回復 in Asia 位置／汚点／見つけ出す LNG price more about 供給（する） than 需要・要求する: Russell
By Clyde Russell
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The 位置／汚点／見つけ出す price of 液化するd natural gas (LNG) for 配達／演説／出産 to north Asia is continuing to 回復する, but the 増加する appears to have more to do with 供給（する） 問題／発行するs than any 回復する in 需要・要求する.
The 位置／汚点／見つけ出す price <LNG-AS> of 貨物s for October 配達／演説／出産 rose to $4.50 per million British thermal 部隊s (mmBtu) in the week ended Sept. 4, an eight-month high and some 143% above the 記録，記録的な／記録する low of $1.85, reached in two separate weeks at the beginning and end of May.
While that looks like an impressive 決起大会／結集させる in 百分率 条件, it's 価値（がある） 公式文書，認めるing that the 位置／汚点／見つけ出す price is just わずかに higher than the $4.40 per mmBtu in the same week in 2019, and さもなければ below the price that 勝つ／広く一帯に広がるd at this point in the year in every year since 査定／評価s began in 2010.
Given the 規模 of the price 決起大会／結集させる, it's tempting to すぐに assume that there has been a 殺到する in 需要・要求する for LNG as さまざまな countries across Asia try to 再構築する their economies after the 攻撃する，衝突する from lockdowns to 戦闘 the novel coronavirus pandemic.
However, there isn't too much 証拠 to support that 見解（をとる） in the 大型船-跡をつけるing and port data 収集するd by Refinitiv, which 監視するs the flow of LNG 貨物s.
Looking at Asia as a whole, Refinitiv data show 161.8 million tonnes of the 最高の-冷気／寒がらせるd 燃料 was 配達するd in the first eight months of the year, up わずかに on the 159.6 million tonnes for the same period in 2019.
Since the price 回復 started from June onwards, it's 価値（がある） looking at whether 輸入するs have 増加するd in July and August, and here the 証拠 is not 納得させるing.
Asia's LNG 輸入するs in August were 19.78 million tonnes, 負かす／撃墜する from 20.34 million in the same month last year, while July's were 19.33 million, 負かす／撃墜する from 20.29 million in July 2019.
However, two of Asia's main 買い手s that 購入（する） a greater 百分率 of their 貨物s on a 位置／汚点／見つけ出す basis have been 増加するing 輸入するs.< /p>
中国 輸入するd 5.91 million tonnes in August, up from 5.14 million in the same month last year, while it's July 輸入するs were 5.27 million tonnes, up from 4.63 million in July 2019.
India's 輸入するs were 2.19 million tonnes in August, up from 1.88 million a year earlier, while it's July 購入（する）s were 2.42 million, up from 2.04 million.
Asia's biggest LNG 買い手, Japan, has been 比較して 安定した in its 輸入するs, with Refinitiv data showing 6.26 million tonnes in August, 事実上 不変の from 6.29 million a year earlier, and July's 6.0 million 負かす／撃墜する a tad from 6.4 million in July last year.
South Korea, the third-階級d 買い手, saw a 示すd 減少（する） in August 貨物s to 2.20 million tonnes from 3.2 million a year ago, while July 輸入するs were 2.21 million, 負かす／撃墜する from 2.96 million in the same month in 2019.
However, South Korea's January-August 輸入するs are only わずかに 負かす／撃墜する at 25.9 million tonnes from 26.1 million in the first eight months of 2019.
全体にわたる, the 需要・要求する picture that 現れるs from Asia is that にもかかわらず the pandemic, 容積／容量s have held up. However, the modest 1.4% rise in the first eight months 示すs that 需要・要求する is ありそうもない to have been the major driver of 位置／汚点／見つけ出す LNG's volatile price movements.
SUPPLY IS KEY
Rather, it seems 供給（する） factors have been 運動ing prices, with the overhang of 利用できる 貨物s in the first half of the year a particular drag.
It's no secret that the （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限ing of new LNG trains in Australia, the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs and どこかよそで 押し進めるd the market into a 供給（する） 黒字／過剰 in 2019, and the coronavirus pandemic certainly choked off hopes that 早い 需要・要求する growth would help balance the market.
The 回復 in prices since the middle of year seems to be 大部分は built on the idling of some LNG 生産（高） in the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs, which 削減（する） the flow of U.S 貨物s to Asia.
Just 14 大型船s carrying 971,000 tonnes of U.S. LNG were offloaded at Asian ports in August, the lowest 容積／容量 since September last year and いっそう少なく than half th e 2.13 million tonnes 発射する／解雇するd in May, which was the strongest month on 記録，記録的な／記録する.
There have also been 維持／整備-関係のある shutdowns in Australia, which overtook Qatar to become the biggest 輸出業者 of the 燃料 after building eight new 事業／計画（する）s over the past １０年間.
Chevron has had one of the three trains at its 大規模な Gorgon 事業／計画（する） in Western Australia 明言する／公表する offline since May, and although it ーするつもりであるs to 再開する the 部隊 next month, it also 計画（する）s to 成し遂げる 行う／開催する／段階d shutdowns of the other two trains, the first in October and the second in January.
王室の Dutch 爆撃する is in the 過程 of 再開するing its 3.6 million tonnes a year 序幕 floating LNG 工場／植物, which has been offline since February, but has yet to 明言する／公表する when it will return to 操作／手術, Argus 報告（する）／憶測d on Sept. 4.
While watching for any 転換s in 需要・要求する ahead of the northern 半球 winter will be important, keeping an 注目する，もくろむ on rising 供給（する） from the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs and Australia is also likely to 証明する 重要な.
(Editing by Richard Pullin)
