U.S. shale 供給（する） chain will 現れる smaller from price war, pandemic: Kemp
By John Kemp
LONDON, July 31 (Reuters) - 低迷ing oil and gas prices as a result of the pandemic and the 容積／容量 war earlier in the year between Saudi Arabia and Russia have 削除するd 雇用 in the U.S. oil and gas fields at some of the fastest 率s on 記録，記録的な／記録する.
Oil and gas-関係のある 雇用 is 分裂（する） across several different 部類s in the 連邦の 政府´s 統計に基づく system, making it hard to 跡をつける changes in total oilfield and gasfield 雇用.
But one of the largest and most 明白な 部類s is "support activities for oil and gas 操作／手術s", covering a wide 範囲 of ancillary activities from 探検, 場所／位置 作品, 事例／患者ing and tubing to 固く結び付けるing, fracking and acidizing.
Total 雇用 at support 会社／堅いs fell by 54,000 職業s (20%) in just three months between February and May, によれば the U.S. Bureau of Labor 統計（学） ("現在の 雇用 統計（学）", July 2).
雇用 has shrunk by 86,000 (30%) compared with its 最近の 頂点（に達する） in October 2018 and is now 支援する to the low level 報告（する）／憶測d in the 影響 of the previous 容積／容量 war in 2014-2016.
Even more 職業 losses are likely to have occurred in June and July given the continued 減少（する） in the number of active 装備するs 報告（する）／憶測d by field services 会社／堅い パン職人 Hughes since the end of May.
Layoffs have had a 破滅的な 衝撃 on 雇用 in the oil-rich Permian 水盤／入り江 with the total number of 職業s in both the Midland and Odessa metro areas 負かす／撃墜する by more than 10% compared with a year ago.
The 連合させるd 衝撃 of the coronavirus 疫病／流行性の and price 低迷 have produced the worst 職業 losses in the area for more than thirty years (https://tmsnrt.rs/2PeIB6R).
SUPPLY CHAIN
The 低迷 is putting 激しい 強調する／ストレス on the entire 供給（する） chain, the ecosystem of large and small 請負業者s, 技術d and 半分-技術d 労働 that underpins oil and gas 生産／産物.
The 供給（する） chain´s 驚くべき／特命の／臨時の 柔軟性 and responsiveness fuelled three shale にわか景気s in gas (2004-2008) and oil (2012-2014 and 2017-2018).
And it has 証明するd resilient, with 演習ing and 完成 activity bouncing 支援する 速く when oil prices climbed 支援する above $50 per バーレル／樽 after the 2014-2016 低迷.
But the longer prices remain low, the greater the 危険 some 供給（する） capacity will be lost 永久的に, 限界ing its ability to 拡大する again when the next cyclical 上昇 begins, 原因（となる）ing long-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 scarring in 生産（高）.
Some 装備するs will likely be 取り去る／解体するd and scrapped; 演習ing, fracking and 場所／位置 準備 乗組員s 解散するd; and smaller 商売／仕事s の近くにd.
石油輸出国機構 REACTION
Saudi Arabia, Russia and their partners in the 拡大するd 石油輸出国機構+ group of oil 輸出業者s will be watching 開発s in the U.S. 供給（する） chain closely.
In 2017/18, when 石油輸出国機構+ 減ずるd 生産／産物 to 解除する prices, the 供給（する） chain 回復するd more 堅固に than 心配するd, 主要な to a 新たにするd 殺到する in 生産（高）, creating 条件s for the next price 低迷 in 2019/20.
Russia, in particular, will want to 避ける a repeat of the earlier mistake of 解除するing prices 未熟に and too high, throwing a lifeline to U.S. shale 生産者s.
Over the last １０年間, U.S. shale 生産者s 逮捕（する）d between two-thirds and three-４半期/4分の1s of all growth in 全世界の oil 消費, 二塁打ing their market 株, at the expense of 競争相手s, which is not 維持できる in the long run.
石油輸出国機構+ will likely want to keep prices low enough for long enough to encourage some 資本／首都 and capacity to leave the 供給（する） chain 永久的に, though for 外交の and 合法的な 推論する／理由s it is ありそうもない to make this goal explicit.
For Russia, and perhaps for other 石油輸出国機構+ countries, the 目的（とする） will be to see a smaller shale 部門 with いっそう少なく capacity to ramp up 生産／産物 quickly if and when oil prices rise during the next cyclical 上昇傾向.
関係のある columns:
- Oil 生産者s will fight for market 株 as 消費 growth slows (Reuters, July 6)
- Oil prices likely to 普通の／平均（する） いっそう少なく than $60 over next cycle (Reuters , June 17)
- 石油輸出国機構+ must 計画（する） 出口 戦略 (Reuters, May 27)
- 石油輸出国機構 and U.S. shale drillers are on 衝突／不一致 course (Reuters, June 15, 2017) (Editing by Marguerita Choy)
