INSTANT VIEW 5-中国 Q2 GDP rises 6.2% y/y, slowest in at least 27 years
BEIJING, July 15 (Reuters) - 中国's second-４半期/4分の1 経済成長 slowed to its weakest pace in at least 27 years, in line with 期待s, as 需要・要求する at home and abroad 冷静な／正味のd in the 直面する of a bruising 貿易（する） war with the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs.
The economy grew 6.2% in the second ４半期/4分の1 from a year earlier, slower than 6.4% in the first ４半期/4分の1, the 国家の Bureau of 統計（学） said on Monday.
分析家s 投票d by Reuters had 推定する／予想するd the economy to have 拡大するd 6.2%, which would be the slowest pace since the first ４半期/4分の1 of 1992, the earliest 年４回の data on 記録，記録的な／記録する. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
KEY POINTS
* Q2 GDP +6.2% y/y (f'cast +6.2%, prev +6.4%)
* Q2 GDP +1.6% q/q (f'cast +1.5%, prev +1.4%)
* June 産業の 生産（高） +6.3% y/y (f'cast +5.2%, prev +5.0%)
* June 小売 sales +9.8% y/y (f'cast +8.3%, prev +8.6%)
* Jan-June 直す／買収する，八百長をするd 資産 投資 +5.8% y/y (f'cast +5.5%, Jan-May +5.6%)
* 中国 Jan-June 所有物／資産／財産 投資 +10.9% y/y
COMMENTARY: JULIAN EVANS-PRITCHARD, SENIOR CHINA ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS "A stronger end to the ４半期/4分の1 didn't 妨げる growth from slowing in Q2 and we see more 証拠不十分 on the horizon... We won't get a 詳細（に述べる）d 決裂／故障 of GDP until tomorrow. But the headline 決裂／故障 示唆するs that the 減産／沈滞 was driven by 産業 and construction, with growth in the service 部門 activity 持つ／拘留するing 安定した.
"The 月毎の data for June were better than 推定する／予想するd... But we are 懐疑的な of this 明らかな 回復 given broader 証拠 of 証拠不十分 in factory activity. Growth on our own 産業の 生産／産物 索引, based on the 生産（高） 容積／容量s of individual 製品s, slowed in June, from 3.2% y/y to 2.9%.
"Looking ahead, we 疑問 that the better-than-推定する／予想するd data for June will 示す the start of a turnaround. Even with 財政政策 turning more supportive again, we think that construction activity will come under 圧力 in th e coming ４半期/4分の1s as the 最近の にわか景気 in 所有物／資産／財産 開発 unwinds.
"連合させるd with 増加するing headwinds from US 関税s and 女性 全世界の growth, we 推定する／予想する this to 最高潮に達する in a その上の 減産／沈滞 in 経済成長 over the coming year."
FRANCES CHEUNG, HEAD OF MACRO STRATEGY, WESTPAC, SINGAPORE "The growth in 産業の 生産／産物 is 特に encouraging, given the assumed 消極的な 衝撃 from 貿易（する）.
"投資家s may be 規模ing 支援する 緩和 期待 upon today's data as 会計の 対策 appear to be working, 主要な to a 穏やかな upside bias to IRS.
"That said, we believe the PBoC will still be supportive of liquidity. 推定する／予想する 産する／生じるs to be stable and any 一時的な bearishness to be 表明するd 経由で 交換（する）s."
HO WOEI CHEN, ECONOMIST, UOB, SINGAPORE "Growth was in line with 期待s of a 減産／沈滞, as there was an escalation of 貿易（する） 緊張s, creating a difficult 貿易（する）ing 環境. However, the June numbers were not as bad as what most people had 推定する／予想するd. There was a 好転 in 産業の 生産／産物 and 小売 sales. If you look at the 季節的に adjusted on-４半期/4分の1 growth, there was also a 好転.
"For the 十分な year, we do still 推定する／予想する a 減産／沈滞 nonetheless. There is no 決意／決議 in sight for the U.S.-中国 貿易（する） 緊張s. Going 今後, the 減産／沈滞 in 貿易（する） will have an 衝撃 on 国内の 需要・要求する and growth will be at 6.2% in the second half.
"Quantitative 対策 will remain in place. Two-time RRR 削減（する）s are 推定する／予想するd for the second half, but 利益／興味 率 削減（する）s are ありそうもない at this point.
"There is still 会計の room at this point. If they need to, they can 削減（する） the 付加価値税 率s その上の. Also, the 政府 has room to 運動 組織／基盤／下部構造 spending." EDWARD MOYA, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, OANDA, NEW YORK "中国's 列 of 経済的な data shows the 減産／沈滞 remains 損なわれていない and markets should 推定する／予想する その上の 刺激 from the PBOC later this summer.
"The 貿易（する） war is having a 抱擁する 衝撃 on the Chinese economy, and with no end in sight as 貿易（する） 交渉s st ruggle for meaningful 進歩, we are probably not 近づく the 底（に届く） for 中国's economy.
"While the PBOC has already 配達するd 刺激 this year, markets are を待つing a bazooka of RRR 削減（する）s and 付加 対策 which will probably come if 貿易（する） 会談 崩壊（する）. If 会談 刻々と 進歩, we will still probably see the PBOC 配達する fresh 刺激 に引き続いて the Fed's 高度に 心配するd 率 削減（する） at the end of the month."
