Argentina central bank 直面するs peso 実験（する） ahead of October 選挙
By Walter Bianchi and Jorge Otaola
BUENOS AIRES, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Argentina's central bank must toe a 政治上 fraught line between supporting the peso without 爆破ing through the bank's reserves, as policymakers 捜し出す to 海難救助 the 通貨 ahead of October's 大統領の 選挙, 分析家s said on Friday.
The peso was in 解放する／自由な-落ちる for most of this week after a shock 予備選挙 result on Sunday, when 中心-left 大統領の 候補者 Alberto Fernandez trounced 中心-権利 大統領 Mauricio Macri.
The 規模 of Fernandez's victory 示唆するd he could 勝利，勝つ the 近づいている 投票（する） in the first 一連の会議、交渉／完成する, but 潜在的に be left as leader of a country that has very few foreign reserves left, raising the chances of a 負債 default.
On Friday afternoon, in a fresh 頭痛 for Argentine policymakers, Fitch downgraded Argentina's 君主 負債 率ing from "B" to "CCC," flagging an 増加するd 見込み of a default.
"One 戦略の element for the 政府 and the 対立 is how the 現在の reserves of the central bank are used," consultancy Fundacion Mediterranea said in a 公式文書，認める. "The 対立 does not want the 現在の 行政 to leave the central bank with very few reserves, and it is convenient for the 政府 that the 提案s 発表するd by the 対立 are reasonable for the markets."
The peso's 崩壊（する）, which comes まっただ中に growing 恐れるs of a 全世界の 後退，不況, 軍隊d the central bank to sell dollars and 強いる 私的な banks to 削減する their dollar holdings ーするために 供給する liquidity to the market. The new dollar holdings 支配する 抑えるのをやめるd about $400 million, 仲買人s said, and helped 安定させる the peso on Thursday and Friday.
Since Sunday's 投票（する）, the central bank has auctioned a total of $503 million.
The central bank, which is 名目上 独立した・無所属 but has long been 傾向がある to (n)役員／(a)執行力のある 干渉，妨害, has about $66 billion in reserves, of which about $20 billion are 解放する／自由な 資源s that can use d to 支払う／賃金 負債 and 安定させる the peso, によれば an Argentine 政府 公式の／役人.
In its 声明, Fitch said the central bank's 介入s had so far been modest, 許すing for more 積極的な 活動／戦闘 負かす／撃墜する the road if needed.
"にもかかわらず, the 最近の 通貨 run and 危険s of その上の 圧力 and volatility are detrimental for 君主 負債 sustainability, which had 以前 been predicated on 期待s of a real peso 評価," Fitch 警告するd, while also 最高潮の場面ing 危険s to growth and インフレーション.
The peso 強化するd 4.36% on Friday to 55 pesos per dollar, giving policymakers a bit of breathing room. But it ended the week 17.58% 女性, and it is 負かす／撃墜する almost a third against the 米国紙幣 so far in 2019.
In a 公式文書，認める, Citi said Macri will want the central bank to continue using reserves to defend the peso. A その上の 通貨 崩壊（する） could be the final nail in his re-選挙 chances.
"Fernandez is the big favorite to 勝利，勝つ the 選挙s. But with Macri and Fernandez still in （選挙などの）運動をする 方式, the 移行 will be difficult, with little incentive to 静める the markets," Citi said.
That leaves Fernandez in a 貯蔵所d, relying on a Macri-controlled central bank to 配達する him a country with both healthy reserves and a healthy 通貨. As such, some 分析家s 示唆するd he could 少なくなる his 依存 on the central bank by doing a better 職業 of communicating with 投資家s.
"The 初期の signals (from Fernandez) have all been worrisome with no 明らかな understanding of basic 経済的な 原則s through the 人民党員 （選挙などの）運動をする rhetoric and no sensitivity to the 最近の 財政上の 強調する／ストレス," Amherst Pierpont 安全s said in a 公式文書，認める.
In an 試みる／企てる to 海難救助 his re-選挙 企て，努力，提案 and 上げる Argentina's 後退，不況-乱打するd economy, Macri on Thursday froze 物品税s of 21% on basic foodstuffs until the end of the year. The 政府 概算の the 税金 凍結する will cost about 10 billion pesos ($174.2 million).
The 棚上げにするing of the 税金s was the boldest in a series o f 会計の 緩和するing 対策 totaling hundreds of millions of dollars that Macri has 明かすd since the 最初の／主要な 投票（する）. But it was an ぎこちない about-turn for a 大統領，／社長 who took office in 2015 公約するing to 削除する public 補助金s and 訂正する what he called years of 左派の（人） 経済的な mismanagement.
"The 対策 発表するd by the 政府 …に出席する to the 影響s and not the 原因（となる）s of the 経済的な 危機," Fernandez wrote on Twitter on Friday.
(報告（する）／憶測ing by Walter Bianchi and Jorge Otaola 令状ing by Gabriel Stargardter; Editing by Hugh Bronstein, Alistair Bell; Leslie Adler and Tom Brown)
