What's in 蓄える／店 for 2004?

By Jane Padgham
Updated: 00:00 BST, 6 January 2004

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THE Bank of England's 通貨の 政策 委員会 (MPC) kicks off its first 会合 of 2004 tomorrow with tales of a 哀れな Christmas for retailers （犯罪の）一味ing in its ears.

The grim 報告（する）／憶測s have 誘発する／引き起こすd hopes that the MPC will leave 利益／興味 率s 不変の at 3.75% this week, although a rise in the cost of borrowing withi n the next few months is seen as 必然的な.

Bank 副 知事 Sir Andrew Large has already 投票（する）d for a ４半期/4分の1-point 増加する, at December's 会合.

Jane Padgham takes a look at what will be on the MPC's 協議事項 before it 配達するs its 判決 at midday on Thursday.

High Street spending

Festive spirit was in short 供給（する） on the High Street over the Christmas period. With 消費者 信用／信任 knocked by November's rise in 利益／興味 率s - the first 増加する in nearly four years - retailers were 軍隊d into 激しい, 早期に 割引ing to 転換 在庫／株.

小売 consultancy 判決 has 予報するd that the 堅い times will continue into 2004 as 消費者s rein in their spending when credit card 法案s arrive.

消費者 負債

負債 has become an ますます 激しい millstone 一連の会議、交渉／完成する 消費者s' necks, although there are 試験的な 調印するs that the Bank's 警告s about people overstretching themselves may finally be starting to 沈む in.

最新の 公式の／役人 人物／姿／数字s showed mortgage lending rose by £8.6bn in November against £9.5bn in October in the wake of November's ４半期/4分の1-point 増加する in the cost of borrowing. The 減産／沈滞 （機の）カム after mortgage 公正，普通株主権 撤退 殺到するd to a 記録，記録的な／記録する £13.4bn in the third ４半期/4分の1 of last year.

住宅 market

Homeowners enjoyed more hefty 伸び（る）s in the value of their 所有物／資産／財産s in 2003, with house price インフレーション ending the year at 15.6%, によれば lending 巨大（な） 全国的な.

However, 2004 is 推定する／予想するd to be いっそう少なく lucrative, with higher 利益／興味 率s 誘発するing a market 減産／沈滞.

全国的な has pencilled in house price インフレーション of 9% in 2004, while mortgage 競争相手 Halifax is 予報するing 8%. Most 分析家s are 確信して that a 所有物／資産／財産 衝突，墜落 has been 避けるd.

Growth

（ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長 Gordon Brown was 手渡すd an 早期に Christmas 現在の when the Office for 国家の 統計（学） 昇格d its GDP growth 見積（る）s for the second month in a 列／漕ぐ／騒動.

It now believes Britain's economy e xpanded by 0.8% in the third ４半期/4分の1 against a 事前の 0.7% 見積（る）, meaning the （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長's 2% growth 予測 for 2003 is almost certainly in the 捕らえる、獲得する.

Faster growth is 推定する／予想するd this year, with both 製造業の and the large services 部門 均衡を保った to 利益.

インフレーション

The MPC has a new 的 to 攻撃する，衝突する and a new 手段 to grapple with after Gordon Brown 転換d the goalposts in his Pre-予算 報告（する）／憶測.

Both Bank 知事 Mervyn King and the 財務省 主張する that the new 2% 的 on the 消費者 Prices 索引 will not make much difference to 利益／興味 率s, but many City 経済学者s believe the change is 同等（の） to a tacit 緩和するing of 政策.

消費者物価指数 is 現在／一般に only 1.3% and has been below 2% for more than five years.

英貨の／純銀の

In the past month the 続けざまに猛撃する has 伸び（る）d eight cents against the dollar as the 米国紙幣's sharp slide has driven 英貨の／純銀の to 11-year highs above $1.80.

Thankfully, the dollar's 宙返り／暴落する has 同時に起こる／一致するd with a 選ぶ-up in the US economy, meaning Britain's 輸出業者s have not 苦しむd 減ずるd competitiveness. They have also 利益d from lower 生産／産物 costs, as many raw 構成要素s are 定価つきの in dollars. Against the euro, 英貨の／純銀の has been 安定した at about 70p to the 選び出す／独身 通貨.

全世界の economy and 株式市場s

The long-先触れ（する）d 全世界の 経済的な 回復 has finally taken root, propelling 株式市場s around the world higher.

London's FTSE 100 索引 of 主要な 株 ended 2003 with a 10-day winning streak - its longest 連続する 決起大会／結集させる in more than six years.

The Footsie 得点する／非難する／２０d a 13.6% 伸び（る） on the year - its first 年次の rise since 1999 - as it bounced 支援する from the worst 耐える market for 在庫／株s in a 世代.

判決

Disappointing Christmas sales and low インフレーション are 推定する／予想するd to keep 利益／興味 率s at 3.75% for the second month in a 列／漕ぐ／騒動 this week.

However, the stay of 死刑執行 is likely to be 簡潔な／要約する, and many in the City 予報する a quart er-point 増加する in the cost of borrowing next month to 同時に起こる／一致する with the Bank's February インフレーション 報告（する）／憶測.

Faster growth and 現在進行中の 関心s about 消費者 負債 will 軍隊 the MPC to 適用する the ブレーキs again later this year.