City 分裂（する） on 率 rise タイミング

By Jane Padgham
Updated: 00:00 BST, 2 April 2004

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CITY 経済学者s are 分裂（する） 事実上 負かす／撃墜する the middle on whether the Bank of England will 解除する 利益／興味 率s next week, を強調するing the 窮地 直面するd by the 率-setting 通貨の 政策 委員会.

Five of 12 主要な Square Mile 分析家s quizzed by the London Evening 基準 believe the cos t of borrowing will be raised by a ４半期/4分の1-point to 4.25% on Thursday. The other seven 推定する／予想する the MPC to wait another month before pulling the 率s 誘発する／引き起こす.

Half the 専門家s 調査するd believe 率s will have risen to 4.75% by the end of the year, in line with money-market 期待s. The others think they will be lower.

The 頂点（に達する） of the 率 cycle is put at anywhere between 4.25% and 5.75%, with 経済学者s divided on how quickly the 住宅 and borrowing にわか景気s will 冷静な／正味の, 同様に as the 見通し for インフレーション.

Simon Rubinsohn at Gerrard, 予報するing 率s will rise next week, said the Bank was becoming ますます 関心d about house prices and 世帯 負債.

'I don't see any 推論する／理由 for the MPC to 持つ／拘留する 支援する,' he said. 'It has done a pretty good 職業 over the past few weeks of raising 期待s about higher 率s. There is no shock value in moving now, so why not go for it?'

Jonathan Loynes at 資本／首都 経済的なs agreed. 'The MPC is 格闘するing with worries about 負債 and はびこる 消費者 spending versus the strength of the 交流 率 and low インフレーション. But 負債 worries are 支配するing,' he said.

Brian Hilliard at Societe Generale said 人物／姿／数字s yesterday showing mortgage 公正，普通株主権 撤退 is running at 記録，記録的な／記録する levels were '深く，強烈に worrying'.

He 追加するd: 'This 最高潮の場面s the fact that November and February's 率 増加するs have had no 衝撃. An 即座の move would signal to the 消費者 that borrowing on this 規模 can't continue.'

But Geoff 刑事s at 王室の Bank of Scotland 推定する／予想するs the MPC to wait until May. He said 可決する・採択するing a more 緊急の approach to raising 率s 危険s 押し進めるing up the 続けざまに猛撃する and choking off the 製造業の 回復.

David Hillier at Barclays 資本／首都 is also plumping for a May move. '[Bank 知事 Mervyn] King has 繰り返して given the steer that 率s will go up 徐々に when the インフレーション 予測（する） is rolled on one ４半期/4分の1,' he said.

The MPC publishes its next 年４回の インフレーション 報告（する）／憶測 in May.

示す Cliffe at ING 財政上の Markets said the MPC will hope to 冷静な／正味の the 住宅 market through 言葉の 介入 rather than 政策 強化するing.