The dollar: ‘our 通貨, your problem’

By This Is Money
Updated: 17:44 BST, 20 October 2010

?

This is the week we get to hear about 削減（する）s.

Instead of me 推測するing about them, it will be better to comment on what 現実に is 明らかにする／漏らすd, but even then the 詳細（に述べる） is ありそうもない to be there and it could take many weeks before we really know the 影響s.

More すぐに, and far more importantly for all of us, are the continuing 関心s over the 不均衡s in 全世界の 通貨s and 全世界の 貿易（する）.

There is now general 協定 that these 不均衡s are 'a （疑いを）晴らす and 現在の danger' to the 全世界の economy and that political platitudes are not going to make these problems go away.

Much hope has been put upon the next G20 会合 in South Korea in November (as …に反対するd to the controlled G1 会合 in North Korea) but I 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑う 確かな 堅固に守るd positions have been 井戸／弁護士席 用意が出来ている for that already.

So will the US 当局 just 根気よく wait for a 合意 to arise or even more 根気よく を待つ the acquiescence of the Chinese 政府? ? The answer is no.

With the 差し迫った 選挙 the US 行政 will wish to be seen to be in 支配（する）／統制する and taking 活動／戦闘. So what are the 代案／選択肢s? Another 刺激 一括? There seems little appetite for this, 特に with the rising 負債 levels.

However there is one thing the US can do and 事実上 without any 強制 ? print more dollars.

Another 一連の会議、交渉／完成する of quantitative 緩和, 愛称d QE2, would seem to be on the cards.

This then could 押し進める the dollar 負かす／撃墜する その上の (the 影響s are already 存在 seen) and the developing nations will 苦しむ the 苦痛 of their 通貨s rising (Brazil 特に, where the real has 増加するd in value against the dollar by 4.76%, and the Thai baht by 12% over the past year) and see their 輸出（する）s becoming いっそう少なく 競争の激しい.

The one exception to that would be 中国, where the 'controlled basket' would 制限する much of this 衝撃.

The result of this would be that 輸入するs into the US should be more expensive and thus 輸入する inflationary elements into the economy.

This would then be a far more 積極的な 通貨 政策 by the Americans, but it would 許す them to inflate their way out of the problem ? and of course in doing so do everything they can to av oid デフレ.

As for the others? 井戸／弁護士席 either they fight to cap the rise in their 通貨s (and we know how expensive, wasteful and 最終的に useless often such 政策s are) or see their 輸出（する）s become いっそう少なく 競争の激しい and 結局最後にはーなる collecting more 平価を切り下げるing dollars.

As for the Chinese they too will 苦しむ as their reserves, now standing at around $2,650bn, a good 割合 of which are in dollars, will be 平等に 弱めるd.

As the reserve 通貨 to the world (at least for the time 存在) the US can carry out such 活動／戦闘s and it reminds of the 引用する I have used before from 大統領 Nixon's 財務省 長官 John Connolly. 'Our 通貨, your problem'.