City 焦点（を合わせる）: 恐れるs for wilting 米国紙幣

By Sam Fleming for MailOnline
Updated: 09:07 BST, 27 May 2009

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The Chinese 首相's words were both blunt and 前例のない. His country had stashed the 本体，大部分／ばら積みの of its foreign 交流 reserves in US dollars.

Red 警報: The Chinese leadership 恐れるs that a dollar 衝突，墜落 could 乱打する the country's 広大な foreign 交流 reserves

But with America's economy enfeebled and 塀で囲む Street on its 膝s, the People's 共和国 was getting nervous.

'We have lent a 抱擁する 量 of money to the US,' said Wen Jiabao. 'Of course we are 関心d about the safety of our 資産s. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried.'

The candid words in March were an 表現 of what 仲買人s and 投資家s have long known: 中国 is hugely 攻撃を受けやすい to a dollar 衝突，墜落. But the Chinese 首相's 決定／判定勝ち（する） to 問題／発行する such a public 宣言 was seismic in political 条件.

It crystallised the 恐れるs 疫病／悩ますing 仲買人s, 投資家s and policymakers around the world: could the imploding 負債 泡 in the US bring the world's reserve 通貨 clattering to the earth?

There are real grounds for 関心. America's 予算 赤字 is 長，率いるd above 12% of its 国家の 生産（高）, and its 国家の 負債 could 攻撃する，衝突する 100% of 甚だしい／１２ダース 国内の 製品 早期に in the next １０年間.

利益／興味 率s have been 削除するd to 近づく-無 levels as the 連邦の Reserve fights a 深い 後退，不況.

The 政府 has 誓約（する）d over $10trillion fighting the 塀で囲む Street 炉心溶融. Against such a 荒涼とした 背景 the dollar - 伝統的に the world's most important 安全な 港／避難所 - looks 不正に （名声などを）汚すd.

Even the 続けざまに猛撃する has fought its way to six-month highs against the 米国紙幣 in 最近の days, rising as high as $1.59 yesterday, as the woes of the US （太陽，月の）食／失墜 the gruesome growth and 負債 人物／姿／数字s in Britain.

To some 専門家s, 恐れるs the dollar could 戦車／タンク look overblown 簡単に because the 経済的な 見通し どこかよそで is 平等に torrid.

経済学者 略奪する Carnell of ING said: 'If this is a beauty contest の中で the major 通貨s, then all of them are ugly.'

It is hardly in the 利益／興味s of 中国, with its $2trillion of US 資産s, to start a 殺到 away from the dollar, he argues. 'It would be cutting off their nose to spite their 直面する.'

But on a longer-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 見解（をとる）, the 米国紙幣's status as primus の間の pares could 井戸／弁護士席 be in 終点 拒絶する／低下する.

Patterns of world 貿易（する） are 転換ing, with America becoming いっそう少なく 支配的な as 現れるing markets such as 中国, Brazil and India grow. The euro has 伸び（る）d clout on the markets since its 創造 at the end of the last １０年間. And countries like 中国 are 明確に uneasy about their vulnerability to the 運命／宿命 of one, rather sick-looking economy.

The country's central bank 長，指導者 Zhou Xiaochuan has recently 示唆するd creating a new 全世界の reserve 通貨.

によれば 経済学者 Gerard Lyons of 基準 借り切る／憲章d, there is 証拠 that the Chinese have been 静かに diversifying their foreign 交流 holdings ever since 2004.

Their 病弱なing affections for the dollar are 株d in other countries.

'It is like a slow-燃やすing fuse,' Lyons said. 'It is a thing people tell you in 私的な. The feeling is that countries don't want to have as much of their reserves in dollars.'

The question is what is the 代案／選択肢? One possible answer is the Chinese yuan - if the People's 共和国 can 支える its stellar growth trajectory.

But that's a big if. And on 最高の，を越す of this, Beijing would first have to 許す its 通貨 to become fully 転換できる, 緩和するing some of its アイロンをかける 支配する on its 財政上の markets.

This is some way off. によれば UBS's George Magnus, the history of the 続けざまに猛撃する 示唆するs it could be years before the dollar's reserve status 直面するs a 支えるd challenge.

Britain's 経済的な 最高位 was already fatally 弱めるd by the end of World War One, he argues, but 'the 続けざまに猛撃する didn't really 嘘（をつく） 負かす／撃墜する and die until the Suez 危機.'

Magnus 追加するs: 'The dollar's status will 徐々に erode, but the pace will be glacial.'