暗い／優うつな yuan 予測（する）s point to 集会 危険s
By Winni Zhou and Tom Westbrook
SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, June 5 (Reuters) - 全世界の banks are turning bearish on 中国's yuan and 推定する／予想する it could 違反 記録，記録的な／記録する lows in coming weeks, 提起する／ポーズをとるing a 脅し to the 楽観主義 that has lately 押し進めるd world 財政上の markets higher.
Growing 分割s between Beijing and Washington over 問題／発行するs from the 自治 of Hong Kong to the coronavirus 返答 and 進歩 配達するing the 段階 1 貿易（する） 取引，協定 have the 通貨 at its most volatile in months and under 圧力.
The yuan 攻撃する，衝突する a 記録，記録的な／記録する low against the dollar last week and, にもかかわらず a bounce, 分析家s are becoming ますます 用心深い of a sharp 落ちる in coming months, with consequences for 公正，普通株主権s and other Asian 通貨s.
"I am getting a bit 関心d about this," Nomura's 長，率いる of 全世界の FX 戦略, Craig Chan, told 投資家s during an online 会議 this week.
He said it was "a 事柄 of time" before the yuan 弱めるd past 7.2 per dollar, which is uncharted 領土, and said 中国 lagging 購入（する） 的s for U.S. goods 現在のd the prime 危険 for another 損失ing 落ちるing out over 貿易（する）.
"I can see the 誘発する／引き起こす for negativity that could 現実に flow through 全世界の markets," Chan said.
He is not alone. Even as the dollar has lately 苦しむd some of its steepest losses in months, 分析家s at Barclays, ANZ Bank, Goldman Sachs and others are becoming more 納得させるd it is likely to 伸び（る） on the yuan in the months ahead.
Goldman last week 削減（する） its three-month 予測（する） for the yuan from 7.15 per dollar to 7.25 per dollar. It 推定する／予想するs the yuan to 会社／堅い after that, but also tempered those 期待s.
The yuan has 回復するd from a 記録，記録的な／記録する low of 7.1966 per dollar in 沖合いの／海外の 貿易（する） and a 9-month low of 7.1766 onshore after U.S. 大統領 Donald Trump elected against 関税s in 返答 to 中国 強化するing its 支配する on Hong Kong.
But its 概略で 1.3 % bounce, which （機の）カム with a little help from the People's Bank of 中国's da ily 指導／手引, lagged a 6.6% jump in the 貿易（する）-極度の慎重さを要する Australian dollar over the same period.
HUGE UNCERTAINTY
A six-month check-in on the 貿易（する） 取引，協定 予定 by August is the most likely scene for a ゆらめく up, 分析家s say, because 中国 is seen 落ちるing behind a 的 of $36.5 billion in 農業の 購入（する）s this year. Nomura 見積（る）s it is on 跡をつける to buy only $13.3 billion.
To be sure, not everyone is 消極的な and nor are bearish 予報官s 予報するing 緊張s to be as destabilising as the 2019 貿易（する） war or the 2015-2016 Chinese 財政上の 炉心溶融.
In an 選挙 year, Trump also has little choice but to stick with the 貿易（する） 取引，協定 にもかかわらず his 怒り／怒る at Beijing over the coronavirus pandemic, people familiar with his 行政's 審議s say.
Even so, seasonal and other factors are 重さを計るing on the yuan, as 中央の-year （株主への）配当 支払い（額）s 予定 over coming months from Chinese companies and rising prices for 回復するing 商品／必需品s 運動 需要・要求する for dollars.
And the Sino-U.S. 安定 要求するd for a break higher in yuan seems like a 麻薬を吸う dream.
"論争s between the two countries now cover a 範囲 of 問題／発行するs which seem ありそうもない to be 解決するd soon," Goldman Sachs 分析家s said in a 公式文書，認める …を伴ってing their yuan 見通し 削減（する）s.
(報告（する）／憶測ing by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
