GRAPHIC-戦略 Review, tick, next? Five questions for the ECB
By Dhara Ranasinghe and Saikat Chatterjee
LONDON, July 19 (Reuters) - 推定する／予想するd until recently to be a 静かな 集会 before the summer break, the European Central Bank's July 22 会合 is 形態／調整ing up to be a 重要な event に引き続いて the 解放（する） of its long-を待つd 戦略 review.
Under the new 戦略 明かすd on July 8, the ECB will 的 インフレーション of 2% and 許容する higher インフレーション when 利益／興味 率s are 近づく 激しく揺する-底（に届く）, as they are now.
"July looked like a 会合 that could have been cancelled," said Carsten Brzeski, 長，指導者 経済学者 at ING Germany.
"Now it's become more exciting after the review, given different 解釈／通訳s of what it means and 持つ／拘留するs for 未来 政策 changes."
Here are five 重要な questions on the レーダ for markets.
1. How will the ECB change its 今後 指導／手引?
The ECB is 推定する／予想するd to change its 政策 指導／手引 to 反映する the new 2% インフレーション goal and かもしれない commit to a 強烈な 通貨の 政策 返答 to 達成する that 目的（とする）.
Under 現在の 指導／手引, the ECB will buy 負債 for as long as necessary and keep 率s at 現在の, 記録，記録的な／記録する-low levels until it sees インフレーション "robustly converge" to its 的.
Its updated 指導／手引 must 最高潮の場面 the "room for manoeuvre" it has given itself on インフレーション, or 危険 losing 信用性, 治める／統治するing 会議 member Mario Centeno told Reuters last week.
"We think that the ECB will 強化する its 今後 指導／手引 to signal a longer period of 不変の 政策 率s and 逮捕する 購入（する）s under the 資産 購入（する） Programme (APP) than markets 現在／一般に 推定する／予想する," said Nick Kounis, 長，率いる of 財政上の markets 研究 at ABN AMRO.
2. What is the 未来 of the PEPP?
Changing 今後 指導／手引 could be the 平易な part. 演説（する）／住所ing what happens to the 1.85 一兆 euro ($2.2 一兆) PEPP 緊急 刺激 計画／陰謀, which 満了する／死ぬs next March, could be trickier and a question the ECB 延期するs until September.
While an 告示 延長するing the PEPP cannot be 支配するd out, there are two 推論する／理由s why ECB 長，指導者 Christine Lagarde may choose to bat away questions on the topic.
First, the ECB has said 緊急 社債 buys will remain elevated in the third ４半期/4分の1 and its next review 落ちるs in September.
Second, 最新の staff 予測（する）s are 解放（する）d in September and the ECB may prefer to wait for updated インフレーション and growth 見積（る）s before 事実上の／代理.
3. Will the ECB 上げる its 資産 購入（する） Programme?
The ECB 直面するs 圧力 to show it is serious about its new 2% インフレーション goal. That means it could beef up the 20 billion euros a month APP - introduced in 2014 to 取り組む a previous 危機 and 治める／統治するd by 厳格な人 支配するs - once the PEPP ends, and 追加する in some more 柔軟性.
"It's very likely that the APP will be recalibrated ーに関して／ーの点でs of its size and even perhaps into something different," said Frederik Ducrozet at Pictet Wealth 管理／経営.
4. Have downside 危険s to the economy 増加するd?
Rising coronavirus 感染 率s, driven by the 感染性の Delta variant, are 軍隊ing more European countries to reimpose activity 制限s, かもしれない crimping 経済的な 回復.
Nearly 90% of 経済学者s 投票d by Reuters said new COVID-19 variants were the biggest 危険 to the euro zone economy, which they 推定する／予想する to grow at a healthy 4.5% this year.
The ECB could 演説（する）／住所 the 見通し in a new 簡単にするd pre-news 会議／協議会 声明.
5. How serious are the 分割s on the 治める／統治するing 会議?
ECB policymakers 審議d trimming 刺激 in June as the 回復 gathered pace but 設立する "幅の広い 協定" to 持続する an elevated level of support, によれば the published account of that 会合.
While 分割s have become 明らかな in 最近の weeks, COVID-19-関係のある 経済的な 不確定 could 供給する an 適切な時期 for policymakers to 始める，決める aside their differences.
"Even if you believe in the need to 強化する 政策, it may be better to wait for September given the 不確定s," Pictet's Ducroze t said.
(報告（する）／憶測ing by Dhara Ranasinghe; Graphics by Saikat Chatterjee; Editing by Sujata Rao and Catherine Evans)
