中国's 厳重取締 on sugar 密輸するing leaves 全世界の 貯蔵 頭痛

By Maytaal Angel and Hallie Gu

LONDON/BEIJING, Oct 14 (Reuters) - A 厳重取締 on sugar 密輸するing into 中国 has left abundantly 供給(する)d markets in どこかよそで Asia struggling to 吸収する 超過 供給(する)s, 原因(となる)ing a wider 貯蔵 problem for 全世界の markets.

広大な tonnages of sugar 密輸するd into 中国 are believed to be produced mostly in India or Thailand and shipped to Myanmar, Laos or Vietnam before entering the Chinese 本土/大陸.

Those flows should more than halve this year to about 800,000 tonnes versus previous years when between 1.5-2.8 million tonnes would be 密輸するd in, によれば Wang Weidong, a sugar 分析家 based in southern 中国.

The 厳重取締 comes as Beijing 直面するs 圧力 from 産業 to 延長する hefty sugar 輸入する 関税s beyond 2020 and keep growth in licensed 輸入するs into 中国 歴史的に low.

"Chinese 当局 have really clamped 負かす/撃墜する on that (密輸するing 貿易(する)) this year. It's been shut 負かす/撃墜する for all 意図s and 目的s," said a source a London-based sugar 仲買人 with 関係 to Asia.

仲買人s and 分析家s in London and Beijing said they 推定する/予想する the clamp-負かす/撃墜する to continue.

International Sugar Organization (ISO) 人物/姿/数字s show the 全世界の market will 記録,記録的な/記録する a 赤字 of nearly 5 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season, meaning Asia will be able to 吸収する some of the 超過 resulting from 中国's 厳重取締.

However, に引き続いて two straight years of 黒字/過剰, the world market has some 95 million tonnes of 在庫/株 to 吸収する, the ISO said. That is 同等(の) to about six months 価値(がある) of 需要・要求する and is 不均衡な concentrated in Asia.

CHINA'S OFFICIAL IMPORTS SLOW

中国's 関税s should leave 公式の/役人 sugar 輸入するs into the country little changed this year at around 3 million tonnes, said Justin Liu, 中国-based 上級の sugar 分析家 at 大混乱 研究 学校/設ける.

The 欠如(する) of growth is unusual for a developing economy like 中国 which has a sugar 赤字, and shows Beijing is serio us about 保護するing its 国内の 産業.

"With the 国内の 生産(高) and 輸入するs under the 割当, 中国's 国内の 需要・要求する can be met. 供給(する) and 需要・要求する is balanced. If 中国 opens its market 完全に, the 国内の sugar 産業 will be doomed," said Weidong.

"Everyone is speaking from their own 利益/興味. Why produce so much when you can't 消費する it?" he 追加するd.

中国 in May 2017 攻撃する,衝突する major 輸出(する)ing nations with hefty 関税s on sugar 輸入するs, and started to 徴収する extra 関税s on out-of-割当 sugar 輸入するs from all origins in August last year.

The 対策, with the 密輸するing 厳重取締, have helped 押し進める Chinese white sugar prices up some 20 パーセント this year, after they sank to 近づく four-year lows last year.

THAI STOCKS BUILD

中国's 密輸するing 厳重取締 has also 与える/捧げるd to a build-up of 在庫/株 in Thailand, some of which made its way の上に 全世界の markets 中央の this year 経由で 記録,記録的な/記録する 配達/演説/出産s against ICE 未来s 契約s.

分析家s Green Pool said Thailand, the world's second largest 輸出業者, was sitting on nearly 7 million tonnes of 在庫/株 at end-September, 1.1 million tonnes more than last September and nearly 3 million more than the previous two years.

"In an ideal world they would have sold all their 在庫/株 by September," Green Pool 分析家 Tom McNeill said. A large 割合 of this 在庫/株 will have to be (疑いを)晴らすd by the end of the year to make way for the new 鎮圧する, he 追加するd.

産業 sources say Thai raw sugar is again 貿易(する)ing at a 賞与金 to the ICE 未来s, 示すing the 供給(する)-需要・要求する balance in Asia is starting to 強化する. But the 中国 厳重取締 still leaves Asian markets with unwelcome 超過 供給(する).

(付加 報告(する)/憶測ing by Patpicha Tanakasempipat; Editing by Veronica Brown and David Evans)

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