株式市場 危機: 専門家 見解（をとる）s

By Philip Scott
Updated: 08:49 BST, 17 August 2007

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Are we on the brink of a 長引かせるd 株式市場 拒絶する／低下する or will 株 bounce 支援する once short-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 volaitlity is 打ち勝つ? Find out what the 専門家s think...

THE BEARS

楽天主義者s are wrong
株式市場 hi storian David Schwartz: 楽天主義者s continue to （人命などを）奪う，主張する that we are in a 一時的な patch of 嵐の 天候. Unfortunately, history 供給するs us with a different message.

There were nine big 減少（する）s since the 広大な／多数の／重要な 不景気 in the 20-貿易（する）ing-day run-up to 31 July. A 十分な-育てる／巣立つd 耐える market was running in eight of those years. This year's big July 減少（する） was number 10 in the series. Another 耐える market signal flashed last night.

The FTSE-All 株 索引 fell 3.9% in the first 11 貿易（する）ing days of August. This is a point on the calendar when the UK 株式市場 often rises. There were 10 other big 減少（する）s during this period in the last seven １０年間s. A 十分な-育てる／巣立つd 耐える market was running in nine of those years.

If the past is any guide, the 耐える market of 2007 is probably 井戸／弁護士席 and truly 進行中で.

Good times are over
John Kennedy, 経営者／支配人 of the Scottish 投資 信用: We are at the 早期に 行う／開催する／段階 of the 必然的な. There has been too much credit and 負債 自由に 利用できる ? hedge 基金s, 私的な 公正，普通株主権 and people buying 所有物／資産／財産 with very little, if any, liquidity.

利益／興味 率s are rising and the crunch will come; people will have いっそう少なく 利用できる cash as mortgage costs rise and the price of food has risen 劇的な too. The reality of the 状況／情勢 is hitting home.

法人組織の／企業の 利益（をあげる）s are very high and we think they will pull 支援する because we are at the high point. In 新規加入, we are starting to see 利益（をあげる） 警告s come through in the US - this is the 早期に days of unwinding from the good times.

Footsie could 落ちる another 10%
Ted Scott, UK 基金 経営者／支配人 at F&C: Problems in the 財政上の markets will now 流出／こぼす over into the real economy. The FTSE All 株 索引 has fallen around 10% since 中央の-July, a move of a 類似の magnitude to the 是正 in May last year. However, in my 見解（をとる） the similarities end there. The 現在の turbulence is more serious and something to worry about.

I don't believe we are 長，率いるing for a 後退，不況 but the 重要な is how far can this 'credit crunch' go? The 消費者 has kept the economy ticking, but a 統治するing in of 負債 will 必然的に 衝撃 company 利益（をあげる）s and 収入s.

Although many 基金 経営者／支配人s 現在／一般に argue that the market is modestly valued, this is different from 2000 in that we have an 収入s 泡, not a price-収入s 泡. My 見解（をとる） is that 公正，普通株主権s have その上の to 落ちる before they become attractive again and the FTSE All-株 could 落ちる another 10%.

Days of 平易な credit are gone
ツバメ Slaney, 長，率いる of spread-betting at GFT 全世界の Markets: What we are 証言，証人／目撃するing is a 早い unwinding of 危険 on a 全世界の 規模. In these 極端に nervous market 条件s, 経済的な 根底となるs have gone out of the window and panic selling has 始める，決める in. The 危険 aversion and volatility is not likely to disappear for the foreseeable 未来.

The days of 平易な credit are almost certainly over and the 関わりあい／含蓄s of this for everyone - from hedge 基金s to home owners - are only now 存在 realised.

Fed must 削減（する） 率s
Jeremy Batstone, 長，率いる of 研究 at Charles Stanley stockbrokers: There is no 疑問 that the 連邦の Reserve needs to 削減（する） US 利益／興味 率s to stop this from turning from a 財政上の 危機 into an 経済的な 危機. It needs to 削減（する） 率s 積極性 and soon if it is to show it is serious about 注入するing liquidity.

THE FENCE-SITTERS

Come the 落ちる
Henk Potts, 公正，普通株主権 strategist at Barclays Wealth: The cloud of 不確定 looks 始める，決める to ぐずぐず残る over the markets until the autumn. Until 分析家s have a much better understanding of the losses and their 可能性のある 衝撃 the volatility will remain. One thing markets don't like is 不確定 and it is the 不確定 which is 原因（となる）ing the volatility.

Trees need shaking
Richard Hunter, 長，率いる of 公正，普通株主権s at Hargreaves Lansdown 在庫／株 仲買人s: It's really going to be over the next few weeks - as banks put up their 手渡すs over their （危険などに）さらす to losses in the US - that the market should level off. It's difficult to put a timeline on when the volatility may end until all the trees have been shaken.

THE BULLS

Medium-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 見通し is good
Edward Bonham Carter, 長，指導者 (n)役員／(a)執行力のある of Jupiter 資産 管理／経営: In our 見解（をとる） this 是正 has been driven by the repricing of credit 危険, which is having an 影響 on 投資家 信用／信任 and changing 投資家s' appetite for 危険. As such we have moved from a period of 信用／信任 to one of 恐れる.

However, while these 後退s can be painful in the short 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語, 投資家s must 焦点（を合わせる） on the 根底となる 見通し, which we believe is reasonable. As such, 株式市場s can continue to 供給する healthy returns over the medium 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語. But 投資家s should be 用意が出来ている for その上の wobbles over the summer as markets 捜し出す 安心 about the 見通し for growth and the 傾向 for 利益／興味 率s.

It's about 在庫／株-選ぶing
Richard Plackett, UK 基金 経営者／支配人 for Blackrock: It will be about 在庫／株 選択 more than ever before for professional 投資家s. In order for companies to make good returns they are going to have to grow under their own steam. 投資家s have put big 強調 on 質 companies. I am bullish but in a relaxed way ? there is 範囲 for 公正，普通株主権s to move higher from here over the next couple of years.

株 will be higher in a year
Richard Buxton, Schroders' 長，率いる of UK 公正，普通株主権s: 財政上の markets are passing through a 特に unpleasant 嵐／襲撃する at the moment. This will no 疑問 give 負わせる to the 耐えるs' argument that we are seeing the start of a long 延滞の and 重要な 下降 in the 消費者 and a 重要な retracement in 公正，普通株主権s.

However, while it is possible that the worst is not yet over, we have not been shaken from our 有罪の判決 that the UK 公正，普通株主権 market will be higher in 12 months' time.