Britain 'best placed' to 天候 war

By THIS IS MONEY
Updated: 00:00 BST, 13 January 2003

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BRITAIN would 天候 the 経済的な 影響s of a war with Iraq better than its European Union partners, によれば a 報告（する）／憶測 published today, but rising oil prices could 縮む the economy by 0.4%.

Oxford 経済的な 予測（する）ing said Britain's 利益／興味 率 政策 and stronger 商売／仕事 and 消費者 需要・要求する should keep its growth above the eurozone's.

In the event of a 'benign' war, where Iraqi oil 生産／産物 中止するd for three months and other oil-producing countries took up the slack, Britain's 甚だしい／１２ダース 国内の 製品 would grow twice as 急速な／放蕩な as the eurozone's at 2.4% in 2003, OEF said.

In a worst-事例／患者 シナリオ Germany's troubled economy would 契約 by 1.5%, almost four times faster than Britain's, which would 縮む by just 0.4%.

Oil prices 直面する the 二塁打 whammy of the 脅し of war and on-going disruption to 供給（する）s from Venezuela, which 供給（する）s about 13% of oil in the US, where 天然のまま 在庫s have fallen to 近づく 26-year lows.

Opec's 週末 協定 to 増加する 生産／産物 brings the cartel's 公式の／役人 生産／産物 天井 to 24.5m バーレル／樽s a day. US February light 天然のまま bounced 支援する up to $31.80 a バーレル／樽 after dipping to $31.20. But markets have 焦点（を合わせる）d on the 現在進行中の strike in Venezuela which has 削減（する） about two million バーレル／樽s a day from world 供給（する）. 仲買人s also worry that Opec has little spare capacity.