Beware the big 投資 泡s that you thought were 安全な

By Daily Mail Reporter
Updated: 16:58 BST, 8 April 2011

It's barely three months old, but 2011 is already 存在 dubbed the year of 騒動. In a time of wars and natural 災害s 投資家s are 存在 警告するd of a hard road ahead in everything from 株 to gold.

The 株式市場 has be en 動揺させるd by world events, 含むing Japan's 破滅的な 地震 and 現在進行中の 暴力／激しさ in the Arab world, and could be in line for a 相当な 是正.

一方／合間, the 簡潔な／要約する 所有物／資産／財産 market 決起大会／結集させる looks to have run its course, and there are 調印するs of 泡s どこかよそで. We look at five 泡s to watch out for: the FTSE 100, 所有物／資産／財産, UK gilts, gold and 中国.

A 安全な bet? 投資家s have flocked to gold in times of 不確定 and 緊縮, but 分析家s are 関心d that the relentless rise has taken it into 泡 領土

GOLD: 'Biggest 泡 in history'?

Gold is the most 攻撃を受けやすい of 資産 classes. The precious metal has had a stratospheric rise, hitting a 記録，記録的な／記録する $1,447.40 an ounce last week after months of 不安 across North Africa and the Middle East.

投資家s have flocked to gold in times of 不確定 and 緊縮, but 分析家s are 関心d that the relentless rise has taken it into 泡 領土.

Jeremy Beckwith, 長，指導者 投資 officer at Kleinwort Benson, believes gold 'has the 可能性のある to be the biggest bubb le in the history of the world'.

Darius McDermott, managing director of 割引 仲買人 Chelsea 財政上の Services, agrees. 'One tell-tale 調印する of a 泡 is when everyone tries to get in on the 活動／戦闘,' he says. 'You can't 選ぶ up a newspaper or a magazine without seeing a hot 在庫／株 tip for gold or someone trying to 交換（する） your gold for cash.

'The time to buy was ten years ago when the price was at $250 and everybody was ダンピング it ? 含むing Gordon Brown. The 幸福感 示唆するs '泡' to me.'

Keith Wade, 長，指導者 経済学者 at 基金 経営者／支配人 Schroders, says the prospect of rising 利益／興味 率s 提起する／ポーズをとるs a 脅し to gold: 'If 利益／興味 率s begin to rise, people want to put their money in something that gives them a return.' He 推定する／予想するs the European Central Bank to 引き上げ（る） 率s in April with the UK に引き続いて 控訴 in August.

However, like all 泡s, gold might have その上の to inflate. Brian Dennehy, managing director at 財政上の 助言者 Dennehy Weller and Cor, says: 'We 港／避難所't had the 爆発性の rise in price that tends to 示す the end of a 思索的な move in any 商品／必需品, though that doesn't mean gold cannot 落ちる はっきりと from here.' He sees support for the gold price below $1,000.

GILTS: When 利益／興味 率s rise, prices go 負かす／撃墜する

Rising 利益／興味 率s also bode 不正に for 政府 社債s, or 'gilts'. When 利益／興味 率s go up, 社債 prices go 負かす／撃墜する.

Rising インフレーション ? which 攻撃する，衝突する 4.4 per cent in February ? also 損害賠償金 社債 prices. Unless the 社債s are 索引-linked, the income they 生成する fails to 持続する its buying 力／強力にする. To 補償する, 社債 prices typically 落ちる.

These 脅しs have 刺激するd 審議 as to whether gilts are in 泡 領土. Steve Wilson, a 財政上の 顧問 at Alan Steel 資産 管理／経営, says: '利益／興味 率s are going to rise as the 政府 tries to 含む／封じ込める インフレーション. 泡 or no 泡, 広大な 量s of money has been 投資する d in gilts or US 同等（の）s in the past two years and that 関心s us. At times like this you want any gilt 持つ／拘留するing to be on a short-duration basis.'

Ian Spreadbury, 経営者／支配人 of Fidelity 戦略の 社債 基金, doesn't believe gilts are in a 泡, but says better value is to be had どこかよそで in 社債 markets. He has recently sold gilts in favour of 投資 grade and high-産する／生じる 法人組織の／企業の 社債s, 同様に as a '戦略の （危険などに）さらす' to インフレーション-linked 社債s 問題／発行するd by the UK, US and Japanese 政府s.

FTSE 100: Up to 6,200 then 負かす／撃墜する to 4,800

投資家s have flocked 支援する to the 株式市場 まっただ中に a 安定した rise for 株. The blue 半導体素子 索引 sunk to around 3,460 in March 2009, but stood at the 6,100 level at the start of this year ? up more than 75 per cent.

