Coronavirus pandemic to 縮む German economy by 記録，記録的な／記録する 9.8% in Q2
By Michelle ツバメ and Joseph Nasr
BERLIN, April 8 (Reuters) - Germany's economy, Europe's largest, will probably 縮む by 9.8% in the second ４半期/4分の1, its biggest 拒絶する／低下する since 記録，記録的な／記録するs began in 1970, 予定 to 対策 課すd to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, the country's 主要な think 戦車／タンクs said on Wednesday.
That would be more than 二塁打 the 減少（する） seen in the first ４半期/4分の1 of 2009, during the 全世界の 財政上の 危機, the 経済的な 学校／設けるs said.
Germany has been in 事実上の lockdown for several weeks. Schools, shops, restaurants, sports 施設s and other 非，不，無-必須の 商売／仕事s have の近くにd and many companies have 停止（させる）d 生産／産物 to help slow the spread of the 病気.
"It is not ありそうもない that the 危機 will drag on longer than 推定する／予想するd and lead to 生産／産物 存在 frozen," said Timo Wollmershaeuser, an 経済学者 at the Ifo 学校／設ける, one of the think 戦車／タンクs 伴う／関わるd in producing the 報告（する）／憶測.
"In this シナリオ the 後退，不況 will be deeper and the 回復 will be slower. It will also be more difficult for the 政府 to 妨げる 商売／仕事s from going 破産者／倒産した," he 追加するd.
A 調査する of German companies by the DIHK 議会s of 産業 and 商業 showed that four in five 推定する／予想する their 歳入s will 縮む in 2020, and a ４半期/4分の1 said 商売／仕事 would 落ちる by more than 50%. About 18% said they are 脅すd with insolvency.
The 研究 学校／設けるs said the economy probably shrank by 1.9% from January to March. As Reuters 以前 報告（する）／憶測d, they said the German economy is likely to 縮む by 4.2% this year and grow by 5.8% next year.
"The coronavirus pandemic is 誘発する／引き起こすing a 深い 後退，不況 in Germany," said the 学校／設けるs, whose 予測（する）s form the basis of the 政府's own 経済的な 予測s. They said there was a 重要な downside 危険 to their 予測s.
The German 政府 is 予定 to 現在の its own 経済的な 予測（する）s on April 29.
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The ins titutes said an 前例のない 刺激 一括 of 750 billion euros ($814.73 billion) 認可するd last month to mitigate the 衝撃 of the pandemic would see Germany's 負債-to-生産（高） 割合 rise to 70% this year from around 60% before the 危機.
大蔵大臣 Olaf Scholz, who has 公約するd to 供給する 付加 刺激 for after the pandemic, has said that Germany's 負債 割合 could be as high as 75%.
"Germany's 明言する／公表する 財政／金融s are stable," Wollmershaeuser said, referring to years of balanced 予算s, when asked about the 危険 of the coronavirus pandemic 誘発するing another 負債 危機 in the euro zone.
"But this 危険 is there for other countries like Italy. Those countries need support. There is a big 危険 of a 負債 危機 in the euro zone. This should definitely be 避けるd."
Lockdown 対策 in Germany were 原因（となる）ing a 危機 of 消費, he said, but foreign 需要・要求する for German 産業の goods should rise once countries 緩和する their shutdowns.
The 学校／設けるs said the 失業率 in Germany was likely to 頂点（に達する） at 5.9%. They said the number of people on short-time work - a form of 明言する／公表する 援助（する） that 許すs 雇用者s to switch 従業員s to shorter working hours to keep them on the payroll - is likely to rise to 2.4 million.
That compares with some 1.4 million short-time 従業員s in the spring of 2009. ($1 = 0.9206 euros) (令状ing by Michelle ツバメ, Editing by Madeline 議会s, Larry King and Paul Simao)