"Markets should not should not get worried for Asia unless the PBOC lets GDP 落ちる below 6.0%. The PBOC will probably 緩和する liquidity and 配達する a wide 範囲 of RRR 削減（する）s in the second half of the year to help 中国's economy." JIANWEI XU, SENIOR ECONOMIST, GREATER CHINA, NATIXIS, HONG KONG "The data is in line with our 期待s... The number, while not so bad, is still a 警告 for the Chinese 政府 because the 貿易（する） war is still ahead of us and we also see that the 全体にわたる 感情 is bad. We think 刺激 is on the way -- 組織／基盤／下部構造 投資 on the 会計の 味方する and also the PBOC will be laxer (with regards to) the 財政上の 環境."
STEVE COCHRANE, CHIEF APAC ECONOMIST, MOODY'S ANALYTICS, SINGAPORE "It sounds like if 小売 sales are up as strong as they are, the 国内の 味方する has 回復するd a bit based on 刺激. So, it all may be 一時的な, 特に if 産業の 生産／産物 is only around 5%.
"転換ing the reserve 必要物／必要条件 負かす／撃墜する would be an 平易な thing for the PBOC to do. The trick is to try to channel any 付加 liquidity に向かって small 企業s and the 私的な 部門 where they can do the most good. That may be harder said than done. I also think we are in a wait-and-see 方式 if the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs and 中国 will get 支援する together again.
"Our 最初の／主要な 仮定／引き受けること for the second half is that the 会談 will 再開する. If they don't, I would pull my growth 予測（する）s for the second half 負かす／撃墜する." AIDAN YAO, SENIOR ASIA EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIST, AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS, HONG KONG "There's a lot of talk about support for big item consumpt イオン but we 港／避難所't seen that coming through and there's been talk about RRR 削減（する）s and big 通貨の 刺激 and we 港／避難所't really seen any big bazooka 存在 put out.
"They are behaving a lot more 慎重に. We do 推定する／予想する more 対策 to be rolled out. They've certainly done a lot more (liquidity 管理／経営) over the last few weeks.
"If 押し進める comes to 押す they have more 範囲 to 削減（する） 税金s and 料金s... and they could fulfil market 憶測 of another 一連の会議、交渉／完成する of 自動車 補助金s to 上げる 消費.
"財政政策 is likely to be in the 運動ing seat and 通貨の 政策 will 行為／法令／行動する in a supportive 役割 in the coming months.
"Cutting the （判断の）基準 deposit and lending 率s -- the 見込み is very low. It's more possible (that) they 新たな展開 the market-oriented 率s -- cutting the 利益／興味 率s of all those liquidity 施設s also sends an important signal to the market."
BEN JARMAN, ECONOMIST, JPMORGAN CHASE, SYDNEY "These are 一般に stronger numbers than we had thought. We are seeing a 幅の広い upside surprise.
"政策 in 中国 is working under 強制s at the moment as they are trying to 達成する 多重の 客観的なs. They want to support growth 経由で 組織／基盤／下部構造 and 消費者 spending, but they are also careful not to re-点火（する） a 住宅 泡. So to that extent, it means the 圧力 is off in the 近づく 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 to do more on 政策."
BACKGROUND:
- 中国's economy has been slowing since last year as the 貿易（する） war with the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs took a （死傷者）数 on factory activity, 輸出（する）s and 国内の 需要・要求する, 示唆するing that a 洪水／多発 of 刺激 対策 - 含むing 税金 削減（する）s and easier lending 支配するs - have yet to have a 著名な 影響 on 全体にわたる growth.
- Washington はっきりと raised 関税s on $200 billion of Chinese goods in May, 増加するing the 緊張する on a struggling 製造業の 部門 and 脅すing to 鎮圧する already-thin 利益（をあげる） 利ざやs.
- Though both 味方するs agreed in late June to 再開する 交渉s, and Washington said it would 持つ／拘留する off on 付加 徴収するs, 存在するing 関税s remain in place.
- No time でっちあげる，人を罪に陥れる has been 始める，決める for the new 一連の会議、交渉／完成する of 貿易（する） 会談, and Beijing and Washington remain at 半端物s over 重要な 問題／発行するs.
- The 政府 has been leaning more on 会計の 刺激 to underpin growth this year, 発表するing 大規模な 税金 削減（する）s 価値（がある） nearly 2 一兆 yuan ($291 billion) and a 割当 of 2.15 一兆 yuan for special 社債 発行 by 地元の 政府s. - The People's Bank of 中国 (PBOC) has 削除するd banks' reserve 必要物／必要条件 割合 (RRR) six times since 早期に 2018 to turn around soft credit growth. It has also 注入するd large 量s of liquidity into the 財政上の system and guided short-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 利益／興味 率s lower.
- But the economy has been slow to 答える／応じる, and 投資家s 恐れる a longer and costlier 貿易（する） war between the world's two largest economies could 誘発する／引き起こす a 全世界の 後退，不況.
- Markets are 熱望して waiting to see whether the PBOC will follow 政策 moves by the U.S. 連邦の Reserve, which is 広範囲にわたって 推定する／予想するd to 削減（する） 率s at its 会合 at the end of this month.
- 中国's 経済成長 is 推定する／予想するd to 冷静な／正味の to 6.2% this year, a 29-year low, によれば a Reuters 投票. The economy grew 6.6% last year. (報告（する）／憶測ing by Asian bureaus Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