小売 投資家s have been 逮捕する 買い手s of UK 公正，普通株主権s for nine 連続した months, data from Capita Registrars shows. They pumped £473m of new money into UK 在庫／株s from December to February, after putting in £461m in the previous three months and £516m from June to August 2010.

However, 株 have 宙返り／暴落するd in 最近の weeks on the 支援する of Japan's 地震 and Middle East 騒動. The UK （判断の）基準 is 負かす／撃墜する 1.6 per cent so far in March, and is hovering around 6,000.

Adrian Lowcock, a 上級の 投資 助言者 at 仲買人 Bestinvest, 推定する／予想するs 在庫／株s to slide, given 'weak 経済成長 in the UK and greater 不確定 in the world with rising oil prices and 危機 in Japan'.

Brian Dennehy has pencilled in a 是正 負かす／撃墜する to 4,800, かもしれない after the 索引 has 'had another run at 6,200'.

PROPERTY: 成し遂げるing 不正に and getting worse

Britain's 所有物／資産／財産 market 回復 has run out of steam, with the Land Registry 報告（する）／憶測ing actual s elling prices 落ちるing 0.8 per cent in February.

Though 全国的な said on Thursday that prices had risen 0.5 per cent in March, the building society is 予報するing flat or わずかに 落ちるing prices through 2011. The Halifax, which has taken a much gloomier 見解（をとる） of the market, 推定する／予想するs prices to 下落する 2 per cent this year.

With the 消費者 Prices 索引 手段 of インフレーション running a 4.4 per cent, 所有物／資産／財産 as an 投資 is 成し遂げるing 不正に. Robert Gardner, 全国的な's 長，指導者 経済学者, said: 'The 職業s market remains challenging and 全国的な's 消費者 信用／信任 索引 示唆するs that 感情 has fallen to an かつてない low in 最近の months.'

激しく揺する-底（に届く） 利益／興味 率s have helped to 支え（る） up the 住宅 market and '予報するing the end of the 所有物／資産／財産 にわか景気 has become a graveyard for 分析家s', says McDermott at Chelsea 財政上の Services. However, while bricks and 迫撃砲 might have 反抗するd logic to date, he says it's 'only a 事柄 of time' before the 泡 pops.

'It is very difficult to pinpoint when the market will go over the 辛勝する／優位, but a 引き上げ（る） in 率s might 軍隊 a wave of 販売人s to bring 所有物／資産／財産 to the market, 劇的な 減ずるing 資本／首都 values.'

Keith Wade at Schroders, believes UK house prices will 落ちる by 5-10 per cent over the next two years.

CHINA: 住宅 にわか景気 hangs over economy

While 中国's 株式市場 has 成し遂げるd 貧しく of late, its 住宅 market has overheated to 泡 割合s. 住宅 在庫／株 is 現在／一般に 価値（がある） 350 per cent of 甚だしい／１２ダース 国内の 製品 ? 類似の to where Japan was before its 所有物／資産／財産 泡 burst, says Adrian Lowcock.

Could a 崩壊（する） in the 所有物／資産／財産 market 攻撃する，衝突する the broader economy to such an extent that 投資家s should be worried about their 公正，普通株主権 基金s in 中国 and Asia 捕まらないで?

'The 陪審／陪審員団 is out on this,' says Brian Dennehy. 'Our advice is to assume there will be volatility as 所有物／資産／財産 prices 訂正する, and loo k for 適切な時期s to buy 公正，普通株主権s cheaply to take advantage of the long-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 可能性のある. Better still, 投資する 月毎の and volatility will work in your favour.'

So where should you 投資する?

まっただ中に 脅しs of 泡s, what should you buy? Lowcock likes 公正，普通株主権 income, which has lagged the 株式市場 回復, and recommends Artemis Income with a 産する／生じる of 4.3 per cent.

McDermott tips Schroder Income Maximizer, which has 攻撃する，衝突する its 7 per cent income 的 for four years running, and Henderson 戦略の 社債 基金. Those 投資するing for the long-run should look at 農業 and CF Eclectica, he says.

Dennehy tips the Insight 絶対の Insight 基金, which has returned an 普通の／平均（する） of 7 per cent for the past three years, and two income 基金s: Schroder Income and Newton Asian Income.

'In this uncertain 環境 ? where we must 推定する／予想する sharp swings in 感情 and markets for some years ? 焦点（を合わせる） on 基金s that 申し込む／申し出 a 安定した 創立／基礎,' he advises.