Not your father's Peronists: Why Macri flopped with young Argentines
By Cassandra 守備隊 and Marina Lammertyn
BUENOS AIRES, Aug 18 (Reuters) - For Luis Joaquin Caro, who was about 2 years old when Argentina last defaulted on its 負債 in 2001, casting his 投票（する） for left-leaning Peronist 候補者 Alberto Fernandez in the country's 最近の 予備選挙 was a no-brainer.
"During the Kirchner years, I lived very 井戸／弁護士席," he said, referring to what now seems like a bygone 時代 of his young life before four years of spending 削減（する）s and 緊縮 対策 under 大統領 Mauricio Macri.
"Today, it's not like that," said Caro, who is from a working-class part of Buenos 空気／公表するs 州. The 21-year-old said he had always seen former 大統領 Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and her late husband former 大統領 Nestor Kirchner - whose 連続した 条件 spanned 2003 to 2015 - as 支持する／優勝者s of the 労働者s.
Cristina Kirchner, a polarizing 人物／姿／数字 in Argentina, is the running mate of Fernandez, whose 圧勝 over Macri in the Aug. 11 最初の／主要な wrong-footed 世論調査員s and shocked 投資家s, who worry that Argentina may fail once again to 支払う／賃金 its 負債s if the left returns to 力／強力にする.
Argentine markets 急落（する），激減（する）d into a nosedive last week まっただ中に growing 恐れるs about a rerun of "Kirchnerismo," when Argentina had 通貨 支配（する）／統制するs and other interventionist 政策s.
Caro's 感情s are emblematic of a groundswell of support for Fernandez の中で younger 投票者s which, while not altogether 予期しない for 世論調査員s, shocked them in its magnitude.
Part of the challenge for 世論調査員s in Argentina was that young 投票者s, one of the demographics most 衝撃d by high 失業, are いっそう少なく likely to have a 従来の phone where canvassers can reach them - a factor also 特記する／引用するd by 投票ing 会社／堅いs in Britain and the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs after upsets in 最近の years.
For Caro and many other young 投票者s in Argentina, talk of the 苦痛 surrounding the 2001 危機 was （太陽，月の）食／失墜d by generous social 利益s and subsidie s under the Kirchners' that helped pluck their families from poverty after the 負債 default.
"The years of Kirchnerism that I lived during my childhood, I lived very 井戸／弁護士席 and maybe at that time, I did not realize it," said Lucila Servelli, 16, who 投票（する）d for the first time on Sunday, though 投票（する）ing is not compulsory for 16 to 18 year olds.
"But comparing it with now, many things have changed. Now, my family had to give up many things," said Servelli, who was not born when Argentina defaulted in 2001.
SOCIAL ISSUES
Young 投票者s have far いっそう少なく in ありふれた with Macri, whose 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 has 焦点（を合わせる）d on 解放する／自由な-market 改革（する）s by 刺激するing foreign 投資 and a 約束d 経済的な 回復 that failed to materialize, said political 分析家 Julio Burdman.
Macri's image is saddled with 憤慨 at high 失業, 特に の中で younger Argentines, he 追加するd.
To make 事柄s worse, salaries have eroded 意味ありげに. That is an extra sting for young 投票者s who are new to the 全労働人口 and feeling the pinch in their own pockets for the first time.
For others like 16-year-old Pilar Gil Navarro, the support for Kirchnerism is not just about 経済的なs. For her, the Kirchnerist 協議事項, which is more 自由主義の on social 問題／発行するs, is more in line with her values.
"One of the 問題／発行するs that I want to を取り引きする is 合法的な, 安全な and 解放する／自由な abortion," Navarro said. "In the Macri 政府, there is no 省 of Health, showing that a lot would have to happen to 合法化する abortion, which is something Fernandez said is important as a 事柄 of public health."
There is also a 確かな cachet 大（公）使館員d to Kirchnerismo, which counts high-profile actors and musicians の中で its 支持者s, 分析家s said.
Straight-laced Macri, whose 支持者s are mostly over 50, is 見解（をとる）d as a polar opposite from the Kirchnerismo image of 尋問 the status quo and 直面するing an 設立するd order.
"That, for a young person, is much more seductive than a 保守的な 協議事項," said Facundo Neja mkis, director of 投票ing 会社／堅い Opina Argentina.
PHONE GAP
Argentine millennials and "世代 Z" 投票者s are one of the demographics most 衝撃d by poverty and 失業, making them even いっそう少なく accessible to 世論調査員s who often reach 投票者s by phone and internet.
"One of the explanations, for why in almost all the 調査するs we failed to calculate the number of 投票（する）s between Fernandez and Macri, is 正確に not having been able to （悪事，秘密などを）発見する the 十分な number of young people. They don't answer the landline or because they just have 動きやすい phones for surfing the web," Nejamkis said.
Chris Jackson, U.S. 副／悪徳行為 大統領，／社長 for Ipsos Public 事件／事情／状勢s, said the 投票ing challenge takes on another dimension in Argentina because more 豊富な young people, who tend to be more accessible to phone and internet 研究, are more 攻撃するd に向かって Macri, 潜在的に skewing results.
"Phone use is unevenly 分配するd with landlines mostly 現在の in older, more 豊富な 全住民s, 独房 phones with younger 全住民s and いっそう少なく 豊富な 全住民s often not having any phone 接近," Jackson said.
(報告（する）／憶測ing by Cassandra 守備隊 and Marina Lammertyn; additonal 報告（する）／憶測ing by Horacio Soria and Agustin Marcarian Editing by Christian Plumb and Lisa Shumaker)
