Never mind borrowing - watch 税金s

By DAN ATKINSON, MAIL ON SUNDAY ECONOMICS EDITOR
Updated: 00:00 BST, 1 December 2002

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FORMER 王室の hangers-on may still be the frontrunners in the Disloyalty 火刑／賭けるs, but the erstwhile Gordon Brown Fan Club is hard on their heels. It is not so much 好天 that these 'friends' in the City, Westminster and どこかよそで seem to 需要・要求する, but blistering Saharan 日光. At the first 減少（する） of rain, they abandon the （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長 and 長，率いる for cover.

Now that many of th ose who あられ／賞賛するd Brown as the new William Gladstone are 宣言するing how useless he is, it 落ちるs to those of us who were always 懐疑的な of New 労働's '経済的な 奇蹟' to 開始する some sort of defence. 分析家s who were 'shocked' by the 近づく-二塁打ing of the （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長's borrowing 必要物／必要条件 for 2002-03 must have led very 避難所d lives.

Plenty of commentators 警告するd at the time of his 予算 in April that his 予測（する） of £11 billion 逮捕する borrowing for the 現在の year was 高度に 楽観的な. By raising his planned overdraft to £20 billion, Brown grudgingly agreed. He went その上の and raised his borrowing total for the years 2002-07 from £72 billion to £101 billion. Even these 改訂するd 人物／姿／数字s are probably an underestimate, given that they are based on growth 予測（する）s almost as unrealistic as those he downgraded in Wednesday's pre-予算 報告（する）／憶測.

支援する in April, he looked for growth of between 2% and 2.5% this year; now he 推定する／予想するs just 1.5%. Next year, where he had been looking for three% to 3.5%, he 推定する／予想するs just 2.5% to 3%. But in 2004, an 初めの 予測（する） of 2.75% has risen to a three to 3.5% 予測 - 効果的に, heroic 楽観主義 in 2003 has become heroic 楽観主義 in 2004.

Andrew Clare, 長，指導者 経済学者 at 保険会社 合法的な & General, reckons these 予測（する）s will be 行方不明になるd, and that, as a result, Brown will need to borrow a その上の £20 billion in 2002-07, on 最高の，を越す of the £101 billion now pencilled in.

But in contrast to the more faint-hearted 分析家s, Clare believes that Brown can borrow the money without 押し進めるing up 利益／興味 率s for the 残り／休憩（する） of us.

'There is enormous institutional 需要・要求する for gilts,' he said, 追加するing that Brown may even be doing the troubled 年金 基金s a favour by 供給（する）ing high 質 政府 paper to help them 会合，会う 未来 義務s.

その上に, as shown by the 財務省's 報告（する）／憶測 also published last week, on international comparisons as to '会計の sustainability', Britain 対策 up rather 井戸／弁護士席 when it comes to 支払う／賃金ing its way rather than building up big 義務／負債s.

To 達成する 絶対の fairness ーに関して／ーの点でs of not 板材ing 未来 世代s with the costs of public goods we are enjoying today, UK 税金s would have to rise by いっそう少なく than 2%, against more than 5% in フラン and about 10% in Germany and the US.

The total 国家の 負債 - even on the new 人物／姿／数字s - is 予測（する） to remain below 33% of 甚だしい／１２ダース 国内の 製品 through to 2007, 井戸／弁護士席 below the 財務省's self-課すd 40% 天井.

Brown's born-again critics would do better to worry rather いっそう少なく about the borrowing and rather more about 課税. While Brown went to 広大な／多数の／重要な lengths to 保証する us that his planned 負債-GDP 割合 was 慎重な, he had rather いっそう少なく to say about the 税金-GDP 割合.

Buried at the 支援する of the 報告（する）／憶測 is a （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する showing the slice of the 国家の cake taken by 税金 and social 安全 出資／貢献s rising-from 36.3% this year to 38.6% by 2008 - the highest level since 1983, when taxcutter Nigel Lawson arrived at the 財務省.

Yet even here, the （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長 has a defence. The 税金-GDP 割合 has moved in a 狭くする 禁止（する）d - from 33% to 39% - during the last ４半期/4分の1-century. True, Kenneth Clarke brought it 負かす／撃墜する to the 底（に届く） of that 禁止（する）d in 1993-1994. But so did Denis Healey in 1978-1979. Real 証拠 of 失敗 is to be 設立する not in the public 財政／金融s but in two areas where Brown's 財務省 is bafflingly proud of itself - the 国内の economy and public service '改革（する）'.

Tucked away on page 169, the 報告（する）／憶測 公式文書，認めるs as a 事柄 of passing 利益／興味 that the 在庫／株 of personal indebtedness 急に上がるd 13% in the year to September and that Britain's already-feeble 貯金 率 is 始める，決める to 拒絶する／低下する this year. On page 177, the balance of 支払い（額）s 赤字 is 予測（する） to 広げる from £19.3 billion this year to £24.3 billion in 2005. In 1997, it was 無. This is Brown's much-vaunted '壇・綱領・公約 of 安定'.

On public services, Brown 雷鳴d-against the firefighters' 行う （人命などを）奪う，主張する while knowing 十分な 井戸／弁護士席 that 支払う／賃金 取引，協定s for the far larger 階級s of Nati onal Health Service 労働者s have already 粉砕するd through the modest five% 限界 laid 負かす／撃墜する by former 銀行業者 Derek Wanless in his 報告（する）／憶測 in April - the 報告（する）／憶測 that 正当化するd Brown's colossal health spending spree. But at least doctors, nurses, porters and others are genuinely 前線-line staff.

どこかよそで in the public 部門, it is becoming ますます （疑いを）晴らす that a hefty chunk of the 財務省's largesse is 存在 soaked up in the 創造 of 職業s of, to put it kindly, doubtful 公共事業（料金）／有用性.

Asked whether we would prefer to 持つ／拘留する on to the 10,000 firefighters lined up for the chop or see them 取って代わるd by the same number of '青年 助言者s' and the like, and you know who would 勝利，勝つ the 投票（する） every time.

But perhaps that is what New 労働 means by 'high 質 public services'. Very little that you 現実に want, but the very best of what you don't.