'Fed 割引 率 引き上げ（る） will 上げる dollar'

By This Is Money
Updated: 11:49 BST, 19 February 2010

?

Last night the US 連邦の Reserve Bank 突然に raised its 割引 率 by 25bps to 0.75%. It happened after the markets had の近くにd but 公正，普通株主権 markets in Asia 反応するd negatively and European bourses also opened 負かす／撃墜する.

'信任投票': F&C 投資s' Ted Scott

The question 存在 asked is does it mean that the 利益／興味 率 cycle has now turned because the rising cost of money is usually a more difficult 環境 for 公正，普通株主権 markets.

Also, the rise in markets that we have seen since last March has been fuelled by the extra liquidity 供給するd by central banks from their 積極性 accommodative 通貨の 政策 so could this news signal the end of that 刺激?

Ted Scott, Director of UK 公正，普通株主権 戦略 at F&C 投資s, tries to 供給する some answers.

What has happened and what the reaction has been?

The 割引 率 is the '刑罰，罰則 率' that the Fed 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金s banks for 捜し出すing 緊急 基金s from the central bank. It is not the main 利益／興味 率 known as the Fed 基金s 率 (FFR) although there is usually a correlation between the two.

The 割引 率 usually 始める，決める a 1% 賞与金 to the FFR but after the 崩壊（する） of 耐える Stearns at the beginning of the credit crunch the Fed 減ずるd the 賞与金 to 25bps and the 最大限 duration of the 貸付金 was 増加するd to 90 days. Last night the duration of the 貸付金 was also 減ずるd to the usual 夜通し 同様に.

Yesterday's 告示 was a 部分的な／不平等な 逆転 of the 条件s that have 存在するd since 耐える Stearns' demise. It is not a formal 強化するing of 通貨の 政策 as an 増加する in the FFR itself would have been, and the central bank was at 苦痛s to make that （疑いを）晴らす in the 声明 …を伴ってing the 告示.

It is an 初期の step to the normalisation of 通貨の 条件s that have been exceptional during the credit crunch.

It is not a total surprise as it was foreshadowed in the FOMC 会合 last week in Ben Benanke's (the Fed Chairman) 声明. At th e 会合 the 委員会 spent time discussing how to normalise 通貨の 政策 含むing 出口 戦略s with regard to the 注射 of liquidity into the economy through its credit 緩和 政策.

にもかかわらず, the タイミング of the 告示 was a surprise to markets.

The 早期に market reaction, however, has been to regard it is an 早期に step of de facto 通貨の 強化するing. Just as in 中国 the 当局 there have 教えるd banks to raise their reserve 必要物／必要条件s before a possible rise in the 公式の／役人 lending 率 later so the move by the Fed is regarded as bringing 今後 the date for a rise in the FFR.

In reaction to the news not only have 公正，普通株主権 markets 軟化するd but also the dollar has 強化するd and US 財務省 産する／生じるs have been 示すd higher.

What are the 関わりあい／含蓄s of the change in the 割引 率?

Although the prospect of higher 率s will be 見解（をとる）d with trepidation by the markets it is likely that the FFR will remain on 持つ／拘留する for some time yet; indeed the Fed 声明 said as much last night.

Although there are encouraging 調印するs of 経済的な 回復, 通貨の 条件s still remain soft and the インフレーション 率 is low with the 脅し of デフレ still high on the 協議事項.

The move does have signify that the 通貨の 当局 have 増加するing 信用／信任 in the 回復 in the US economy. This is 確認するd by the 広大な 大多数 of 最近の 大型の data, most 特に strong GDP 人物／姿／数字s. This and other 指示する人（物）s point to a 漸進的な 改良 in the economy and are in contrast to 類似の data in the UK and Europe.

Another important read across from last night's news is the Fed's 政策 to the dollar. Last year the 当局 were 用意が出来ている to 許す a 政策 of 'benign neglect' whereby the dollar 弱めるd 終始一貫して on foreign 為替市場s and so helped the US 輸出（する）ing 部門.

This year the dollar has had a good 決起大会／結集させる and the Fed has 発表するd this change of 通貨の condi tions at a time of 支えるd dollar strength. Therefore, the Fed must be happy to see a stronger dollar にもかかわらず its 最近の 評価 as the 予期 of tighter 通貨の 条件s will only 追加する to the attraction of the 米国紙幣.

For 公正，普通株主権s this is good news for dollar earners that 苦しむd last year with its 証拠不十分. It should also help appease 中国 that has been 関心d about the 証拠不十分 of the dollar because of its large holdings of US 資産s in 財務省 社債s.

中国's 明言する／公表する bank has sold US 社債s recently and it maybe that the Fed is 関心d about this becoming an endemic 傾向, 特に at a time of 高くする，増すing geo-political 緊張s.

結論

全体にわたる, the move last night is a 信任投票 in the US economy that has been surprising on the upside recently 連合させるd with continued good 法人組織の／企業の 業績／成果 during the 最近の results season.