HAMISH MCRAE: If you adjust for the 落ちる in the 続けざまに猛撃する, 株 are barely up at all since the Brexit 投票(する)
What on earth are the markets trying to tell us? Brexiters are crowing that all three of the main 株 indices ? the FTSE 100 of the 巨大(な)s, the FTSE 250 of the medium-sized companies, and the FTSE SmallCap 索引 ? all went through their previous highs yesterday, the first time they have all done so since December 30, 1999.
Remainers, on the other 手渡す, are 焦点(を合わせる)ing on the 落ちる of the 続けざまに猛撃する, now at a 31-year low against the dollar, and a three-year low against the euro.?
There is a simple two-part answer to this. One half is that a weak 通貨 is good for most companies because in the short-run most of them will make more 利益(をあげる)s from 輸出(する)s.?
利益s: A weak 通貨 is good for most companies because in the short-run most of them will make more 利益(をあげる)s from 輸出(する)s
The other half is to 観察する that 株 prices are 表明するd in 英貨の/純銀の, and that if you adjust for the 落ちる in the 続けざまに猛撃する, 株 are barely up at all since the Brexit 投票(する).?
The last time the FTSE 100 索引 went through 7,000, 支援する in March 2015, the 続けざまに猛撃する was $1.50; now it is below $1.30.
The trouble with this sort of explanation is while it is 罰金 as far as it goes, it doesn't really tell us anything new about 投資家s' 期待s for the 未来. True, the 即座の 攻撃する,衝突する to the economy from Brexit has not been nearly as serious as the doom-mongers 予報するd.
The International 通貨の 基金 is not alone in having to do a quick about-turn, 昇格ing its UK 予測(する)s for this year.?
I 推定する/予想する the Bank of England will 類似して step 支援する from its 悲惨な 警告s in August and produce a more 上昇傾向 査定/評価 in its next インフレーション 報告(する)/憶測 in November. But 株 prices are supposed to give a feeling for the longer-称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語 見通し.?
Are they trying to tell us that a hard Brexit, the sharp disengagement from the EU that is now looking more likely, would be just 罰金 for British companies??
Or are they just 反映するing the world-wide 現象 that if the central banks 持つ/拘留する 負かす/撃墜する 利益/興味 率s and print shed-負担s of money, 資産 prices are bound to rise??
Or is this just another example of markets' irrational exuberance, as it was in December 1999, and in a few months' time we will be 支援する into a 耐える market?
井戸/弁護士席, the first is certainly true. The gloom about Brexit was absurd, and if a sense of 割合 has returned that is all to the good.
That money has to go somewhere is also true, and I 嫌疑者,容疑者/疑う that the central banks will 持つ/拘留する 率s 負かす/撃墜する for years to come. Sure, US short 率s will go up a bit, probably in December, but not by much.?
And if 分析家 Steven Major at HSBC is 権利, long 率s will stay very low for another five years. European 率s could remain 近づく 無 for years to come. Here in the UK I don't think they will go up much for another five years either.
Whether you agree with this 政策 or not ? and I happen to think it is profoundly dangerous ? this is the 穴を開ける central banks have got themselves into, and it will be a long time before they can dig themselves out.?
So the cash will go into 所有物/資産/財産, 公正,普通株主権s, gold, classic cars, indeed anything other than 社債s, and 資産 prices will climb as a result.
Might this be late 1999 again, with 15 years of 失望 ahead? It doesn't feel like it.?
Most people are not irrationally exuberant; they are not exuberant at all. If anything, they are worried ? about 不確定, about 負債, about living 基準s, about 年金s and so on. The mood in the markets feels more like 用心深い relie f, and all the healthier for it.
支援する from the brink
So which company's 株 in the Footsie have done the best this year? The answer is the 巨大(な) 採掘 company Anglo American. It's a remarkable 変形. In January its 株 price went as low as 215p.?
This week it has gone through £10. It is a remarkable '支援する from 災害' story, but a classic one.
It is remarkable in that it seemed to 直面する 大災害, 負担d with 負債, 直面するing the 崩壊(する) in raw 構成要素 prices, and with 抱擁する 環境の challenges.?
It is classic in that it has done the three things that turnaround specialists say have to be done: 支払う/賃金 負かす/撃墜する 負債, sell under-成し遂げるing 資産s, and 投資する in 約束ing parts of the 商売/仕事.?
In this 事例/患者 負債s are 負かす/撃墜する to just over $10billion, it is selling its coal and アイロンをかける 鉱石 地雷s, and it is 投資するing in diamond, platinum and 巡査.
All this has taken a while; 長,指導者 (n)役員/(a)執行力のある 示す Cutifani has been in 地位,任命する since 2013.
The 旅行 has been 押し進めるd along by the 商品/必需品s 回復, but it still has a long way to go.?
The 株 price was £34 in 2011. But turnarounds are 価値(がある) celebrating and not just for 株主s who called the moment to 投資する.
On the 示す
One of the いっそう少なく pleasant 面s of the Brexit/Remain tussle has been the attacks on 示す Carney's 業績/成果 at the Bank of England ? the suggestion for example that he has been talking 負かす/撃墜する the economy in the 影響 of the 投票(する).?
What he and the 通貨の 政策 委員会 have done is to 反映する 従来の opinion on the 衝撃 of the 投票(する), as shown in the 早期に 指示する人(物)s, and 答える/応じる to it by cutting 率s.?
Things have turned out better than they 推定する/予想するd, but that is good news. Besides, he has been good at managing his career, so the fact that he might stay in 地位,任命する a bit longer is rather a bull point for the economy.?
He would like to go out on a high ? so let's keep him around.
?
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