ロシアの 税金 brews up perfect aluminium 賞与金 嵐／襲撃する: Andy Home
By Andy Home
LONDON, July 19 (Reuters) - Aluminium has been one of the strongest year-to-date performers の中で the 産業の metals thanks to 強健な pandemic 需要・要求する 回復 and 生産／産物 抑制（する）s in 中国, the world's largest 生産者.
The London Metal 交流 (LME) price has lost some of its 上向きs 勢い since hitting a three-year high of $2,603 per tonne in May, but at a 現在の $2,450 is still up by a fifth from the start of January, a 業績／成果 （太陽，月の）食／失墜d only by tin.
As some of the heat leaves the 未来s market, however, it is 存在 transferred to the physical 供給（する） chain.
賞与金s, which a physical 買い手 支払う／賃金s on 最高の，を越す of the cash LME price, are 殺到するing. The CME Midwest 部隊d 明言する／公表するs 賞与金 has leapt to 記録，記録的な／記録する highs above $660 per tonne, meaning a 地元の 製造業者 is 支払う／賃金ing an all-in price in 超過 of $3,000 per tonne. (https://tmsnrt.rs/3iFFxPB)
The 誘発する／引き起こす for the 最新の jump in 賞与金s is the 課税 of an 輸出（する） 税金 on ロシアの aluminium, a 重要な 供給（する） source for both European and U.S. markets.
However, this 賞与金 嵐／襲撃する has been building for some time and 反映するs tectonic changes in the 全世界の aluminium market.
RUSSIAN ROCKET
Russia ーするつもりであるs to 徴収する a 税金 on the country's 輸出（する）s of steel, nickel, 巡査 and aluminium from August through December.
Aluminium will be 支配する to a 15% 輸出（する） 税金 or a 最小限 of $254 a tonne, whichever is the higher.
The 対策 are 推定する／予想するd to raise up to $2.3 billion, which will be used to mitigate the 衝撃 of high 全世界の prices on the country's 石油精製 metals 部門s.
However, 消費者s everywhere else will be 影響する／感情d given ロシアの 生産者 Rusal last year produced 3.8 million tonnes, or around 6% of the 全世界の market.
Physical 賞与金s jumped on the June 28 告示, the U.S. Midwest 契約 on the CME rising 10% and the European 義務-paid 契約 殺到するing by 45% to $362 per tonne.
That tells you the ma rket is 推定する／予想するing Rusal to be able to pass at least part of the 輸出（する） 関税 through to 顧客s.
Some sort of 分裂（する） between 生産者 and 消費者s is the most likely 結果, によれば 分析家s at Citi, who 推定する／予想する the U.S. 賞与金 to 頂点（に達する） out at around 35 cents per lb ($772 per tonne). ("商品／必需品s Market 見通し Q3 2021")
The big question is whether the ロシアの 当局 延長する beyond December what is 現在／一般に 存在 現在のd as a one-off windfall 利益（をあげる） 税金 on 地元の metals 生産者s.
Unless 全世界の prices 衝突，墜落 between now and then, the 合理的な／理性的な behind the 税金 - 保護物，者ing 国内の 消費者s - will be 不変の as will likely be the ロシアの 財務省's enthusiasm for a new 歳入 stream.
FRACTURED SUPPLY CHAINS
The 現在の bull 嵐／襲撃する in the physical aluminium 供給（する） chain echoes a 類似の 激変 in 2018, when ロシアの aluminium 供給（する） was 脅すd with U.S. 許可／制裁s, subsequently 解除するd.
The U.S. Midwest 賞与金 rose to $450 per tonne, which at the time seemed an 前例のない level, even 許すing for U.S. 輸入する 関税s of 10%.
The 詐欺師 賞与金 reaction this time around speaks to how 使い果たすd both U.S. and European markets are 親族 to three years ago.
The U.S. in particular is struggling to attract enough 部隊s to 料金d にわか景気ing 需要・要求する. 輸入するs from Canada are capped by a 割当 - the quid プロの／賛成の quo for 義務-解放する／自由な status - and a dysfunctional 全世界の freight market is 妨害するing metal flows from other 生産者 地域s.
It is also making those flows more expensive to ship, 与える／捧げるing another driver to structurally higher 賞与金s.
Both the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs and Europe are natural 赤字 markets when it comes to aluminium and the 現在の 欠如（する） of コンテナ freight capacity may be making them "islands" in the 全世界の 供給（する） chain, によれば Citi.
SHIFTING STOCKS
Part of the problem for U.S. and European 製造業者s is that the axis of 全世界の 在庫 has 転換d during the pandemic.
超過 metal during the G lobal 財政上の 危機 built up in Detroit and the Dutch port of Vlissingen. This 危機 has seen spare metal migrate to Asia.
LME 倉庫／問屋s in the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs 現在／一般に 持つ／拘留する 40,975 tonnes of aluminium, just 3% of the total 1.46 million tonnes sitting in the 交流's 全世界の 網状組織. The LME's European 場所s 持つ／拘留する 101,125 tonnes or 7%.
Everything else is in Asia, 特に Malaysia's Port Klang, which 持つ／拘留するs 868,100 tonnes and is also the 場所 of a 168-day 負担-out 列, another cog in the bull 賞与金 machine.
The 配当 of LME 登録（する）d 在庫 is mirrored in the 交流's 影をつくる／尾行する 在庫／株s. Metal 存在 蓄える／店d off market but with the 選択 of 交流 配達／演説／出産 written into the 倉庫／問屋ing 契約 totalled 869,875 tonnes at the end of May. Asian 場所s accounted for 85% of that tonnage.
The movement of the world's accessible 在庫／株 to Asia has been driven by changing dynamics in 中国, the world's 最高の，を越す 使用者 and 生産者 of aluminium.
歴史的に a 逮捕する 輸出業者 in the form of 半分-製造（する）d 製品s, 中国 has been （電話線からの）盗聴 international markets for both 最初の／主要な metal and alloy since it first 現れるd from COVID-19 lockdown in the second ４半期/4分の1 of last year.
中国's 巨大（な） 生産／産物 部門 is 存在 攻撃する，衝突する by smelter curtailments in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan 予定 to energy caps and low hydro 力／強力にする それぞれ.
With 中国's leadership plotting the path to 炭素 中立 by 2060, such 圧力s on 中国's 生産／産物 base, much of it 力／強力にするd by coal, are 推定する／予想するd to 増加する.
So too are its 輸入するs of 商品／必需品-grade metal, which is why so much aluminium has 転換d to 場所s within 平易な shipping distance of 中国's main ports.
The 親族 削減 in 在庫／株s cover for 消費者s everywhere else has left them acutely 攻撃を受けやすい to the 現在の rolling freight disruption.
急に上がるing 賞与金s 反映する this new aluminium market reality.
賞与金s are going to remain 高度に volatile 簡単に because of the large number of d isparate drivers that have 連合させるd over the last year.
The more 根底となる 問題／発行する for 買い手s, however, is that aluminium is starting to behave like a market with a 構造上の 供給（する） problem. And for the first time in two １０年間s that problem is not one of 中国's 超過 生産／産物.
(Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
