全世界の 貿易（する） war 延期するd? A window of 適切な時期 has 現れるd for markets before two major 論争s come to a 長，率いる, says ALEX SEBASTIAN

By Alex Sebastian for This is Money

Updated:

As the ウイルス 危機 fades for now at least, an old friend is once again in the 財政上の markets 運動ing seat.

While the Covid-19 pandemic has had a 抱擁する and sudden 衝撃 on the 全世界の economy, it is a much shorter 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 problem than a serious 決裂 in 全世界の 貿易（する） would be.

The market had 定価つきの in the pandemic with 激しい 落ちるs by late March, 井戸／弁護士席 before it 現実に 頂点（に達する）d and it has 大部分は been 上向き since then. 広大な central bank 刺激 対策 have helped 意味ありげに in this regard of course.

Strong US 職業s numbers on Friday saw markets 殺到する again at the end of an already gung 売春婦 week. The S&P 500, for example, の近くにd at 3,194, up from its 最近の low of 2,200, while the FTSE 100 攻撃する，衝突する 6,484, having been as low as 4,994.?

The FTSE 100 has climbed above 6,400 after sinking to lows of under 5000 in March

The FTSE 100 has climbed above 6,400 after 沈むing to lows of under 5000 in March

The S&P 500 has recovered the majority of its lost ground from the coronavirus plunge

The S&P 500 has 回復するd the 大多数 of its lost ground from the coronavirus 急落（する），激減（する）

The pandemic will have to radically alter its 現在の downward trajectory if it is to trouble 投資家s 大いに again.?

As 進歩 is made with ワクチンs and 治療s, and 報告（する）／憶測s 現れる that SARS-CoV-2 is losing its potency, a resurgence of the ウイルス grows いっそう少なく likely, thankfully.

The 危険 now will be the hangover from the lockdowns, ーに関して／ーの点でs of 失業, 法人組織の／企業の struggles and the winding 負かす／撃墜する of support 計画／陰謀s. The fact that America has already returned to 報告（する）／憶測ing rising 職業s numbers is encouraging though.?

What is 確かな to continue to be a 支配的な 主題 in the markets is world 貿易（する）.

Unless there is a resurgence in 感染s around the world, our microscopic enemy will continue to be 影を投げかけるd by 貿易（する） 緊張s and 緊張するd 国際関係.

A new and even more uneasy 引き分け has 現れるd between the two biggest 経済大国s in the world, the USA and 中国.

With international 緊張s already 高くする，増すd by 中国’s 役割 in the origin of the pandemic, its 決定／判定勝ち（する） to change the 合法的な status of Hong Kong could have 行為／法令／行動するd as the 誘発する／引き起こす for America and others to introduce 激しい 許可／制裁s.

The Donald Trump 行政 has stepped 支援する from the brink on this though for now, much to the 救済 of the 財政上の markets. A 引き分け, however 壊れやすい, is infinitely より望ましい to an all-out 貿易（する） war.

US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping attend a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Osaka last year

US 大統領 Donald Trump and 中国's 大統領 Xi Jinping …に出席する a 会合 on the sidelines of the G20 首脳会議 in Osaka last year

With what looks to be a closely fought American 選挙 coming in November and an economy reeling from the pandemic-induced lockdown, the US 政府 looks 始める，決める to let things simmer with 中国 until after the 投票（する）s are cast.

Should Trump 勝利，勝つ in November though, we can 推定する／予想する a very combative December and start to 2021. 競争相手 候補者 Joe Biden's 姿勢 is 不明瞭な at this 行う／開催する／段階.

Some way behind in 規模 and 全世界の importance, the second big 貿易（する） flashpoint in the world is 権利 here in the 部隊d Kingdom.?

Here too though, there is breathing room for the 全世界の economy and 財政上の markets.

As 一連の会議、交渉／完成する after 一連の会議、交渉／完成する of 貿易（する） 取引，協定 会談 between London and Brussels continue it feels very much like we have been here before やめる recently.

British lead negotiator David Frost and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier

British lead 交渉者 David 霜 and his EU 相当するもの Michel Barnier

Nothing is likely to become （疑いを）晴らす until November at the earliest, and probably not until の直前に Christmas.?

With 最近の history as our guide, what we are likely to see is another six months of posturing, 敵意を持った off the 記録，記録的な／記録する 要点説明s to さまざまな マスコミ and a few public tantrums.

Only when the real 最終期限 of 31st December is much closer, will we know whether the two 味方するs can put their 相互の 経済的な 利益／興味 above the politics and strike a 貿易（する） 取引，協定, or not.

In the 合間, 投資家s are likely to look past the headlines coming out of the 会談.??

Some links in this article may be (v)提携させる(n)支部，加入者 links. If you click on them we may earn a small （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限. That helps us 基金 This Is Money, and keep it 解放する／自由な to use. We do not 令状 articles to 促進する 製品s. We do not 許す any 商業の 関係 to 影響する／感情 our 編集（者）の independence.

Most watched Money ビデオs

Comments 21

株 what you think

  見解（をとる） all

The comments below have not been 穏健なd.

  見解（をとる） all

The 見解（をとる）s 表明するd in the contents above are those of our 使用者s and do not やむを得ず 反映する the 見解（をとる）s of MailOnline.

We are no longer 受託するing comments on this article.