Ulf Laessing
TRIPOLI, April 25 (Reuters) - Eastern Libya 指揮官 Khalifa Haftar has thrown much of his 軍の 軍隊s into attacking Tripoli, but the 結果 of the 不快な／攻撃 could be 決定するd by a separate 戦う／戦い -- to keep open the 平行の 財政／金融 system that 基金s his 兵士s.
Mobilising Libya's biggest 軍の （選挙などの）運動をする since the 2011 倒す of Muammar Gaddafi, Haftar has 前進するd on the U.N.-支援するd 行政 in the 資本／首都 from a bastion in the east, where he has a 平行の 政府 and central bank 支店.
The general has 基金d his eastern 明言する／公表する with a mix of 非公式の 社債s, Russia-printed cash and deposits from eastern banks, 蓄積するing 負債 価値（がある） around 35 billion Libyan dinars ($25.18 billion) outside the 公式の／役人 banking system.
But 外交官s and banking sources say that those sources of support might be の近くにing, as the Tripoli-based central bank, which 支配（する）／統制するs the country's energy 歳入s, has taken steps to curtail the 操作／手術s of banks in the east.
Those banks have in 最近の months struggled to 会合，会う 最小限 deposit 必要物／必要条件s, which could give the Tripoli central bank 連合した to Tripoli 首相 Fayez al-Serraj the excuse to shut off 接近 to hard 通貨, they said.
"There is a ぼんやり現れるing banking 危機 that could 土台を崩す eastern 当局' ability to 基金 themselves in the 近づく 未来," said Claudia Gazzini, 上級の Libya 分析家 at International 危機 Group.
"The 危機 was already in the making before the war broke out."
Haftar has built up his Libyan 国家の Army (LNA) with the help of the 部隊d Arab 首長国s (UAE) and Egypt 供給（する）ing 激しい gear such ヘリコプターs, によれば U.N. 報告（する）／憶測s.
WELFARE STATE
But 湾 countries such as the UAE have preferred not to give cash 直接／まっすぐに to Haftar, 恐れるing it will 結局最後にはーなる 存在 used for the wrong 目的s, several 外交の sources told Reuters.
That has 軍隊d the septuagenarian leader to us e merchants to 輸入する 乗り物s and other gear, using hard 通貨 得るd from the Tripoli central bank and paid out by eastern 商業の banks 問題／発行するing letters of credit, 軍の sources said.
There is no public data on the costs of Haftar's war, but he has sent more than 1,000 軍隊／機動隊s west 加える support staff like drivers or medics, 軍の sources and 居住（者）s said.
燃料 is not a problem, costing just 0.15 dinars a litre, with 明言する／公表する oil 会社／堅い NOC serving the whole country.
But in its 試みる／企てる to 逮捕（する） Tripoli the LNA has used hundreds of 乗り物s, with 軍用車隊s going west 非，不，無-stop from Benghazi, carrying anything from 兵士s to 弾薬／武器 to food.
In 新規加入, every day two flights with ロシアの-made 輸送（する） 計画（する）s go from Benghazi to Jufrah in central Libya, his main base. 本気で 負傷させるd 兵士s are flown to Tunisia.
The 不快な／攻撃 has 立ち往生させるd, and so the LNA has 公約するd to move in yet more 軍隊／機動隊s.
Haftar's 財政／金融s 直面する another 可能性のある vulnerability.
In November, the 衆議院 連合した to Haftar 認可するd a 法律 to 始める，決める up a 軍の 投資 当局 which gives the LNA 支配（する）／統制する -- like in Egypt -- of parts of the economy 含むing 非軍事の activities such as 捨てる metal.
The 投資 乗り物's companies are 免除されたd from 税金s and 輸入関税, as part of a 福利事業 明言する／公表する 想像するd by Haftar, but they need banks to を取り引きする partners abroad and 拡大する their 商売／仕事s, 分析家s say.
"If the banks fail, Haftar's 福利事業 明言する／公表する will come under 圧力," said a Western 外交官.
SUPPORT NETWORK
機能（する）／行事ing banks are also needed for Haftar's 平行の 政府 to 支払う／賃金 salaries and serve an LNA support 網状組織, 分析家s say. The central bank in Tripoli covers some public salaries in eastern Libya but not LNA 兵士s 雇うd after 2014 when the country 分裂（する） into western and eastern 行政s.
The Tripoli central bank has already 削減（する） three eastern banks from Libya's electronic banking system to 抑制（する） th eir 操作／手術s. 貸す人s have still been able to get hard 通貨 経由で other banks but in a その上の step the Tripoli central bank might shut 接近 完全に, 外交官s and 商売／仕事 sources said.
The Tripoli central bank (CBL) has 公約するd to stay 中立の and but 外交官s say it is also helping Serraj, 認可するing his 計画（する）s to 配分する some 2 billion dinars for his own war 成果／努力.
CBL did not 答える／応じる to mailed questions.
There has been a banking 危機 building up all across Libya and 特に in the east, where three eastern banks have struggled to keep a 要求するd 20 パーセント of 顧客s' deposits at the Tripoli central bank: They have been 支払う／賃金ing out more hard 通貨 in 最近の months, but need to balance accounts.
"Their deposits with CBL have fallen short of their statutory 最小限 必要物／必要条件s," Husni Bey, a 目だつ 商売／仕事 leader and owner of HB group.
Data received by Reuters 確認するd his.
FEW OPTIONS
外交官s do not 推定する／予想する Tripoli central bank 知事 Sadiq al-Kabir to shut eastern banks 完全に as this would 提起する／ポーズをとる 危険s for western 貸す人s. The same banks operate in the west and east with money flows hard to differentiate.
But they 恐れる the longer the 衝突 lasts, the harder it will be to 統一する the central banks and 返す 負債.
The west has piled up 負債 of 68 billion dinars, bringing Libya's total 赤字 and public 負債 to 130 billion, 含むing 未払いの 明言する／公表する 義務s such as social 保険, said Bey.
The biggest worry の中で 外交官s is that Haftar, who surprised world 力／強力にするs with his 不快な／攻撃, might try selling 天然のまま from oilfields and ports, bypassing NOC.
"If the 不快な／攻撃 fails, Haftar might do this as he feels encouraged by (U.S. 大統領 Donald) Trump," said one Western 外交官.
On Friday, the White House said that Trump had told Haftar by phone he recognised his "重要な 役割 in fighting テロ行為 and 安全な・保証するing Libya's oil 資源s", a comment which has enraged his 対抗者s but 解雇する／砲火／射撃d up LN A 支持者s. ($1 = 1.3898 Libyan dinars) (付加 報告（する）／憶測ing by Ghaida Ghantous in Dubai; Editing by William Maclean)
