英貨の/純銀の's roller coaster ride to continue in 2015 in a 決定的な year for the 続けざまに猛撃する - but will it rise or 落ちる against the euro and dollar?
英貨の/純銀の has 耐えるd a 騒然とした two years and its path over the next 12 months will be 決定的な for families and 商売/仕事s across the UK.
The 続けざまに猛撃する sank like a 石/投石する in the 早期に part of 2013 ? 崩壊(する)ing from $1.63 at the start of the year to $1.48 in July ? before a 劇の 12 month 決起大会/結集させる took it to $1.72 in July 2014.
But it has since been 堅固に on the 支援する foot against a resurgent 米国紙幣 and stood at $1.55 last night.
What does the 未来 持つ/拘留する??英貨の/純銀の has 耐えるd a 騒然とした two years and its path over the next 12 months will be 決定的な for families and 商売/仕事s across the UK
The UK 通貨’s perf ormance against the euro has also been mixed although it has managed to hang on to most of its 伸び(る)s of the last 18 months.
‘英貨の/純銀の has been through the wars during 2014,’ said Simon Smith, 長,指導者 経済学者 at 通貨 専門家s FxPro. ‘The year ahead could be just as troublesome.’?
The 続けざまに猛撃する starts the year on the 支援する foot against the dollar but in better 形態/調整 against the euro.
A strong 続けざまに猛撃する is good for Bri ts travelling abroad as it makes goods and services in the 地元の 通貨 cheaper.
For example, someone visiting New York in July 2013 would have got around $148 for £100 compared with the $172 they would have got in July 2014, depending on the tourist 率. However, they would only get around $1.55 today, or even いっそう少なく when transferring money at the Bureau de Change.
It also helps keep a lid on インフレーション as it makes it cheaper to 輸入する goods from overseas. For example, 輸入するing a ?15,000 car from Germany would cost £11,538 with the 続けざまに猛撃する at ?1.30 and £13,636 at ?1.10.
But the flip 味方する is that it makes UK 輸出(する)s more expensive, 潜在的に denting 需要・要求する for British goods in 決定的な markets.
Good times: Someone visiting New York in July 2013 would have got around $148 for £100 compared with the $172 they would have got in July 2014
英貨の/純銀の’s strength against the euro is 明確に a worry for 製造業者s at a time when the spectre of stagnation and デフレ is hanging over the 選び出す/独身 通貨 圏, Britain’s biggest 輸出(する) market.
‘The combination of weak eurozone 経済的な activity and a still 比較して strong 続けざまに猛撃する is 妨害するing the prospects for UK 輸出(する)s to develop decent growth and help 全体にわたる 経済的な 拡大 to become more balanced,’ said Howard Archer, 長,指導者 UK and European 経済学者 at IHS 全世界の Insight. ‘その上に, 全世界の growth is 現在/一般に muted with the 見通し uncertain.’
So where is the 続けざまに猛撃する 長,率いるing in 2015?
分析家s at Forex.com believe 英貨の/純銀の will 貿易(する) between $1.53 and $1.58 against the 米国紙幣 in 2015 and ?1.24 and ?1.29 against the 選び出す/独身 通貨.
Much, however, depends on the 見通し for the economy and 利益/興味 率s.
Higher 利益/興味 率s, or the prospect of them, typically 上げる a 通貨 as 投資家s are attracted by the 約束 of higher returns. 英貨の/純銀の started rising in July 2013 as the UK economy 選ぶd up and the first 引き上げ(る) in 利益/興味 率s since 2007 appeared to be on the horizon ? かもしれない before the end of 2014.
Such a 率 引き上げ(る) did not materialise and the 続けざまに猛撃する has been 弱めるing against the dollar in 最近の months as 期待s of when it will come were 押し進めるd 支援する.
Some 観察者/傍聴者s now believe there is a chance 率s will stay at 0.5 per cent until late 2015 or even 2016.
Volatile: 混乱 led to an MP 告発する/非難するing Bank of England 知事 示す Carney of behaving like ‘an unreliable boyfriend’ by blowing hot and 冷淡な on when 率s will finally rise
The 混乱 led to an MP 告発する/非難するing Bank of England 知事 示す Carney of behaving like ‘an unreliable boyfriend’ by blowing hot and 冷淡な on when 率s will finally rise.
‘The volatility in 2014 was 原因(となる)d by 転換ing 利益/興味 率 期待s, as Carney made us believe 支援する in June that a rise was possible this year,’ said Smith at FxPro. ‘The 落ちる was 原因(となる)d by this 危険 存在 定価つきの out.’
Smith now believes that the 続けざまに猛撃する will 落ちる to $1.52 in the second 4半期/4分の1 of the year and $1.48 in the third before rising to $1.50 in the fourth.
But he 推定する/予想するs the 続けざまに猛撃する to 強化する against the euro, hitting ?1.3393 by the end of 2 015, as the European Central Bank starts printing money in a desperate 企て,努力,提案 to 刺激する the eurozone economy.
‘The prospect of 十分な blown quantitative 緩和 is a 危険 that will 重さを計る on the 選び出す/独身 通貨 at the start of 2015,’ said Harry Adams, managing director at 通貨 専門家s Argentex.
‘European 利益/興味 率s will remain low and その上の 刺激 likely 要求するd, making it 平易な to see why some major banks are 予測(する)ing 重要な 証拠不十分 for the 選び出す/独身 通貨 in the New Year.’
期待s:?Simon Smith of FxPro said he 推定する/予想するs the 続けざまに猛撃する to 強化する against the euro, hitting ?1.3393 by the end of 2015
The 回復 in America has 上げるd the dollar in 最近の months in the same way the 回復 in the UK 上げるd the 続けざまに猛撃する in late 2013 and 早期に 2014.
The US 連邦の Reserve now looks 始める,決める to be the first of the major central banks to raise 利益/興味 率s ? (警官の)巡回区域,受持ち区域ing the Bank of England to the 地位,任命する.
英貨の/純銀の could also を煩う the 総選挙 in May ? 特に if, as is likely, no party 勝利,勝つs a 大多数.
‘The UK has the prospect of a 総選挙 in May to 競う with, 提起する/ポーズをとるing 重要な political 不確定,’ said Adams. ‘Indeed, when the 2010 選挙 resulted in a hung 議会, the first in almost 40 years, the 続けざまに猛撃する 苦しむd accordingly.’
The 続けざまに猛撃する looks 始める,決める for another roller coaster year with many betting it will lose out to the dollar but 強化する against the euro as the US economy leads the way, Britain slows, and the eurozone stagnates.
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