Wobbly road to 回復

By Daily Mail Reporter
Updated: 00:00 BST, 20 June 2003

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LAST night's shake-out in 株 prices was probably no more than 利益（をあげる）-taking, but it reminds us that we are not out of the 支持を得ようと努めるd yet. This is timely, as the mood in the City was growing 危険に over-楽観的な.

After more than three years of gloom, some 救済 is 理解できる. There is a good 取引，協定 for investo rs to be cheerful about. The London 株式市場 has still bounced 25% from its March 12 low. The value of the 最高の，を越す 100 在庫／株s has 回復するd by £130bn to £1 一兆. This 狭くするs those mind-boggling 年金 赤字s a little.

The danger of 2003 becoming the fourth year of a 耐える market has receded. But it has by no means disappeared. The 最新の 統計（学） show the British economy is caught in a tricky 移行.

For six years, 経済成長 has been 過度に 扶養家族 on a heady rise in 消費者 spending while 産業 languished. When critics called this unbalanced, the Bank of England riposted that unbalanced growth was better than no growth at all.

Now 消費者 spending is losing 速度(を上げる） while 産業 has yet to kick into life. 小売 sales 容積／容量s fell 0.1% in May. The underlying 年次の rise has slowed from 4%-加える last year to 3.4%.

Simon Rubinsohn at 基金 経営者／支配人 Gerrard says: '消費者s' 警告を与える is 理解できる. 普通の／平均（する） 収入s are rising at 3.25%, only just ahead of インフレーション, and there have been 税金 増加するs. For many people, take-home 支払う／賃金 in real 条件 is probably below what it was last year.'

産業 should be 利益ing from 英貨の／純銀の's 7.5% 落ちる against the euro since January. But the CBI's June 調査する shows no 調印する of it. Order 調書をとる／予約するs have 改善するd only わずかに and the 力／強力にする to raise prices still seems weak, though the lower 続けざまに猛撃する should be giving them 肘 room.

So, rather than moving toward better-balanced growth, we are at 危険 of having 女性 growth that is still 支配するd by 消費者 spending. Since this is fuelled by 負債, the 恐れる is that it cannot last.

Bank lending 人物／姿／数字s 示唆する it is 持つ／拘留するing up pretty 井戸／弁護士席. Mortgage lending 攻撃する，衝突する a new 頂点（に達する） of £21.5bn in May. More than half was remortgaging, as borrowers moved to cheaper 利益／興味 率s. That is sensible; the main worry is how few home 貸付金s (30%) are going to first-time 買い手s.

Rather more worrying is why the 落ちる of 利益／興味 率s to 50-year lows has not galvan ised the Western world to 回復. US 率s are 負かす／撃墜する to 1.25%, with talk of 0.75%, and have yet to do the trick. Instead, foreigners are cutting their US 投資, the 予算 赤字 is 長，率いるing for a mindboggling £180bn, and the 社債 market is overheating.

Cheap money has not 生き返らせるd Europe. In Britain, it is 漏れるing into the 住宅 market rather than stoking the 解雇する／砲火／射撃s of 製造業の. Unsurprisingly, the biggest borrower of all - the 政府 - is also tucking in. The public 部門 borrowed a 逮捕する £5.8bn in May, above the £4bn 推定する／予想するd.

The 月毎の 人物／姿／数字s tend to be erratic. Nonetheless, 政府 departments' spending is racing 10% ahead of year and 税金 歳入 is as flat as a pancake with a 穴をあける. （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長 Gordon Brown must wonder whether he was 権利 to 加速する spending so hard.

Bank of England boss Sir Eddie George is supporting him on this, 同様に as on euro foot-dragging. The 相互の 賞賛 between Bank and 財務省 must be at a historical 頂点（に達する）.

It is 理解できる that Brown and George are 満足させるd with their 業績／成就s, as the 知事 長，率いるs for 退職. It will 落ちる to his 後継者 Mervyn King to 裁判官 whether low 利益／興味 率s alone can solve our problems.

Europhobia
TONY Blair's hopes that 対立 to the euro would 崩壊する once he began （選挙などの）運動をするing look unreal. The 最新の Barclays 資本／首都/NOP 投票 設立する that even if the 実験（する）s were passed and 政府 recommended 入ること／参加（者）, 52% would 投票（する） against and 35% for.

The 17% 大多数 against is up from 10% in May. The euro （選挙などの）運動をする has a mountain to climb.