地位,任命する-Trump 時代 a 可能性, Europeans see no quick 直す/買収する,八百長をする to U.S. 関係

By Luke パン職人, Andreas Rinke and Philip Blenkinsop

LONDON/BERLIN/BRUSSELS, July 9 (Reuters) - If Donald Trump loses in November, it's no secret that most European policymakers will be happy to see his 支援する. But as they 想像する the 可能性 of a 地位,任命する-Trump 未来, many are wondering how quickly the trans-大西洋 同盟 can be 直す/買収する,八百長をするd.

にもかかわらず U.S. opinion 投票s showing Biden ahead, 公式の/役人s in 資本/首都s across Europe say they are making no 仮定/引き受けることs about the likely 結果 of the U.S. 選挙.

Having failed to 心配する Trump's first victory, "the German 政府 already 燃やすd its fingers," said J?rgen Hardt, 外務 広報担当者 for (ドイツなどの)首相/(大学の)学長 Angela Merkel's CDU party and an 専門家 on U.S.-German 関係. "I do not have the impression that the German 政府 is waiting for another 大統領,/社長 - and I would advise them not to do it."

Still, when they 許す themselves to look ahead to the prospect of a Biden 大統領/総裁などの地位, they don't やむを得ず see an instant 再開 of the easier Barack Obama years. Though トン and style would 転換 夜通し, 政策 実体 on 問題/発行するs from 中国 to Russia to 貿易(する) could take longer to 精密検査する.

"I don't 推定する/予想する that, if we have a new 大統領,/社長, everything will just 落ちる into place," said Reinhard Buetikofer, a 貿易(する) 専門家 for the Greens in the European 議会.

At best, if Biden 勝利,勝つs, Buetikofer sees a chance for "revisiting and 改革(する)ing multilateralism" after years of open U.S. 敵意 to 会・原則s from 北大西洋条約機構 and the EU to the World Health Organization and the World 貿易(する) Organization.

There are areas where 摩擦s created by Trump could disappear as soon as Trump does: on 気候 政策, for example, a 大統領 Biden is likely to jump straight 支援する into the Paris 気候 change (許可,名誉などを)与える that Trump やめる.

The WTO 貿易(する) 論争 機械装置 that has 崩壊(する)d because of a U.S. 拒否権 of the 任命 of 裁判官s could be put 支援する together quickly.

European countries that have prized Western まとまり in rebuffing ロシアの 前進するs in ウクライナ共和国 will no longer have to worry that the 大統領,/社長 of the 部隊d 明言する/公表するs will 招待する Vladimir Putin to a G7 首脳会議 without 協議するing them, as Trump did last month.

"We would review all of the 決定/判定勝ち(する)s that 大統領 Trump has taken," Antony Blinken, Biden's 上級の 助言者 on 外交政策, told Reuters, referring 特に to Trump's 脅し in 最近の weeks to 身を引く U.S. 軍隊/機動隊s from Germany.

IRAN, CHINA, TRADE

But there are also 問題/発行するs where a Biden 大統領/総裁などの地位 may not be able to 簡単に 選ぶ up where Obama left off.

On Iran, for example, Europe has spent the past three years trying to 海難救助 an Obama-時代 協定 to 解除する 許可/制裁s in return for 抑制(する)s on Tehran's 核の programme. But so much has happened since Trump abandoned the 協定/条約 in 2018, and so much has unravelled, it may be too late to save it.

And there are other 問題/発行するs where Europe and the 部隊d 明言する/公表するs have real differences that are not going to be simple to 解決する, even with a friendlier 人物/姿/数字 in the White House.

On 中国, Biden's team wants to take a closer look at the 安全 関わりあい/含蓄s of Beijing's 投資 in European 組織/基盤/下部構造 such as ports, said Julianne Smith, a former Obama-時代 国家の 安全 公式の/役人 advising Biden's (選挙などの)運動をする.

Biden is not 推定する/予想するd to be any happier than Trump was about European countries' 計画(する)s to 会社にする/組み込む 科学(工学)技術 from 中国's Huawei, the world's biggest telecoms 器具/備品 製造者, in their next 世代 動きやすい phone 網状組織s.

On 貿易(する), while Biden is not likely to be as 誘発する/引き起こす happy as Trump has been to 課す 関税s on 同盟(する)s, there are serious 論争s. Germany, for example, wants to help the 輸出(する)s of its big car 製造業者s.

With the 選挙s months away, European countries are still working on their own 問題/発行するs with the U.S. 行政.

In the Netherlands, that means discussing whether Dutch chipmaker ASML should have a license to 輸出(する) 科学(工学)技術 to 中国. In フラン, the 焦点(を合わせる) is on 計画(する)s to 税金 big, mostly American tech companies, after Washington scuppered 全世界の 会談.

European countries with 国家主義者 leaders that have enjoyed warmer 関係 with Trump may use the next few months to 強固にする/合併する/制圧する 外交の 伸び(る)s. Poland 目的(とする)s to solidify 計画(する)s for a "Fort Trump" - a long sought-after base of U.S. 軍隊/機動隊s.

But any big changes in the trans-大西洋 関係 will have to wait at least until November, said the Paris-based 外交官/大使 of a large EU country, 予報するing a "moment of 対決" if Trump should 勝利,勝つ another 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語.

"Everybody is keeping their fingers crossed and will wait."

(付加 報告(する)/憶測ing by Joanna Plucinska in Warsaw; Michel Rose in Paris; Bart Meijer in Amsterdam; Joseph Ax in Princeton, N.J.; and Trevor Hunnicutt in New York)

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